87storms Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I won't keep clogging up the thread but this was an impressive three hour precip forecast. great storm. we're better at februarys than decembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 great storm. we're better at februarys than decembers. Way better. Not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Way better. Not even close. the southern branch likes us better then, for better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 FROM LAST WINTER... FROM FEB 6 ...six days out Guess which model was the ECMF ones which one was the GFS /? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Is this a trick question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 FROM LAST WINTER... FROM FEB 6 ...six days out Guess which model was the ECMF ones which one was the GFS /? 6dasyout.jpg GFS wax useless with that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 FROM LAST WINTER... FROM FEB 6 ...six days out Guess which model was the ECMF ones which one was the GFS /? 6dasyout.jpg The one labeled "ECMWF" is the GFS. That's my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The one labeled "ECMWF" is the GFS. That's my guess. my guess was going to be the left was just snowfall output of the right. #wxbellproblems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 COULD BE Is this a trick question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 maybe I'm foolish, but regardless what the Euro shows tonight, I think this storm will end up coming west....might not mean meaningful snow for DC, but could be decent for far western burbs.....The GFS doesn't matter to me at all...it is really about one model and its ensembles for the next 48 hours...after that maybe I'll care about other guidance...I don't have any confidence that the GFS is of any use right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Come on guys...keep it together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 Your posts are like smooth jazz...mmm.. I think you have to ask yourself why you would "throw in the towel" on a Saturday storm on a Monday night....And there may be some very good reasons...but that the GFS is warm, weak, OTS does not even make the list.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I don't like the idea of hugging one model but I'm pretty confident whatever the GFS shows is going to be wrong most of the time from this range on an east coast storm risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I don't like the idea of hugging one model but I'm pretty confident whatever the GFS shows is going to be wrong most of the time from this range on an east coast storm risk. You would think we've all been around here long enough to know this. I think its psychological...we wanna see everything on board, even though we know the GFS has difficulty with these types of storms. But who knows...this could be the GFS leading the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 You would think we've all been around here long enough to know this. I think its psychological...we wanna see everything on board, even though we know the GFS has difficulty with these types of storms. But who knows...this could be the GFS leading the way. Could be.. Honestly it's probably closer to most things than the euro ens at this pt. tho we could be minutes away from getting crushed. I dunno.. a correction back NW certainlt isn't unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 00z euro much quicker kicking the 50/50 to the east than the noon run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 You would think we've all been around here long enough to know this. I think its psychological...we wanna see everything on board, even though we know the GFS has difficulty with these types of storms. But who knows...this could be the GFS leading the way. DT sums it up nicely: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 00z euro much quicker kicking the 50/50 to the east than the noon run What hour is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 What hour is that?Start to notice a difference by Thursday 12z or so. Last run had the low lingering and even kinda shifting back west. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Even with the 50/50 moving out faster, it still doesn't want to come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Uh oh.... Euro is no go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 Euro is bizarre...there is no phase...the northern stream energy gets held back over the lakes...weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Euro is flat out weird. Huh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 dude no... thats not correct Uh oh.... Euro is no go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Back to bed. Ugh. Not what I was hoping to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 DT sums it up nicely: That the 24th/25 but looks like inland hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Ar hr 96, the low in the south just slides out. Anyone see hr 120? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The 0z TUESDAY EURO l still slides the Low off the southeast coast that is correct... But the precipitation shield does reach as far north of Washington, DC.. It's also somewhat colder which is not a surprise and shows large areas of of Virginia getting significant snow -- heck even some snow out of this possibly into Richmond.. The western half of Virginia as well as most of Eastern West Virginia and Western North Carolina gets crushed with a pretty big mid DEC snowstorm . The key point here is that even though below is not very well organized and it's not that Italy intense the precipitation shield is significantly you larger and wetter than anything we see on the Canadian war the GFS models . Dont be surprised if once again the European ENSEMBLES are significantly more organize with the system and have a better track further to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 you are a true IDIOT. it takes a new level of stupid for a twit like you to declare victory after ALLLLL of the huge busts on east coast winter storms by the GFS in the day 8 to day 4 time range over the years and for you to declare 5 days out... and the worse thing come dec 22 .. will you show here and say yes the GFS Busted againNo you will disappear HMMM DT EURO sure looks like a disorganized and weak mess. GFS leaading the way big dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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