mitchnick Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The para has had no run to run consistency at all, I wouldn't put much weight on it. after 12Z run of the Euro, officially none of them have had it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Spitting image of Dec 09. GFS spit some light showers at us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 it's monday night and the storm is saturday...We probably shouldn't worry about any model that much.....rational, sane people wouldn't take guidance too seriously until late Wednesday....of course most of us are nuts Problem with a weekend storm is that it makes for a long and painfully drawn out week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 it's monday night and the storm is saturday...We probably shouldn't worry about any model that much.....rational, sane people wouldn't take guidance too seriously until late Wednesday....of course all most of us are nuts FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Problem with a weekend storm is that it makes for a long and painfully drawn out week. it's only painful if it's a bust if it's a hit, we'll have fond memories of the week long chase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 Problem with a weekend storm is that it makes for a long and painfully drawn out week. I'm pretty optimistic about it.....The GFS doesn't mean much at this point with this kind of storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 GGEM looks weaker. These models just don't have a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 UKmet says what storm? Uh oh. Maybe GFS has a clue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Terrible night of runs. Euro fail next? We all seen the euro fail before, but it's Ens with good agreement failing too. ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Euro giving a place 10 feet west of me a foot of snow in the d6-9 range is a pretty common occurrence. Could be a classic case of overamplification followed by overhuggification. To which DT says "damn dude you hve no FOOKKING clue." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Terrible night of runs. Euro fail next? Unless there is an epic turnaround within 24 hours this one might be a wrap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Euro giving a place 10 feet west of me a foot of snow in the d6-9 range is a pretty common occurrence. Could be a classic case of overamplification followed by overhuggification. To which DT says "damn dude you hve no FOOKKING clue." LOL. So true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Sneak peak at the Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Sneak peak at the Euro: From 2009??? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Sneak peak at the Euro: ...and it'll stay locked like that until gametime since it's where we all want it to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 We all seen the euro fail before, but it's Ens with good agreement failing too. ugh. The Euro at worst will tick SE of the 12Z run...and thats probably the worst case scenario, its ensemble agreement was way too good for it to make any sort of big shift...if it did make a bigger shift it would probably be to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Sneak peak at the Euro: Ya if only. More like sneak peak of the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 it's monday night and the storm is saturday...We probably shouldn't worry about any model that much.....rational, sane people wouldn't take guidance too seriously until late Wednesday....of course most of us are nuts I agree with you. It's too early to stress out over minute details. Storm track evolution may be of concern but we aren't in prime time yet, I think the models are still getting a feel for this. Let's see how the dice rolls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Sneak peak at the Euro: 1996? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 1996? naa, dec 2009. 2 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Do you have the Feb. 2010 loop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 1996? kinda looks like 2009...i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 40 minutes for the euro op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 naa, dec 2009. 2 days out. definitely reminded me of 09, the way we got into the bands as it deepened off the coast though i remember more precip shown further north before it came up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Do you have the Feb. 2010 loop? GFS night before (all the ones I have pretty similar in evolution): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I knew that had to be dec 2009, but weenies beat me to it. Anyway, time to go into hibernation for 3 days. I never liked this storm in the first place, and cold air is lacking even if it does come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 So if the euro somehow is back NW, are the other models just that bad or what? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 So if the euro somehow is back NW, are the other models just that bad or what? lol I think the GFS was tossed a few times last year due to convective feedback issues or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I won't keep clogging up the thread but this was an impressive three hour precip forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 some never learn. 0z/ 12z GFS past 3 days has not once showed a any Low on the east coast.. 0z/ 12z HI RES GFS past 3 days has not once showed a any Low on the east coast.. 0Z/ 12Z GEFS past 3 days has not once showed a any Low on the east coast.. the cmc did for 1 run .. kind of so WHERE is the fail??? Terrible night of runs. Euro fail next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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