mappy Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Those of us reading or posting on the message boards were cautiously excited by Wednesday. The general public, though, was kind of like "?!" Friday morning when the warnings got raised and the 12"+ amounts were officially in all the forecasts. Even Thursday evening at a large choir rehearsal, most were aware of the WSWatch, but no one else was thinking of the possibility of 20". I remember leaving my rehearsal that Friday night to go to dinner and checked the warning text; 10-20" for totals. Ahh so crazy. Snow started around 10pm on Frederick and didn't stop until 9-10 the next night. What. A. Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 #desperate yeah, you two are better than everyone else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I know full well the SREF's have been of limited use in the past few years, at least here in the M.A., and the end of the run is a couple % points above useless.....BUT, this 6-hr. precip map at 87 hrs. off the 21 Z run just has love written all over it for the M.A. wrt location, trajectory looking at the 5H and 250mb maps, etc. should this not come to fruition this time, then maybe soon enough in light of the MR ensembles http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_087_precip_p06.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p06&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141215+21+UTC&imageSize=&ps=model I know full well the SREF's have been of limited use in the past few years, at least here in the M.A., and the end of the run is a couple % points above useless.....BUT, this 6-hr. precip map at 87 hrs. off the 21 Z run just has love written all over it for the M.A. wrt location, trajectory looking at the 5H and 250mb maps, etc. should this not come to fruition this time, then maybe soon enough in light of the MR ensembles http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_087_precip_p06.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p06&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141215+21+UTC&imageSize=&ps=model Didn't the SREF pull a couple of wins last winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Didn't the SREF pull a couple of wins last winter? I doubt it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 yeah, you two are better than everyone else Hey you're the one who said it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 you sound like you're at the fat farm for treatment and walking around calling everyone a pig I guess I just don't why anyone makes a comment when somebody posts a model pic Mitch, anybody with the seeds to post the CFS certainly can post the SREFS.... Can I say I don't think the NAM would lead to the weak solution of the GFS? Oops, even I know to not look at that model at that range. Oh well, here's to good global runs tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I doubt it lol Weren't their glory days 09/10? That was the first winter I started tracking storms (joined Eastern that year) and I remember thinking the NAM/SREFs were golden. I'm proudly a weenie now but I was a WEENIE back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Weren't their glory days 09/10? That was the first winter I started tracking storms (joined Eastern that year) and I remember thinking the NAM/SREFs were golden. I'm proudly a weenie now but I was a WEENIE back then. The end of the SREF run is like 36 hours before the storm moves into the immediate area here. I don't think anyone was looking at SREF in this range in 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Weren't their glory days 09/10? That was the first winter I started tracking storms (joined Eastern that year) and I remember thinking the NAM/SREFs were golden. I'm proudly a weenie now but I was a WEENIE back then. they actually did do well that year, but more so in that they lined up with everything once there was a consensus I could be wrong, but I don't think they "led the way" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 just where I want you there's a lot lost between a poster's intent and how a post reads...the shortcomings of this "new" medium I'm glad I'm not young and have to 1) deal with it , and 2) care I'd actually be kinda interested in seeing the members now as it's pretty wet and north compared to the globals. (you made me look). I don't usually look at SREF till like 36-48 out tho and never really at the members unless they are posted. But... fairly confident it's entirely useless to us right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The end of the SREF run is like 36 hours before the storm moves into the immediate area here. I don't think anyone was looking at SREF in this range in 2009. Right, I think we all know they're useless now, but its something to look at until the GFS shows yet another weak solution probably. they actually did do well that year, but more so in that they lined up with everything once there was a consensus I could be wrong, but I don't think they "led the way" Yeah, I don't recall them leading the way, but I remember using them as a guide for QPF trends at the very least, I guess similar to how I use them now. Since it seemed nothing could go wrong that winter and most things trended in our favor, SREFs ended up locked in with most globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Mitch, anybody with the seeds to post the CFS certainly can post the SREFS.... Can I say I don't think the NAM would lead to the weak solution of the GFS? Oops, even I know to not look at that model at that range. Oh well, here's to good global runs tonight. Its ok to discuss any model, especially if you're doing it with caveats and know the biases/weakness/crapiness of said model. Model discussion is different that say, using that model verbatim to forecast. That being said, yeah..it's the NAM..we know it's useless, but I agree with your assessment of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Are "we" getting snow Sat/Sun?good chance but I'm not throwing around hecs analogs yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Right, I think we all know they're useless now, but its something to look at until the GFS shows yet another weak solution probably. Yeah, I don't recall them leading the way, but I remember using them as a guide for QPF trends at the very least, I guess similar to how I use them now. Since it seemed nothing could go wrong that winter and most things trended in our favor, SREFs ended up locked in with most globals. You're thinking of this run 24 hrs. prior to 12/19/09 storm I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Mitch, anybody with the seeds to post the CFS certainly can post the SREFS.... Can I say I don't think the NAM would lead to the weak solution of the GFS? Oops, even I know to not look at that model at that range. Oh well, here's to good global runs tonight. Haha. Yeah I was just pulling the ultimate weenie move and trying to extrapolate the NAM myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Haha. Yeah I was just pulling the ultimate weenie move and trying to extrapolate the NAM myself. just for giggles and to kill time, comparing the 84 hr. NAM for 12Z Friday 700mb RH vs. 12Z Euro Day 4 (12Z Friday), NAM is north http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_700_rh_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=700_rh_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141216+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Gfs is slightly different/better ? LOL...not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Gfs is slightly different/better ? LOL...not much looked better thru 105 hrs. vs. 111 hrs. on the 18z, but I don't have it past 105 yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Gfs is slightly different/better ? LOL...not much I feel like this is all we need to look at to know it was going to be a weak slider again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I'm starting to wonder if they downgraded the old gfs to make the new gfs look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 looked better thru 105 hrs. vs. 111 hrs. on the 18z, but I don't have it past 105 yet its pretty meh..squashed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I'm starting to wonder if they downgraded the old gfs to make the new gfs look better. Unless it's right. Too tired for this. I plan to awake to a glorious Euro run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 yeah, you two are better than everyone else Just joking Mitch. That SREF map made me smile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 the new para looks even worse this run blah. I think this might slide south, for the most part, the models have been trending this further south and it still has many days to trend that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Just joking Mitch. That SREF map made me smile. np Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 I feel like this is all we need to look at to know it was going to be a weak slider again... Spitting image of Dec 09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 the new para looks even worse this run blah. I think this might slide south, for the most part, the models have been trending this further south and it still has many days to trend that way. maybe the precip is right but they just have the maps moved underneath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 xbox better than atari, but a step back from 18z...maybe some light accumulations far NW burbs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The para has had no run to run consistency at all, I wouldn't put much weight on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 16, 2014 Author Share Posted December 16, 2014 The para has had no run to run consistency at all, I wouldn't put much weight on it. it's monday night and the storm is saturday...We probably shouldn't worry about any model that much.....rational, sane people wouldn't take guidance too seriously until late Wednesday....of course most of us are nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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