December 19-21 Storm Thread

[NorthArlington101]

Im more ecouraged than not that the PGFS still shows a potent system, was just pointing out that despite the nice track it is a burbs snow... Gun to my head I think this will be a 6-12 type system 25 mi NW of the cities from DC to NYC.

Make it five and you have a deal.

[EasternUSWX]

Eh may as well throw this in. 

 

[Fozz]

Im more ecouraged than not that the PGFS still shows a potent system, was just pointing out that despite the nice track it is a burbs snow... Gun to my head I think this will be a 6-12 type system 25 mi NW of the cities from DC to NYC.

 

I'd be shocked if Leesburg or even Westminster gets 6-12

[aldie 22]

I'd be shocked if Leesburg or even Westminster gets 6-12

My call...1-2"

[ravensrule]

I'd be shocked if Leesburg or even Westminster gets 6-12

I bet Sparky and High Stakes do.

[Ian]

So want to troll https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/544639988898344960

[Ian]

Couldn't help myself. As usual.

[EasternUSWX]

So want to troll https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/544639988898344960

 

[BristowWx]

Couldn't help myself. As usual.

That was a fun time. I remember some NAM runs that were sick. I also remember the upper levels were colder to start with

[Wonderdog]

Whatever happens with this storm, with the latest EURO op run being a step down thereby raising a big red flag to me, Christmas week seems to continue to show an active and colder pattern.

[Ian]

That was a fun time. I remember some NAM runs that were sick. I also remember the upper levels were colder to start with

One of the best storms I've seen on the East Coast. Up there with anything in NW CT esp since it was cold and powdery. I may still rank snowmageddon slightly above but perhaps more because of the period than the storm.

[BristowWx]

One of the best storms I've seen on the East Coast. Up there with anything in NW CT esp since it was cold and powdery. I may still rank snowmageddon slightly above but perhaps more because of the period than the storm.

I wish I could remember the play by play for that one better. Where was the Euro, GFS, Ukie at this timeframe? Did we have any wonky OP runs that proved wrong five days before? Getting old and can't remember the details.

[gymengineer]

I wish I could remember the play by play for that one better. Where was the Euro, GFS, Ukie at this timeframe? Did we have any wonky OP runs that proved wrong five days before? Getting old and can't remember the details.

If you have time, absolutely read through these old threads compiled by MN Transplant:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42075-links-to-threads-for-past-events/

 

Edited to add-The CWG archives are a great read too:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2009/12/13-week/

[BristowWx]

If you have time, absolutely read through these old threads compiled by MN Transplant:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42075-links-to-threads-for-past-events/

 

Edited to add-The CWG archives are a great read too:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2009/12/13-week/

Thanks dude. I will make time!

[Ginx snewx]

I wish I could remember the play by play for that one better. Where was the Euro, GFS, Ukie at this timeframe? Did we have any wonky OP runs that proved wrong five days before? Getting old and can't remember the details.

NAM for the once a year win on that one

[yoda]

18z GEFS mean looks like it hs more members supporting the para then its OP run based off the 138 and 144 hr SLP

[WinterWxLuvr]

18z GEFS mean looks like it hs more members supporting the para then its OP run based off the 138 and 144 hr SLP

A few of the members are decent but none are really amped up.

[dtk]

when does PARA take over on lead guitar?

 

14 January is the new (tentative) date, I believe.

 

I see that now. It is saying late January, i wonder why they changed it. Maybe ers-wxman can help us out with an exact date.

 

There was an issue discovered with some of the product generation (bufr sounding data, to be specific, I think) and not anything in the model itself.  I don't know of any new issues that have been discovered since then, but I'm also out of the loop now.

[dtk]

Bit OT but is the PGFS going to replace the old GFS on the NCEP page?

I have no idea what you are really asking here....  Once it goes live and is implemented, the PGFS will become the GFS and the current GFS will cease to be run operationally.  All products/files/etc. will be generated on the new version once it is in the operational slot.

[psuhoffman]

Jb is a tool. It would be a sign of the apocalypse if he ever said he didn't like a threat.

[mitchnick]

I know full well the SREF's have been of limited use in the past few years, at least here in the M.A., and the end of the run is a couple % points above useless.....BUT, this 6-hr. precip map at 87 hrs. off the 21 Z run just has love written all over it for the M.A. wrt location, trajectory looking at the 5H and 250mb maps, etc.

should this not come to fruition this time, then maybe soon enough in light of the MR ensembles

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_087_precip_p06.gif&model=sref&area=namer&param=precip_p06&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141215+21+UTC&imageSize=&ps=model

[mappy]

I wish I could remember the play by play for that one better. Where was the Euro, GFS, Ukie at this timeframe? Did we have any wonky OP runs that proved wrong five days before? Getting old and can't remember the details.

I know the Monday before it was only a possibility that it could happen, but Wednesday it was all but a lock. I didn't get much work done that week, was freaking out too much.

[Fozz]

Once DonS compared it to the Knickerbocker storm, I was all but convinced that it would be a HECS.

[nj2va]

I know full well the SREF's have been of limited use in the past few years, at least here in the M.A., and the end of the run is a couple % points above useless.....BUT, this 6-hr. precip map at 87 hrs. off the 21 Z run just has love written all over it for the M.A. wrt location, trajectory looking at the 5H and 250mb maps, etc.

should this not come to fruition this time, then maybe soon enough in light of the MR ensembles

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_087_precip_p06.gif&model=sref&area=namer&param=precip_p06&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141215+21+UTC&imageSize=&ps=model

 

It's in between model runs so what else is there to do but look at SREFs.  

[snowfan]

If you have time, absolutely read through these old threads compiled by MN Transplant:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42075-links-to-threads-for-past-events/

 

Edited to add-The CWG archives are a great read too:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2009/12/13-week/

There's some good stuff in there. For the first of the feb storms that year vortmax tells matt to drop dead in the obs thread. Lots of ppl freaking out about sleet, etc. nothing has changed.

[gymengineer]

I know the Monday before it was only a possibility that it could happen, but Wednesday it was all but a lock. I didn't get much work done that week, was freaking out too much.

Those of us reading or posting on the message boards were cautiously excited by Wednesday. The general public, though, was kind of like "?!" Friday morning when the warnings got raised and the 12"+ amounts were officially in all the forecasts.

Even Thursday evening at a large choir rehearsal, most were aware of the WSWatch, but no one else was thinking of the possibility of 20".

[Fozz]

Once DonS compared it to the Knickerbocker storm, I was all but convinced that it would be a HECS.

 

Here's the thread... it was late Wednesday night.

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/215377-historic-lower-mid-atlantic-snowstorm-increasingly-likely/

 

Actually now that I think about it, I was really shocked at the comparison, and I think it took another day or so until I was fully convinced. I remember being almost in denial mainly because

 

1) such a storm had never happened before in December, and

2) we hadn't had a HECS since 2003, so the possibility of something potentially at the scale of PDII bearing down on us seemed unreal

[Ian]

Put the SREF down and step away from the computer.

[Sparky]

Jb is a tool. It would be a sign of the apocalypse if he ever said he didn't like a threat.

Are "we" getting snow Sat/Sun?

[clueless]

Put the SREF down and step away from the computer.

#desperate