Ji Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Me, the GFS, or both? lol both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 150 -- 999mb and deepening off AC ~200 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 when does PARA take over on lead guitar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 when does PARA take over on lead guitar? 2 days i think. It is supposed to be on Dec 17th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 2 days i think. It is supposed to be on Dec 17th no it was pushed till january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 2 days i think. It is supposed to be on Dec 17th too bad it wasnt today....then we could of said the GFS shows a major storm instead of what the 18z said. Were always 2 days short or something short or whatever we are..too east..to west..too south...too north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 162 993 mb over 40/70 BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 no it was pushed till january I see that now. It is saying late January, i wonder why they changed it. Maybe ers-wxman can help us out with an exact date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Para looks warm though (for coastal plain) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Para looks warm though (for coastal plain) Still trying to figure out the storm, wouldn't worry about that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Para looks warm though (for coastal plain) seem to be handed out easier these days than in the past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Still trying to figure out the storm, wouldn't worry about that right now. it'll probably make some cold air and trend wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 Para looks warm though (for coastal plain) It has a storm...which is what I care about...I'm not sure DC is ever going to be in this one except for maybe a 1-3" type solution...my expectations are different than maybe some others.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 it'll probably make some cold air and trend wetter. Wetter rain? At least we get a small modeled snow thump before it turns over. Silly Para. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Para looks warm though (for coastal plain) Hr 144 is toasty. Sfc for I-95 is 38-41F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 In general, it seems like the Euro Op and the ensembles don't often diverge very much compared to the GEFS and GFS Op. The differences on the 12z runs between the Euro Op and ensembles, particularly when other model systems now agree quite well with the Euro ensembles are a red flag IMO. "DT dislikes this post" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I truthfully don't even really care if the storm happens. I'd go after snow if there's a chance but snow isn't quite the same when it's not your backyard.. at least to me. Odds of it being worthwhile in the city are pretty slim. I'd like to fast forward to the hecs pattern now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 seem to be handed out easier these days than in the past nice snark I'm just looking for a storm at this point....for whatever reason, I am very non-IMBY for this one. Probably because of the low probability of much here other than a nice 1-2"....almost nobody thought this had a chance of being anything legitimate until the Euro 2 days ago....now the possibility that the far NW burbs can get a snowstorm is real, if still in doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 nice snark I'm just looking for a storm at this point....for whatever reason, I am very non-IMBY for this one. Probably because of the low probability of much here other than a nice 1-2"....almost nobody thought this had a chance of being anything legitimate until the Euro 2 days ago....now the possibility that the far NW burbs can get a snowstorm is real, if still in doubt only because I consider you one of the top snow forecasters here. but i'm not that much fun anymore with snow forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Para clown map. Yeah, if you thought you were getting 8-12 in the city your going to be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 it'll probably make some cold air and trend wetter. Ian, I can never tell when you're trolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Ian, I can never tell when you're trolling it's better that way. in this case i was trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Para clown map. Yeah, if you thought you were getting 8-12 in the city your going to be disappointed. Thanks, I wasn't sure but I'm glad you set us straight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 um 2 things 1st you might wnat to be less dogmatic here.. we finally have a 1 run fo the GS .. the 13km r one -- that actually has clouds and precip and Low... so give it some time to catch upnot any runs of the op EURO has down 8-12" in the I-95 cities Para clown map. Yeah, if you thought you were getting 8-12 in the city your going to be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 um why? "DT dislikes this post" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 only because I consider you one of the top snow forecasters here. but i'm not that much fun anymore with snow forecasts. it's hard when we all live in different areas and we all have different expectations. In the end there is never any "we"..it is every man for himself..lol...my was over the top, but I am glad the Para and Euro ENS aren't caving...still of course at a long lead time with model skill somewhat low....SInce I post a lot, I should probably put it out there....I am looking for somewhere west/NW of me to get slammed so I can do a quick chase. So my agenda may be different than others...I need to try and be more agnostic toward the solutions....but my usually imby-ism is not really there this time. Even with subforums there is no "we". I hate the word "we" or "us". I try to use "DC" when I post...for this storm need to be careful to talk about which region I am referring to....The latest guidance is a nice departure from the OP Euro which nailed Central NC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 it's hard when we all live in different areas and we all have different expectations. In the end there is never any "we"..it is every man for himself..lol...my was over the top, but I am glad the Para and Euro ENS aren't caving...still of course at a long lead time with model skill somewhat low....SInce I post a lot, I should probably put it out there....I am looking for somewhere west/NW of me to get slammed so I can do a quick chase. So my agenda may be different than others...I need to try and be more agnostic toward the solutions....but my usually imby-ism is not really there this time. Even with subforums there is no "we". I hate the word "we" or "us". I try to use "DC" when I post...for this storm need to be careful to talk about which region I am referring to....The latest guidance is a nice departure from the OP Euro which nailed Central NC.... no i hear ya. it's more likely me than you on this one. it would be good to get some snow nearby.. yes. and the para moving into a better position with the low is seemingly a plus. side note: will be interesting to see if this holds. the para has been pretty iffy so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Im more ecouraged than not that the PGFS still shows a potent system, was just pointing out that despite the nice track it is a burbs snow... Gun to my head I think this will be a 6-12 type system 25 mi NW of the cities from DC to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Bit OT but is the PGFS going to replace the old GFS on the NCEP page? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 This reverse psychology stuff is hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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