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December 19-21 Storm Thread


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2 days i think. It is supposed to be on Dec 17th

too bad it wasnt today....then we could of said the GFS shows a major storm instead of what the 18z said. Were always 2 days short or something short or whatever we are..too east..to west..too south...too north

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In general, it seems like the Euro Op and the ensembles don't often diverge very much compared to the GEFS and GFS Op. The differences on the 12z runs between the Euro Op and ensembles, particularly when other model systems now agree quite well with the Euro ensembles are a red flag IMO.

"DT dislikes this post"

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I truthfully don't even really care if the storm happens. I'd go after snow if there's a chance but snow isn't quite the same when it's not your backyard.. at least to me. Odds of it being worthwhile in the city are pretty slim. I'd like to fast forward to the hecs pattern now. 

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:o seem to be handed out easier these days than in the past 

 

nice snark ;)

 

I'm just looking for a storm at this point....for whatever reason, I am very non-IMBY for this one. Probably because of the low probability of much here other than a nice 1-2"....almost nobody thought this had a chance of being anything legitimate until the Euro 2 days ago....now the possibility that the far NW burbs can get a snowstorm is real, if still in doubt

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nice snark ;)

 

I'm just looking for a storm at this point....for whatever reason, I am very non-IMBY for this one. Probably because of the low probability of much here other than a nice 1-2"....almost nobody thought this had a chance of being anything legitimate until the Euro 2 days ago....now the possibility that the far NW burbs can get a snowstorm is real, if still in doubt

only because I consider you one of the top snow forecasters here. but i'm not that much fun anymore with snow forecasts. 

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 um  2 things  
 
1st     you might  wnat to be  less  dogmatic  here..  we finally   have a  1  run fo the  GS .. the 13km  r one -- that   actually  has  clouds and precip and Low...    so give it some time to catch up

not   any runs of the  op  EURO has  down  8-12" in the I-95  cities

  

Para clown map. Yeah, if you thought you were getting 8-12 in the city your going to be disappointed.

gfsp_asnow_eus_25.png

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only because I consider you one of the top snow forecasters here. but i'm not that much fun anymore with snow forecasts. 

 

 

it's hard when we all live in different areas and we all have different expectations.  In the end there is never any "we"..it is every man for himself..lol...my :o was over the top, but I am glad the Para and Euro ENS aren't caving...still of course at a long lead time with model skill somewhat low....SInce I post a lot, I should probably put it out there....I am looking for somewhere west/NW of me to get slammed so I can do a quick chase.  So my agenda may be different than others...I need to try and be more agnostic toward the solutions....but my usually imby-ism is not really there this time. Even with subforums there is no "we".  I hate the word "we" or "us".  I try to use "DC" when I post...for this storm need to be careful to talk about which region I am referring to....The latest guidance is a nice departure from the OP Euro which nailed Central NC.... 

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it's hard when we all live in different areas and we all have different expectations.  In the end there is never any "we"..it is every man for himself..lol...my :o was over the top, but I am glad the Para and Euro ENS aren't caving...still of course at a long lead time with model skill somewhat low....SInce I post a lot, I should probably put it out there....I am looking for somewhere west/NW of me to get slammed so I can do a quick chase.  So my agenda may be different than others...I need to try and be more agnostic toward the solutions....but my usually imby-ism is not really there this time. Even with subforums there is no "we".  I hate the word "we" or "us".  I try to use "DC" when I post...for this storm need to be careful to talk about which region I am referring to....The latest guidance is a nice departure from the OP Euro which nailed Central NC.... 

no i hear ya. it's more likely me than you on this one. it would be good to get some snow nearby.. yes. and the para moving into a better position with the low is seemingly a plus. 

 

side note: will be interesting to see if this holds. the para has been pretty iffy so far. 

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