paulythegun Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Euro ENS mean WAY west of the OP... Yep. Not only that, it seems to have moved a bit west (and warmer) compared to last night's 00z mean.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 Too far Matt. There are quite a few members showing a miller b w/ primary up into KY. perfect...I'd much rather see a far western solution at this point than a feeble amorphous monstrosity ambling OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Time to play the switch the model of choice game. It did move west of last night's mean but result is pretty much the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Too far Matt. There are quite a few members showing a miller b w/ primary up into KY. I would be fine with that if there is some cold air place before the precip arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 We have gotten spoiled... If we do not get 6+ inches from a storm it is no good. I remember the days when 2-4 inches were forecasted... we were happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 We have gotten spoiled... If we do not get 6+ inches from a storm it is no good. I remember the days when 2-4 inches were forecasted... we were happy. I'd take 2-4" in a heartbeat...it would be a no-brainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I counted maybe 10 members supporting the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 WRONG Yeah, I doubt this comes back now until a final tease 36 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 AS I said the OP euro run is BAD run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Mean precip through the area still remained .85. I agree with Ian. Shift west overall but we haven't really made much progress so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Time to play the switch the model of choice game. It did move west of last night's mean but result is pretty much the same. I'd rather choose an ensemble member of choice. I'll take e37, which puts the 20"+ bulls eye of weatherbell snow right over the beltway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The ENS should be a big red flag against the OP. I think this will change next run and not 36 hours out. Just me and I am a weenie. It seems the OP is locking 50/50 too long. Could be right but wouldn't count this to hold next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I counted maybe 10 members supporting the op. out of 50 something? can't recall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 Other than it doesn't matter that much since we are still 4.5 days out...but I don't know at this range anyone would want the euro south and east versus wrapped up and warm...knowing that it will probably jog east in the last 48 hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I'd take 2-4" in a heartbeat...it would be a no-brainer lol that post wasn't even worth responding too. there are a lot of delusional people on the forum today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Mean precip through the area still remained .85. I agree with Ian. Shift west overall but we haven't really made much progress so far today. how much progress do you need to make when you are in the bullseye 5 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 51 out of 50 something? can't recall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 individual members look pretty solid at 138/144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 out of 50 something? can't recall 51 and the control run. Control run is a big hit but that doesn't carry a bunch of weight. There are a lot of comma head solutions but a # of those track the OHV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 51 thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Other than it doesn't matter that much since we are still 4.5 days out...but I don't know at this range anyone would want the euro south and east versus wrapped up and warm...knowing that it will probably jog east in the last 48 hours.. I agree. I don't ever like seeing one south and east. Edit: But don't like seeing them in Chicago either......lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 a total Mis read of what happened with the 12z euro The problem is that the Euro came in line with most of the other models after being the outliner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 individual members look pretty solid at 138/144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 a total Mis read of what happened with the 12z euro Explain to me why? From what I read... OP was more of a south OTS solution. Not the wrapped up solution that came up the coast like the 0z. Just trying to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I lol'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Explain to me why? From what I read... OP was more of a south OTS solution. Not the wrapped up solution that came up the coast like the 0z. Just trying to learn. The way I see it, the Euro was still pretty wrapped up despite being a fish, while the gfs is just a weak wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I may sound like a weenie but at this range I'd still give more weight to the Euro ensemble mean than the OP. Ensemble mean track looks fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I lol'd. What am I looking at??? EDIT: Never mind, I see that it is the Control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I lol'd. whoever posts this on facebook should be banned from the internet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 thx for that I wonder if they keep stats on the performance of each member like they do with the operational....and if so, which ones are better one would think they would but I don't know if it would be published Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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