AlaskaETC Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 850s are fine the whole storm.. the sfc (which i didnt look at before earlier comment) is not great.. plus the precip issue. I see, the Tidbits website is the best resource I have for the ECMWF. I should probably subscribe to the model package here sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 meh, idk how many 5-day Euro storms we have had over the years only to have the rain/snow line move north because the models were too strong with the 50/50 or confluence this has a loooooong way to go so buckle up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Hard to argue with this post. meh... at this range, I wouldn't call anything a lock. Even if they all agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 meh... at this range, I wouldn't call anything a lock. Even if they all agree. Thanks for the words of wisdom Fozz, but I don't think either of us ever used the word lock. If you like thinking one model standing by itself is a good thing, then go right ahead. And........just so you will know..........all of them in agreement has a much better chance of verifying than the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 meh... at this range, I wouldn't call anything a lock. Even if they all agree. I think we'll see some other variances in the next couple of days. ECMWF will probably throw another bone within the next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Scuddz is pumped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Thanks for the words of wisdom Fozz, but I don't think either of us ever used the word lock. "well-locked" If you like thinking one model standing by itself is a good thing, then go right ahead. And........just so you will know..........all of them in agreement has a much better chance of verifying than the other way around. It's not a good thing, but it's also too early to draw any conclusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Scuddz is pumped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Anyone have the ensembles? Not out till 3pm or so I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I didn't realize CWG went 25% 1"+ in DC.. bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 "well-locked" I stand corrected. I still think I'll play the odds and not sit here hoping for the straight flush. Besides, most would be happy with just a straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Models, although much improved from our earleir years of internet weather, still are in their "show all scenarios" mode. I have found that Day 5, in this case tomorrow, ends that variability and in fact nowdays I tend to continue to keep Day 5 as the primary indicator of the acutal outcome for my forecasts. Perhpas earlier on is still too far away and day 1 and 2 models runs too close. I do not believe that this is a crushing or suppressive high. 1025 over southern tip of Hudson bay is no monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I didn't realize CWG went 25% 1"+ in DC.. bullish Nothing like making the Bullish solution our most likely forecast on a storm with only 1 model supporting it from 6 days out. #Whenisthenextanti-hypepostgoingup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Based on all guidance, the goal posts are mostly shored up. Modestly tucked track to sheared slider. The euro made one of it's bigger run over run jumps in the medium leads that I've seen in a while. Especially on the heels of 3 in a row. The only concerning thing is I noticed the changes by 72 hours for a less amped solution. But less amped early certainly doesn't mean a SE whiff. That was from the 50/50 hanging on. We do this every storm and it always gets old. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Ofc its weenie range, but the h5 chart at 87 hrs looks pretty nice on the 15z SREFs. Decent 50/50 and s/w is in SW TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Its one run, I would wait to see if it keeps this solution 2 runs in a row before taking too much from it. I have seen blips before even on the euro. Also curious to see what the ensembles show in an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 CoastalWx posted that the para's Day 6 verification scores were horrendous. So yes, this is probably an improvement. I don't necessarily think that the PGFS is some great implementation, but the statement that the Day 6 verification scores "were horrendous" is a stretch. For the past 30 days it is statistically tied with the operational GFS....well I guess you could call that "horrendous". What worries me (personally) is that it was pretty poor in a few high impact events this season, including significant boundary layer temperature biases for the marginal events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Based on all guidance, the goal posts are mostly shored up. Modestly tucked track to sheared slider. The euro made one of it's bigger run over run jumps in the medium leads that I've seen in a while. Especially on the heels of 3 in a row. The only concerning thing is I noticed the changes by 72 hours for a less amped solution. But less amped early certainly doesn't mean a SE whiff. That was from the 50/50 hanging on. We do this every storm and it always gets old. haha if those posts were any wider we'd be talking about northern plains storm near Iowa to no storm at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 if those posts were any wider we'd be talking about northern plains storm near Iowa to no storm at all. Not really. We're talking 12 noon to 2:30. I'll go with 1:15 for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Its one run, I would wait to see if it keeps this solution 2 runs in a row before taking too much from it. I have seen blips before even on the euro. Also curious to see what the ensembles show in an hour. The problem is that the Euro came in line with most of the other models after being the outliner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The problem is that the Euro came in line with most of the other models after being the outliner. we are still 120 hours out, if we were 72 hours I would worry more. All the models are jumping around a lot. UKMET still had an amped up solution. I never got too excited and I am not going to get too down about one run at this range. THere might be significant changes still from 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 I didn't realize CWG went 25% 1"+ in DC.. bullish I went 20% yesterday and kept it at 20% today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 euro ens mean will clearly be west of the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 euro ens mean will clearly be west of the OP we are still 120 hours out, if we were 72 hours I would worry more. All the models are jumping around a lot. UKMET still had an amped up solution. I never got too excited and I am not going to get too down about one run at this range. THere might be significant changes still from 5 days out. Two pieces of good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 12z EPS mean through 108 hours a bit stronger on the 50/50 but not much difference from the 00z run....maybe a touch west of it, but not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 Euro ENS mean WAY west of the OP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 At this point, how heavily do we weigh the op verses ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Euro ENS mean WAY west of the OP... Too far Matt. There are quite a few members showing a miller b w/ primary up into KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Congrats Central VA could end up a congrats to no one by the time we get there. maybe this storm helps pave the way for better chances beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 At this point, how heavily do we weigh the op verses ensembles? ENS carry a lot of weight...mean looks like last night's euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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