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December 19-21 Storm Thread


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850s are fine the whole storm.. the sfc (which i didnt look at before earlier comment) is not great.. plus the precip issue. 

 

 

I see, the Tidbits website is the best resource I have for the ECMWF. I should probably subscribe to the model package here sometime.

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meh... at this range, I wouldn't call anything a lock. Even if they all agree.

Thanks for the words of wisdom Fozz, but I don't think either of us ever used the word lock.  If you like thinking one model standing by itself is a good thing, then go right ahead.  And........just so you will know..........all of them in agreement has a much better chance of verifying than the other way around.

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Thanks for the words of wisdom Fozz, but I don't think either of us ever used the word lock.  

 

"well-locked"

 

If you like thinking one model standing by itself is a good thing, then go right ahead.  And........just so you will know..........all of them in agreement has a much better chance of verifying than the other way around.

 

It's not a good thing, but it's also too early to draw any conclusions.

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Models, although much improved from our earleir years of internet weather, still are in their "show all scenarios" mode. I have found that Day 5, in this case tomorrow, ends that variability and in fact nowdays I tend to continue to keep Day 5 as the primary indicator of the acutal outcome for my forecasts. Perhpas earlier on is still too far away and day 1 and 2 models runs too close.

I do not believe that this is a crushing or suppressive high. 1025 over southern tip of Hudson bay is no monster.

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Based on all guidance, the goal posts are mostly shored up. Modestly tucked track to sheared slider. The euro made one of it's bigger run over run jumps in the medium leads that I've seen in a while. Especially on the heels of 3 in a row.

The only concerning thing is I noticed the changes by 72 hours for a less amped solution. But less amped early certainly doesn't mean a SE whiff. That was from the 50/50 hanging on. We do this every storm and it always gets old. haha

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CoastalWx posted that the para's Day 6 verification scores were horrendous.  So yes, this is probably an improvement.    

I don't necessarily think that the PGFS is some great implementation, but the statement that the Day 6 verification scores "were horrendous" is a stretch.  For the past 30 days it is statistically tied with the operational GFS....well I guess you could call that 

"horrendous".

 

What worries me (personally) is that it was pretty poor in a few high impact events this season, including significant boundary layer temperature biases for the marginal events.

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Based on all guidance, the goal posts are mostly shored up. Modestly tucked track to sheared slider. The euro made one of it's bigger run over run jumps in the medium leads that I've seen in a while. Especially on the heels of 3 in a row.

The only concerning thing is I noticed the changes by 72 hours for a less amped solution. But less amped early certainly doesn't mean a SE whiff. That was from the 50/50 hanging on. We do this every storm and it always gets old. haha

:) if those posts were any wider we'd be talking about northern plains storm near Iowa to no storm at all.

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Its one run, I would wait to see if it keeps this solution 2 runs in a row before taking too much from it.  I have seen blips before even on the euro.  Also curious to see what the ensembles show in an hour. 

 

The problem is that the Euro came in line with most of the other models after being the outliner.

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The problem is that the Euro came in line with most of the other models after being the outliner.

we are still 120 hours out, if we were 72 hours I would worry more.  All the models are jumping around a lot.  UKMET still had an amped up solution.  I never got too excited and I am not going to get too down about one run at this range.  THere might be significant changes still from 5 days out. 

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euro ens mean will clearly be west of the OP

 

 

we are still 120 hours out, if we were 72 hours I would worry more.  All the models are jumping around a lot.  UKMET still had an amped up solution.  I never got too excited and I am not going to get too down about one run at this range.  THere might be significant changes still from 5 days out. 

Two pieces of good news.

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