mitchnick Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 It would be our luck that the thing we wished for sticks around too long/tough and ruins it. yep....careful what we wish for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 NO ian se va still rain.. CENTRAL and western and sw VA yes ... if this run is correct which i do NOT think it is yeah you and mitch are right looking closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 ~.25 DC south.. sorry mapgirl it will come back. keep the faith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 THE 12Z EURO IS south BECAUSE at 126 hrs the 12z euro STILL has the 50/ 50 Low in place over se canada... that in turn forces southern Low to stay More south great for dt LAND.. but I think this is wrong... I dont think the 50/50 low will stay there THAT long so I dont like this run however great it is for DT LAND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 We've got this right where we want it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 terrible run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 We have seen this script before.. Looks good in the LR... gets lost in the MR... only to come in the SR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 NO ian se va still rain.. CENTRAL and western and sw VA yes ... if this run is correct which i do NOT think it is I'd take that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 So did I just lose the 20" the rock-solid EC gave me at 00Z ? Lol at getting excited for a MECS 6 days out FYP (not saying you bought into it, but anyone who hoped for a major storm and feels crushed now has nothing to blame but themselves) But I'd wait till Wednesday or Thursday before writing it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 My chase target just went from Winchester to Winston-Salem... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Pretty much a wholesale shift @ h5. It showed at hr 72 and got worse from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 HaHa. I go from a foot plus to zippy. Gotta love this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I don't know, I kinda like where we're at now. As others have said, I'd rather have it too far SE than too far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 THE 12Z EURO IS south BECAUSE at 126 hrs the 12z euro STILL has the 50/ 50 Low in place over se canada... that in turn forces southern Low to stay More south great for dt LAND.. but I think this is wrong...[/size] I dont think the 50/50 low will stay there THAT long so I dont like this run however great it is for DT LAND [/size] Agreed, it is good however that it hasnt weakened that 50/50 because we still need, but im happy Id rather have it look like this than show a rainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I don't know, I kinda like where we're at now. As others have said, I'd rather have it too far SE than too far NW. problem is euro does this a fair amount in the range we went thru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 problem is euro does this a fair amount in the range we went thru. Yeah, I doubt this comes back now until a final tease 36 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 That's my line 5 days is a lifetime...I'm glad time goes by so fast now at my age...seems difficult to believe this thing won't wobble significantly between now and then...10 more euro runs?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Lol, it actually shows 0.0" of precip. for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Didn't the Euro just come into alignment with the other guidance? Seems like the models are now well-locked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 still gets going pretty good just offshore.. wouldn't take a big shift back west to be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 FYP (not saying you bought into it, but anyone who hoped for a major storm and feels crushed now has nothing to blame but themselves) But I'd wait till Wednesday or Thursday before writing it off. Banter post, but I have learned through the years to wait until 120 hrs out to pay attention, and until 72 hours to start getting invested. Every season I have a couple of WSW's go up in smoke inside of 36 hrs., so expecting any model to have the solution at day 5-6 is probably unreasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The 850 temperatures on the ECMWF don't look too bad at 144hrs with the low off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Lol, it actually shows 0.0" of precip. for my area. Wouldnt worry about specifics brother the main thing is it kept the major players on the field all it would take is a slightly stronger s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The 850 temperatures on the ECMWF don't look too bad at 144hrs with the low off the coast. 850s are fine the whole storm.. the sfc (which i didnt look at before earlier comment) is not great.. plus the precip issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Wouldnt worry about specifics brother the main thing is it kept the major players on the field all it would take is a slightly stronger s/w Oh I know, I just thought it was funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Gone, but I still think we can bring it back with 2-3 days of fried unicorn jokes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 DT and whoever else has this opinion - why do you think 50/50 low won't linger as the Euro just showed? Because no block to cause it to stay around that long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Yeah just one or two that remotely resemble the Euro. Never fun when one model stands alone, but it IS the euro and from what I can tell from you guys, it's ens is in line with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 850s are fine the whole storm.. the sfc (which i didnt look at before earlier comment) is not great.. plus the precip issue. that would change for the better if we could get some better precip rates into the area I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Didn't the Euro just come into alignment with the other guidance? Seems like the models are now well-locked. Hard to argue with this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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