Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 6

[Srain]

It looks like the strongest Arctic High we've seen in nearly 30 years will settle across Nebraska on Wednesday that will require Hard Freeze Warnings and Wind Chill Advisories all the way S to Coastal Texas and Louisiana where temperatures may reach the low 20's for 6 to 12 hours Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Temperatures may struggle to reach the Mid 30's for highs on Thursday.

The GFS continues to advertise the Baja upper low may break out some QPF across portions of Central/N/NE/SE Texas into Louisiana on Friday as a Coastal wave develops near Brownsville/Corpus Christi with a chance of sleet or snow across the Dallas area into Shreveport and possibly some sleet/freezing rain near Austin and Houston. The Euro is slower by about 12 hours starting a cold rain across most of th Region on Saturday. If the more progressive pattern is correct as it has been all Fall and early Winter, we may have some interesting weather late week.

 

[bubba hotep]

6z GFS would be nice for DFW, looks like it could start as snow and then transition. It will be interesting to see if we can get the Euro to trend towards the GFS this week, which wouldn't be unusual given this setup

[DFWWeather]

6z GFS would be nice for DFW, looks like it could start as snow and then transition. It will be interesting to see if we can get the Euro to trend towards the GFS this week, which wouldn't be unusual given this setup

 

I have a hard time buying the GFS in this setup. First off, given the impressive pressures with this next Arctic air surge coupled with strong cold air advection, dewpoint depressions are going to be significant. This will take a long time to saturate the lower levels. I still think temps could be even colder Thursday Morning than the now forecasted 16°F at DFW Airport by NWS if clouds stay away. Could be as much as 3 to 5 degrees colder. Guidance continues to come in colder with each run. This is one of the strongest High pressure cells in many years and I don't thing guidance has a grip on it just yet. The other reason was discussed previously by NWS about the upper air pattern is not really conducive for a significant ice or snow event in North Texas. Plus, the system looks really meager at best. The 0z ECMWF operational, and especially its control, drive another strong Arctic high into the Plains down into Texas over the weekend. Not as bad as the one this week, but certainly cold nonetheless. The coldest air looks to be centered a bit further west though. This will act to only further enforce drier lower levels.

[Srain]

I have a hard time buying the GFS in this setup. First off, given the impressive pressures with this next Arctic air surge coupled with strong cold air advection, dewpoint depressions are going to be significant. This will take a long time to saturate the lower levels. I still think temps could be even colder Thursday Morning than the now forecasted 16°F at DFW Airport by NWS if clouds stay away. Could be as much as 3 to 5 degrees colder. Guidance continues to come in colder with each run. This is one of the strongest High pressure cells in many years and I don't thing guidance has a grip on it just yet. The other reason was discussed previously by NWS about the upper air pattern is not really conducive for a significant ice or snow event in North Texas. Plus, the system looks really meager at best. The 0z ECMWF operational, and especially its control, drive another strong Arctic high into the Plains down into Texas over the weekend. Not as bad as the one this week, but certainly cold nonetheless. The coldest air looks to be centered a bit further west though. This will act to only further enforce drier lower levels.

This may be one of those situations where a developing Coastal wave near the Lower Texas Coast robs you folks in the Metroplex. The 12Z GFS is still aggressive with developing sleet and freezing rain from Central Texas along and N of the I-10 Corridor even into Beaumont/Lake Charles. The second front on Friday may generate enough lift for you folks further N. The secondary front was a bit stronger via the GFS today. We will see.

[bubba hotep]

This may be one of those situations where a developing Coastal wave near the Lower Texas Coast robs you folks in the Metroplex. The 12Z GFS is still aggressive with developing sleet and freezing rain from Central Texas along and N of the I-10 Corridor even into Beaumont/Lake Charles. The second front on Friday may generate enough lift for you folks further N. The secondary front was a bit stronger via the GFS today. We will see.

I like the trends that are developmening and could see a blend of the 12z GFS & PGFS. Who knows what tomorrow will bring in model land... The coastal always makes me nervous but it looks like a fair amount of moisture coming from the Pacific. Of course, the coastal could cutoff our low level source. It seems like the models have been too slow with moisture return with the last couple of systems, so that is another thing to watch.

[Quixotic1]

Suppression is funny until it happens to you.  

[bubba hotep]

Suppression is funny until it happens to you.

I always wanted systems suppressed in the long range when I lived in DC. It seemed easier for systems to come north, the north trend was money

[Srain]

Interestingly the 12Z Euro has joined the GFS solutions (both the old and the new parallel GFS) in suggesting we may have some p-type issues to contend with later this week.

 

 

[DFWWeather]

Interestingly the 12Z Euro has joined the GFS solutions (both the old and the new parallel GFS) in suggesting we may have some p-type issues to contend with later this week.

 

ECMWF brings in another strong Arctic front (3rd one this week) ahead of storm system. Could be interesting if the lower levels can recover enough. After system leaves it shows yet even another Arctic front will plow through the state next week. Might have to bite the bullet and get on board with this.

 

I doubt we see any recovery of surface temps at all after Wednesday, if this solution verifies. Could be several days of subfreezing temperatures at DFW.

[Quixotic1]

Be nice to have the cold air, however we may need something pretty dynamic to wring out moisture with drier lower levels to overcome.  Still, stranger things have happened.  

[Quixotic1]

I always wanted systems suppressed in the long range when I lived in DC. It seemed easier for systems to come north, the north trend was money

 

Truthfully, I just want it in the vicinity until we start getting into the high res range.  The last few years, FWD has been really good about sorting out specifics of tracks.  

[bubba hotep]

At first glance on my phone, not seeing any big changes at H5 on the 18z GFS. Maybe a tad slower/more energetic but probably nothing more than just model noise.

[DFWWeather]

Looks like all the NWS offices are jumping on the bandwagon of frozen precip this Friday/weekend across much of Texas north of Austin back into the Hill Country over to Lufkin. Amarillo interestingly enough discusses the apparent formation of a true McFarland signature to the upper 500 mb pattern on the 12z models this afternoon. If this comes together as depicted, I doubt we will see much warming at the surface as indicated by the NWS with all the precip phase changes. DFW may stay below freezing the whole time after Wednesday, especially if frozen precip gets in the picture and accumulates. Of course, the caveat is track and strength of storm system, sufficient moisture to moisten the lower levels (big ?), and coastal low developing shutting down moisture supply to North Texas.

[Quixotic1]

At first glance on my phone, not seeing any big changes at H5 on the 18z GFS. Maybe a tad slower/more energetic but probably nothing more than just model noise.

 

My thoughts are that perhaps the recent rains will help alleviate the warm nose that plagued us the last two winters.  I've noticed FWD is going with mostly SN rather than PL or FZRA.

[DoctorMu]

Surprised TWC is ahead of the curve vs. NOAA.  I don't see temps out of the 30s on Friday or Saturday in CLL.  

 

GFS has a little snow dump by the Ark-LA-TEX Saturday.

 

 

[vwgrrc]

Looks like all the NWS offices are jumping on the bandwagon of frozen precip this Friday/weekend across much of Texas north of Austin back into the Hill Country over to Lufkin. Amarillo interestingly enough discusses the apparent formation of a true McFarland signature to the upper 500 mb pattern on the 12z models this afternoon. If this comes together as depicted, I doubt we will see much warming at the surface as indicated by the NWS with all the precip phase changes. DFW may stay below freezing the whole time after Wednesday, especially if frozen precip gets in the picture and accumulates. Of course, the caveat is track and strength of storm system, sufficient moisture to moisten the lower levels (big ?), and coastal low developing shutting down moisture supply to North Texas.

Well... McFarland signature? I remember the last time we see it was around Dec 4, 2013 and we all knew what happened to DFW then.

 

But I doubt this weekend can be anywhere near that event   

[DFWWeather]

Well... McFarland signature? I remember the last time we see it was around Dec 4, 2013 and we all knew what happened to DFW then.

 

But I doubt this weekend can be anywhere near that event   

 

The forecaster out of Amarillo NWS commented on it. I don't think the event last year was a true McFarland sig. These usually deliver freezing temps down to the LRGV of Texas (from hence came the name from the guy that did his thesis on it specifically to better forecast harsh freezes in this area). This will be very close this week depending on cloud cover that far south. Most notable McFarlands are December 1983, December 1989, February 1989, January/February 1996, January 1962, January 1930, etc.

 

This week the cold will certainly be the top story from Wednesday on with two strong Arctic airmasses back-to-back. The cold will get magnified if sufficient accumulating frozen precip is added to the picture. We'll see...

[Srain]

Evening briefing from Jeff:

 

Significant cold air outbreak heading for the southern plains and TX.

 

Hard freeze likely Thursday morning over much of the area.

 

Very cold rain with some sleet possible Friday/Saturday.

 

Strong arctic high pressure cell over NE Canada will unleash into the US tomorrow and roar off the TX coast early Wednesday. Surface pressure pushes through 1055mb and approach 1060mb over the central plains Wednesday with surface pressure anomalies pushing over 3SD above normal…barometric pressure records may be established over portions of the central and southern plains with this massive arctic high pressure cell. Temperatures in NW Canada are currently in the -40F to -47F range and this air mass will be headed south down the plains very quickly over the next 24-36 hours. Leading edge of the bitter cold air mass will move off the TX coast early Wednesday with already cold temperatures falling during the day. Highs in the 40’s will be reached early with temperatures falling into the 30’s during the day under strong N winds. Wind chill values will fall into the 20’s during the day…making today feel warm. It is going to be cold so prepare accordingly!

 

Wednesday night/Thursday Morning:

 

Prolonged hard freeze likely over at least the northern part of the area (N of HWY 105).

 

Wind Chill Advisories possible over portions of the area.

 

Strong cold air advection will continue Wednesday night with advection of freezing line deep into the area just after sunset and continued temperature fall all night even with winds staying up. Wind chills will fall into the 10’s and may require wind chill advisory for portions of the area for Thursday morning. Mid and upper level cloud deck streaming overhead from weak upper system near Baja looks to push slightly southward Thursday morning allowing areas north of I-10 to clear some. Given the gravity of the arctic high pressure dome to our north forcing very cold air into the region…think several hours of sub-freezing conditions are likely even with gusty winds and clouds…would go even colder if winds were calm and skies clear and records would likely fall in that event. Extremely dry air mass with dewpoints in the 1’s and 10’s certainly support very cold temperatures, but will moderate over those low values due to continued strong winds and clouds.

 

Lows Thursday Morning:

 

N of Hwy 105: 18-22

N of I-10: 25-29

Harris County inside Beltway 8: 27-30

N of HWY 35: 29-32

Beaches: 33-35

 

Hard freeze criteria is certainly possible north of Hwy 105 with 2 hours or longer below 25. Expect freezing conditions of 8-14 hours across the region. Could even approach hard freeze warning criteria along and north of FM 2920, but still some uncertainty on clouds this far south.

 

This freeze will likely be particularly damaging as it will be advective in nature (strong winds pushing colder air into the region). 90% of our freezes in this area are radiative or happen on clear calm nights when the temperature cools toward the dewpoints. Radiative freezes allow excellent opportunity for covering of vegetation to produce a “greenhouse effect” as the warmth from the ground is trapped under the protective covering. Advective freezes remove the warmth from the ground with the gusty winds and reduce the effectiveness of a protective covering usually resulting in extensive damage to cold sensitive vegetation and citrus.

 

Areas north of HWY 105 suggest take all precautions to protect any exposed outdoor pipes as forecasted temperatures of this magnitude for this period of time tend to cause freezing of pipes in this region.

 

Pets and livestock should be sheltered and water sources checked for ice formation and blockage.

 

Will continue to refine temperatures for Thursday morning, but all cold weather precautions should be taken for this freeze.

 

Many areas will not warm above freezing on Thursday until mid to late morning with high temperatures only in the upper 30’s to near 40.

 

Friday-Saturday:

Baja system ejects toward TX with coastal low forming over the lower TX coast. 1060mb arctic high slides E toward IN and weakens to 1041mb, but still ridges SSW into TX. Cold air looks hard to dislodge and onset of overrunning moisture looks to begin by midday Friday. Friday morning low temperatures look to once again reach freezing across a good part of the area with only a very slow warm up on Friday. Forecast profiles suggest onset of rainfall may be mixed with or all sleet north of a line from Brenham to Conroe to Livingston during the day Friday. Would like to see more warm air advection above the surface to be confident in all rain across those northern counties. Deep surface dry layer will also have to be overcome for precipitation to reach the surface which will likely delay the onset to the warmer parts of midday to afternoon Friday.  

 

Forecast becomes even more uncertain Friday night-Saturday as GFS backs another surge of arctic air into the region with rainfall increasing as overrunning pattern establishes and surface layer moistens. Surface temperatures will fall near or below freezing Friday night north of a line from College Station to Huntsville to Livingston with sleet/rain possible. Am a bit worried that the high temperature forecast for Saturday is only 36-38 for IAH which does not give much room for the models to be “too warm” before we would see possible freezing rain further south. Additionally dewpoints for IAH on the GFS are 28 to 32 on Saturday with a 71% chance of rain which does not really make much sense…would expect a closer dewpoint/temperature for such a forecast rain chance…suggesting either the dewpoints are too low or the surface temperature is too warm.

 

For now will keep everything liquid south of a College Station to Livingston line both Friday night and Saturday, but this period bears close watch as only a slightly colder surface temperature could result in P-type problems deeper across the area. Forecast soundings show a fairly significant warm advection pattern developing above the surface cold dome Saturday which should reduce any sleet threat and at least attempt to erode the surface cold dome or modify it (warm rain drops falling through the cold air)…this may be what saves the area from a prolonged ice storm in the end.    

 

[DoctorMu]

Dry and cold lower layer could lead to evaporative cooling, dropping temps once overrun precip starts and increasing likelihood of sleet Friday into Saturday, initially north of 105 and possibly sinking into Harris Co.

 

Roadway Skating rinks possible by early Sat am?

[vwgrrc]

The forecaster out of Amarillo NWS commented on it. I don't think the event last year was a true McFarland sig. These usually deliver freezing temps down to the LRGV of Texas (from hence came the name from the guy that did his thesis on it specifically to better forecast harsh freezes in this area). This will be very close this week depending on cloud cover that far south. Most notable McFarlands are December 1983, December 1989, February 1989, January/February 1996, January 1962, January 1930, etc.

 

This week the cold will certainly be the top story from Wednesday on with two strong Arctic airmasses back-to-back. The cold will get magnified if sufficient accumulating frozen precip is added to the picture. We'll see...

Do you mean that the frozen precip on Friday could lower the temps for Sat/Sunday?

 

NWS FWD this afternoon were talking about sleet/freezing rain will transit to plain rain on Saturday... And guidance also agree a mild warm-up after Friday.   

[DFWWeather]

Do you mean that the frozen precip on Friday could lower the temps for Sat/Sunday?

 

NWS FWD this afternoon were talking about sleet/freezing rain will transit to plain rain on Saturday... And guidance also agree a mild warm-up after Friday.   

 

Yes, frozen precipitation will have tendency to do that once its in the picture. Sleet, especially will lower temps due to the precipitation process and evaporative cooling. Right now temps are not all that warm anyway on guidance and well within the margin of error to be below freezing. Guidance is notoriously bad in Arctic air intrusions as it can't handle the low level cold air well. The latest data suggest that the bulk of precipitation may be too far south to do us much good up here. We will also be dealing with a coastal low that will shut down low level moisture up in North Texas, which will be critical as we have to overcome the Arctic air drying out the low levels pretty significantly to get precip. In situations like this, there is usually large dewpoint depressions and plenty of room for evaporative cooling. I wouldn't count on much warming, at least initially, as unlike last week, cold air will be advecting in and not retreating due to warm air advection. Models tend to erode Arctic air too quickly, so something to keep in mind as well.

[DFWWeather]

Interesting guidance continues to trend colder. 12z MOS Guidance for Thursday morning at DFW:

 

NAM: 15°F (down from 18°F at 0z)

 

GFS: 13°F

[Srain]

Both the 12Z Canadian and the Euro trended faster with an upper air disturbance tracking across Mexico into S Central Texas Thursday night into Friday morning. This is before the upper low moves inland over the Baja and begins to shear out. The Euro is very close to suggesting some p-type issues across Central and SE Texas into SW Louisiana before the Coastal trough/wave gets going Friday night into Saturday.

 

 

 

[bubba hotep]

I wouldn't mind a Euro / GFS/PGFS blend at this point. Question is, will models trend towards common ground or towards one of the extremes or something totally different....

[Srain]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
321 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-062330-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
321 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2015

...WINTER PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK...

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING VERY COLD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY LATE
THURSDAY...BUT THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE FRONT
IS PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

SOME OF THIS COULD FALL IN THE FORM OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
OCCUR. THE BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON FRIDAY...WHEN LIFT
WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION
WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE RED RIVER...A
MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...A
MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND
PREDOMINATELY COLD RAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. AT
THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR WIDESPREAD TRAVEL PROBLEMS....WITH MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF
SNOW AND/OR SLEET ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR A HEAVIER BAND OF SLEET/SNOW TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE
ALONG OR JUST NORTH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS AND LOCALIZED TRAVEL IMPACTS. IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE /OR EVEN IF/ THIS WILL
OCCUR...BUT MORE WILL BE REVEALED AS NEWER DATA ARRIVES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BEGIN SHEDDING SOME
LIGHT ON THE SPECIFICS OF THE EVENT.

LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION AND MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT WARMER AIR MOVING IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD SWITCH PRECIPITATION TYPE BACK OVER TO COLD
RAIN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
 

[vwgrrc]

Interesting guidance continues to trend colder. 12z MOS Guidance for Thursday morning at DFW:

 

NAM: 15°F (down from 18°F at 0z)

 

GFS: 13°F

We want it to be colder for Sunday 

[DFWWeather]

Feel the FWD NWS low of 19°F at DFW may be too warm for Thursday morning. All the guidance is colder than that with pretty impressive pressures in North Texas. It'll be interesting to see how cold the mercury actually reaches given clear skies, light winds, very high pressure, and dewpoints progged to be near 0 or lower.

[ams30721us]

Snippet from Dallas AFD about Friday:

 

 

 

TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS YET
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT SHOULD
MOVE INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
THROUGH THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...ASCENT
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH /STILL MEANDERING
OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST/ MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO.
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A BETTER CHANCES
FRIDAY. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE
ALREADY CHILLY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT A SMALL WARM NOSE MAY PERSIST ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST A SLEET/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES...WITH A LIGHT
RAIN AND SLEET MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE REGION.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN TOO
LIGHT TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD TRAVEL ISSUES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MESOSCALE SNOW BAND TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION...LIKELY
DUE TO FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECIFY WHERE OR EVEN IF THIS WILL
OCCUR...BUT THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
CREATE ISOLATED HIGHER SNOW AND/OR SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AND
LOCALIZED TRAVEL CONCERNS. MORE WILL BE REVEALED AS NEWER DATA
ARRIVES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BEGIN
SHEDDING SOME LIGHT ON THE SPECIFICS OF THE EVENT.

[Srain]

You can certainly see the trends today have perked up the ears of the various WFO's. EWX is mentioning the fact that the guidance has trended colder even into the I-35 Corridor and on S and E. And lol at the 18Z GFS...

 

 

 

[vwgrrc]

You can certainly see the trends today have perked up the ears of the various WFO's. EWX is mentioning the fact that the guidance has trended colder even into the I-35 Corridor and on S and E. And lol at the 18Z GFS...

 

01062015 18Z GFS 90 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png

 

01062015 18Z GFS 96 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png

 

01062015 18Z GFS 102 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

North TX missed out for this run