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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 6

Portastorm

By Portastorm,
in Central/Western States

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

Got about an inch of snow on top of the sleet.  Adding everything up from November, when we had a trace of sleet and 1/4" of snow, to now and MBY is in the one foot of frozen stuff range.

That's a top five winter at DFW.

  

Also, we are heading into a high amplitude MJO wave. It can be clearly seen using the 200mb velocity potential graphics, approaching from the Central Pacific. It looks like it will reach max amplitude while getting to phase 7. This, coupled with a more El Niño atmosphere, will probably promote strong Baja lows. Like I said in my previous post, we are already seeing this in the guidance, with a full blown STJ bringing a lot of moisture over the deep south of our region.

 

Even if there's no wintry precipitation, it looks like weather will keep us on our toes for most of March.

Any reason to think the jump in amplitude might mean a second year Niño could be on the way?

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wxmx

wxmx

Posted
Posted

18z GFS:

 

- "Captain, we have scoured the cold air from Canada and Alaska. Should we call it a day?"

- "No Skipper, squeeze Alaska until it's fried! And then go for the North Pole and Siberia. We have to get that thing south!"

 

Arctic express at the end of the run :D. These ludicrous runs, some of the models are outputting, just show how ripe the pattern is for continued cold.

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
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The snow gradient that I've experienced since moving here is pretty crazy. Obviously being farther north helps but we've gotten so much more than DFW and it is probably only 35 to 40 miles SW of me.

  

That's one of the reasons why I am glad to be in North Tarrant....and not Dallas or something (in addition to being more a FW person anyway...) Gets colder here quicker.

Yeah. I've been here since 72 and grew up here. Having lived all over the area, the worst place for snow accumulation IMO is DFW. I lived next to the airport for five years and it was miserable. People were getting these great totals (for here that is) and I would have slush or a dusting. Even living in Cedar Hill was much better than the mid-cities. Living in Collin and Denton County has been a revelation. If we have to move again, Gainesville is going to get some serious consideration.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

18z GFS:

 

- "Captain, we have scoured the cold air from Canada and Alaska. Should we call it a day?"

- "No Skipper, squeeze Alaska until it's fried! And then go for the North Pole and Siberia. We have to get that thing south!"

 

Arctic express at the end of the run :D. These ludicrous runs, some of the models are outputting, just show how ripe the pattern is for continued cold.

 

The warm up, if it even comes, looks short lived and the Euro weeklies keep the Rockies and Southern Plains below normal all the way to the end of the run. 

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Srain

Srain

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We had a light frost with a low temperature of 28F here in NW Harris County. Freezing temperatures did not last the 10 hours as expected.  Changes begin to develop by Sunday as that pesky Baja Low and  upper trough begins to bring disturbances across the Southern half of Texas and a Coastal trough develops increasing our rain chances by late afternoon into at least the middle of next week. This morning there is some doubt that the unsettled pattern will exit E by Wednesday as another Baja Low digs south setting the stage for possibly an extended wet week ahead. The 7 Day QPF suggests some rather impressive rainfall amounts are possible. We will see. It is sort of what we would expect with an El Nino like pattern across our Region as tropical moisture from the Eastern Pacific streams ENE across Mexico and the NW Gulf Coast.

 

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wxmx

wxmx

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The atmosphere is all but dull. Extreme is the keyword. AO and MJO through the roof, and EPO in the tank. This, plus the weak warm ENSO will energize the STJ to the extreme. Steve posted a map, and I think we'll see more maps like that one for different time periods during March.

 

post-29-0-08852800-1425681614_thumb.gif

post-29-0-62526900-1425681763_thumb.gif

post-29-0-30391400-1425681774_thumb.gif

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1900hurricane

1900hurricane

Posted
Posted

The MJO might not verify to that insane magnitude, but a powerful wave is certainly coming. Tropical forcing is currently out of this world thanks in part to 93P, which is actually in the southern hemisphere but convection associated with the complex extends across both hemispheres. All this equatorial divergence aloft is really going to foster one killer MJO wave.

 

troppac_latest.gif

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