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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 6

Portastorm

By Portastorm,
in Central/Western States

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Brent

Brent

Posted
Posted

4" on the north side of the DFW metroplex. Most of it falling in 2 hours with 25-35 mph winds. Even in my wishcaster thoughts today I didn't really think we'd do that...

 

6 1/2" of snow in the last 5 days. Absolutely unbelievable turnaround to this winter. I couldnt have even made this up!

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
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10"+ of snow from these last two events IMBY  :pimp:  :snowing:  :snowman:  :guitar:

 

ETA: Finding 5 - 6" measurements in the more reliable areas of the yard (not grass or drifts :lol:) and the 3 - 4" from last system, so that 10"+ should be 8 - 10"  #NoSnowboardProblems

What did you get for last Wednesday's event?

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Roy

Roy

Posted
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Measured finally (after probably some melting). 4 inches. It's not 6 like Grapevine, but I can't complain about 4 in Texas! With four inches, that's where I consider it a good snow since it starts to look deep enough to really look pretty and it covers up virtually all grass no matter if mowed or not. Great stuff! Melting good though on the apartment streets and no doubt starting to melt on the grass.

 

Edit: Chris Robbins really nailed this. He said yesterday morning 2-4 inches from Denton to FW on east.

 

Boom. 

 

NWS and others said it would be further south, along with TV mets, and most weren't saying 2-4 either and expected mostly sleet.

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wxmx

wxmx

Posted
Posted

Looks like the -EPO pattern won't quit, it would just reload. Guidance suggest heights crashing far south into Mexico, while most of the CONUS will change over to above average mid/upper level heights. For our region, this probably means that MX and the southern half of our region will have above average precipitation, and below average temps, while the rest is more seasonal.

 

The polar jet looks pretty powerful, not allowing the full arctic flow to go directly south, so just glancing blows from it. The caveat is that we have the two ingredients, cold and moisture in abundance, though they are not mixing very well. So if there's a mixing spoon (west coast ridge and s/w riding the backside of a longwave trough), things would get messy pretty quickly.

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wxmx

wxmx

Posted
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Also, we are heading into a high amplitude MJO wave. It can be clearly seen using the 200mb velocity potential graphics, approaching from the Central Pacific. It looks like it will reach max amplitude while getting to phase 7. This, coupled with a more El Niño atmosphere, will probably promote strong Baja lows. Like I said in my previous post, we are already seeing this in the guidance, with a full blown STJ bringing a lot of moisture over the deep south of our region.

 

Even if there's no wintry precipitation, it looks like weather will keep us on our toes for most of March.

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Roy

Roy

Posted
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Hopefully some good thunderstorms to start severe weather season. I like the snow and ice, but don't want to extend the school year any longer, so unless I'm going to get 10 inches of snow, let's ready for severe weather now that I'm out of the desert.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

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Looks like the -EPO pattern won't quit, it would just reload. Guidance suggest heights crashing far south into Mexico, while most of the CONUS will change over to above average mid/upper level heights. For our region, this probably means that MX and the southern half of our region will have above average precipitation, and below average temps, while the rest is more seasonal.

 

The polar jet looks pretty powerful, not allowing the full arctic flow to go directly south, so just glancing blows from it. The caveat is that we have the two ingredients, cold and moisture in abundance, though they are not mixing very well. So if there's a mixing spoon (west coast ridge and s/w riding the backside of a longwave trough), things would get messy pretty quickly.

 

This winter has pretty much been driven by the EPO, the negative phase certainly helped us but those two longer positive stretches killed us.  IIRC, December saw a 10+ day stretch and then we saw a similar stretch in later January.  I wonder if there is still anyone out there looking for a SSW event and the coming -AO/NAO  :lol:

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wxmx

wxmx

Posted
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This winter has pretty much been driven by the EPO, the negative phase certainly helped us but those two longer positive stretches killed us.  IIRC, December saw a 10+ day stretch and then we saw a similar stretch in later January.  I wonder if there is still anyone out there looking for a SSW event and the coming -AO/NAO  :lol:

Nail in the coffin for the -AO forecast is just that we are heading into record setting daily values territory for a +AO in the next few days :P.

 

post-29-0-13097800-1425587917_thumb.gif

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