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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 6

Portastorm

By Portastorm,
in Central/Western States

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

Folks, we lost a longtime member from New England today. There is a thread in the SNE sub forum for those of you that remember Messenger. My thoughts and prayers are with his young children and family. Drop a note in the SNE sub forum if you care to.

Done. Knew him mostly from PR. Seems very sudden.....

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
911 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
RADAR PRESENTATION DEPICTS THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
IS NOW ARRIVING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES. THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
PRODUCE A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW. WITHIN THE LAST HOUR ACROSS THE
AREA SOUTH AND WEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX...RADAR ECHOES ARE
INCREASING AND DISPLAYING CONVECTIVE CHARACTERISTICS. THE 0Z FWD
SOUNDING SHOWED A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF MUCAPE...AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE RUC/NAM CONFIRM 100-200 J/KG OF MUCAPE ARE
PRESENT ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. WITH THE INCREASING
FORCING FOR ASCENT THIS CONVECTIVE ENERGY WILL BE TAPPED...AND
EXPECT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS OF SLEET OR SNOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THIS REGION. THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR HEAVY WINTER PRECIP
OVER THE CWA IS NOW THROUGH 4 AM...WITH THE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND MIDNIGHT OUT WEST AND 4 AM IN THE
EAST.

THE BEST COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS SITUATED ALONG A BAND
FROM ROUGHLY COMANCHE TO CLEBURNE TO SULPHUR SPRINGS. THIS IS
WHERE WE BELIEVE THE BAND OF HIGHER TOTALS OF SLEET/SNOW IS MOST
LIKELY WITH AMOUNTS POSSIBLY OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY
A 1 INCH AMOUNT OF SLEET/SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH OF THIS
BAND...BUT ALREADY A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE RED RIVER HAVE HAD 1
INCH OF SLEET. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...LOTS OF VARIATION FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION IN SNOW/SLEET
AMOUNTS IS LIKELY...SO DONT FOCUS TOO MUCH ON THE EXACT NUMBER FOR
YOUR AREA.

ESSENTIALLY NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE FORECAST AS IT
LOOKS ON TRACK. DID UPDATE SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS TO FOCUS IN
ON THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND WHERE WE BELIEVE THE HIGHEST TOTALS
WILL OCCUR.

TR.92

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1900hurricane

1900hurricane

Posted
Posted

cloud to ground lightning strikes on the scope down in Junction and San Saba.

 

wish there were some soundings near San Angelo, San Antonio, Camp Mabry, or Ft Hood to see what the atmosphere is like between DFW and DRT.

 

Yep, that's a pretty big upper-air hole over central Texas. For what it's worth, I believe A&M is going to do some type of sounding tonight, or it has at least been talked about.

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DoctorMu

DoctorMu

Posted
Posted

The high-res models were all kinds of fail this afternoon with this system.  I'm still wondering what the HRRR was doing when it was basically killing all the convection that we are seeing this evening as it moved NE and the freezing line moved SE. 

 

 

That look at the freakin' radar moment.   :snowing:

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Roy

Roy

Posted
Posted

Really snowing hard in Keller. Pretty impressive. Radar is coming east pretty rapidly though....need some backbuilding to really bust high here. The back edge is only a county or two away. WFAA said on FB had four more hours of this. Based on radar, maybe 2 hours at best for the west side of the metro.

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