Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 6

[bubba hotep]

Yes, guidance overall  is drier. GFS is quicker with the cold. It looks like models underestimated the dry arctic air.

 

Kind of what I was thinking, double edge sword with the cold coming in faster... there is a reason why it is hard to get winter weather up here with a positive tilted through. 

[bubba hotep]

Why don't we look at a radar which is blowing up precip

 

Good point, models could be underestimating lift with that impulse that is coming in.  So many hairs that can be split  

[ams30721us]

Why don't we look at a radar which is blowing up precip

LOL 

[David Reimer]

The HRRR has been as accurate as the farmers almanac today. I don't know what has gotten into it but it reminds me of the old RUC. Too warm and missing half of what's going on. I'm using a combination of the GFS and the 4KM NAM but at some point you have to put down the model porn and look out the window. 

[aggiegeog]

Why don't we look at a radar which is blowing up precip

I hope it stays that way, watching the area around Midland for the big event though maybe I can sneak in some sleet from the area around DFW. Temp at my place is 38.

 

Edit: RAP sounding does not look like anything besides rain here with the DFW batch.

[jhamps10]

Why don't we look at a radar which is blowing up precip

 

thank you... I NEVER understood the love with models when the event is already going on.... models are done for now, look at radar

[wxmx]

Radar is good for very short term. I think the main event for DFW is scheduled for 8pm+...radar won't help in that case.

[aggiegeog]

Besides the NAM and to a lesser degree the RGEM all models seem to be trending drier for tonight. Huge range in modeled QPF so the bust potential in either direction is large.

[wxmx]

As an interlude: The 18zGFS says "what spring? you got no stinkin' spring". Northern MX gets 30" of snow instead.

 

[Brent]

Well I agree the main show isn't this but still... some mets on TV were talking about a lull now and instead we have blossoming precip.

 

Just had a downpour mixed with sleet here temp at 31.

[Captmorg70]

Sleeting hard in Denton now

[bubba hotep]

Down to 31 here with heavy rain and some sleet

[aggiegeog]

Strong storms moving into my area.

[jhamps10]

starting to get sleet in SW ft Worth now

[Brent]

Accumulation has begun in Allen:

 

[cheese007]

Had a brief sleet shower in Richardson

[Quixotic1]

Almost all freezing rain with a few pingers here in Frisco

[bubba hotep]

As an interlude: The 18zGFS says "what spring? you got no stinkin' spring". Northern MX gets 30" of snow instead.

 

get_orig_img (1).png

 

I refuse to even look  Did the long predicted and sorely awaited -AO/NAO winter finally arrive? 

[Quixotic1]

As an interlude: The 18zGFS says "what spring? you got no stinkin' spring". Northern MX gets 30" of snow instead.

 

get_orig_img (1).png

Thought it was September with a TC!

[aggiegeog]

Raining at a rate of 3"/hr With thunder and lightning and a temp of 38.

[jhamps10]

I stepped outside as I forgot a few ingrediants for pizza tonight, noticed that it was forming a thin glaze of ice and sleet on the elevated railings of my apartment complex... we have a bridge to get from the building to the parking lot and could feel a thin layer forming on that too.. it's getting slippery in SW ft worth real quick in the next hour-2 hours IMO

[Brent]

We also are losing the sunlight... so it ought to be getting real icy even if after a little precip

[bubba hotep]

Radar is looking better and better as you head west down I-20 and then stuff keeps popping up in the DFW area.

[jhamps10]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0118
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 PM CST WED MAR 04 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 050051Z - 050645Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF CNTRL TX THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION RATES SHOULD REACH A
TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND BANDS WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ON THE TX
COASTAL PLAINS WITH A SUBFREEZING AIRMASS SETTLING IN OVER THE SRN
PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE TOP OF THIS COLD AIRMASS WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM THE WEST.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF SAN ANGELO.
SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP THIS ACTIVITY ENEWD INTO NCNTRL
TX AND THE TX HILL COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DUE TO A WARM
LAYER ABOVE 850 MB EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE FREEZING RAIN ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY ALSO
OCCUR. PRECIPITATION RATES OF A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND BANDS. LOCALLY HIGHER RATES MAY
OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

..BROYLES.. 03/05/2015


ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...

[DoctorMu]

32° drop in 90 min in CLL

[vwgrrc]

Heavy sleet around uptown dallas. Is this been forecasted? I remember everybody said things should start late tonight!

[bubba hotep]

Approaching 100% sleet here

[jhamps10]

just had a very heavy burst of freezing rain in SW FTW

[Roy]

Heavy sleet in Keller (briefly).

[Srain]

Folks, we lost a longtime member from New England today. There is a thread in the SNE sub forum for those of you that remember Messenger. My thoughts and prayers are with his young children and family. Drop a note in the SNE sub forum if you care to.