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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 6

Portastorm

By Portastorm,
in Central/Western States

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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

Big mess across Travis and Williamson Counties this morning (Metro Austin Area) as freezing drizzle has left the bridges and flyovers nearly impassable. WWA was upgraded to a Warning due to so many accidents being work throughout Metro Austin. The Red River, Taos and Angle Fire ski areas have received over 20 inches of new snow the past 24 hours with higher totals across the higher terrain such as Katchina and Wheeler Peaks where more than 4 feet of snow has fallen. Heavy snow is expected across those ski areas into Tuesday as the Western upper trough continues to pump up moisture from the Eastern Pacific.

 

sat_wv_hem_loop-12.gif

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

Big mess across Travis and Williamson Counties this morning (Metro Austin Area) as freezing drizzle has left the bridges and flyovers nearly impassable. WWA was upgraded to a Warning due to so many accidents being work throughout Metro Austin. The Red River, Taos and Angle Fire ski areas have received over 20 inches of new snow the past 24 hours with higher totals across the higher terrain such as Katchina and Wheeler Peaks where more than 4 feet of snow has fallen. Heavy snow is expected across those ski areas into Tuesday as the Western upper trough continues to pump up moisture from the Eastern Pacific.

 

sat_wv_hem_loop-12.gif

 

Big mess across Travis and Williamson Counties this morning (Metro Austin Area) as freezing drizzle has left the bridges and flyovers nearly impassable. WWA was upgraded to a Warning due to so many accidents being work throughout Metro Austin. The Red River, Taos and Angle Fire ski areas have received over 20 inches of new snow the past 24 hours with higher totals across the higher terrain such as Katchina and Wheeler Peaks where more than 4 feet of snow has fallen. Heavy snow is expected across those ski areas into Tuesday as the Western upper trough continues to pump up moisture from the Eastern Pacific.

 

sat_wv_hem_loop-12.gif

I can confirm that-very, very nasty morning here. I thought I left all this when I moved to the deep South. :(

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Big mess across Travis and Williamson Counties this morning (Metro Austin Area) as freezing drizzle has left the bridges and flyovers nearly impassable. WWA was upgraded to a Warning due to so many accidents being work throughout Metro Austin. The Red River, Taos and Angle Fire ski areas have received over 20 inches of new snow the past 24 hours with higher totals across the higher terrain such as Katchina and Wheeler Peaks where more than 4 feet of snow has fallen. Heavy snow is expected across those ski areas into Tuesday as the Western upper trough continues to pump up moisture from the Eastern Pacific.

 

sat_wv_hem_loop-12.gif

 

You can see the beginnings of our next system spinning down the west coast with its partner in crime coming over the top of the ridge and heading towards coastal Alaska. The evolution of those two pieces of energy will go along way to determine if we will see another round of winter weather.  Also, the up stream pattern will have a lot to say in what happens.  The 12z GFS was a shift in the right direction, when compared to 06z, and it really hammers NE Texas and Arkansas.  It also gets DFW with a pretty nice hit. Another week of model watching on deck? 

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Srain

Srain

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The 12Z trends came in a bit stronger with the shortwave diving into Arizona and Northern Mexico. Our Winter seems to have been front and back loaded with the usually cold mid November and now in late February/early March.

 

 

 

 

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Roy

Roy

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Posted

This is not on-topic, but don't think we have regional off-topic rooms...so feel free to delete mods. But, I just got a mailed red-light ticket for apparently not stopping long enough turning right. Looking at the video, I do come to a complete stop...a short one, but I do. I will make sure I do so much longer in the future, but I find this absurd. No police officer would have ever stopped me, but due to a camera, I get a "civil penalty." Anybody successfully contest these things at an administrative hearing? Somehow I doubt it's worth it, as these hearings are probably just meant to rubber stamp you owe the violation. Definitely one bad thing about moving here.

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vwgrrc

vwgrrc

Posted
Posted

NWS AFD on next system:

A strong cold front is prognosticated to move across North Texas Tuesday

night and bring much colder air and windy conditions. Since the

upper low will still be west of the region at this time...there

will be a potential for more winter weather Wednesday through

Wednesday night. It is much too early to assess the potential

impacts from this event but forecast soundings suggest that sleet

would be the primary precipitation type and if model quantitative precipitation forecast is

correct...it could be measurable and possibly significant.

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NJ_Ken

NJ_Ken

Posted
Posted

This is not on-topic, but don't think we have regional off-topic rooms...so feel free to delete mods. But, I just got a mailed red-light ticket for apparently not stopping long enough turning right. Looking at the video, I do come to a complete stop...a short one, but I do. I will make sure I do so much longer in the future, but I find this absurd. No police officer would have ever stopped me, but due to a camera, I get a "civil penalty." Anybody successfully contest these things at an administrative hearing? Somehow I doubt it's worth it, as these hearings are probably just meant to rubber stamp you owe the violation. Definitely one bad thing about moving here.

I don't know how it works in TX, but some states give you what is basically a one-time freebie. You have to fill out a form that, I think, lets you claim somebody else was driving. You can only do it once though. The next time you have to pay regardless.

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DFWWeather

DFWWeather

Posted
Posted

12z Euro EPS & Control are both supportive of a higher impact event, this might be worth tracking  :weenie:

 

Temps on the 12z ECMWF are very marginal any travel impacts. Only has lows around 30°F at coldest. However, the 12z GFS has us at 15°F and a very high impact event. Compromise will be in between. (Though I'm hoping this one falls apart.)

 

18z GFS has no event at all other than cold.

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jhamps10

jhamps10

Posted
Posted

This is not on-topic, but don't think we have regional off-topic rooms...so feel free to delete mods. But, I just got a mailed red-light ticket for apparently not stopping long enough turning right. Looking at the video, I do come to a complete stop...a short one, but I do. I will make sure I do so much longer in the future, but I find this absurd. No police officer would have ever stopped me, but due to a camera, I get a "civil penalty." Anybody successfully contest these things at an administrative hearing? Somehow I doubt it's worth it, as these hearings are probably just meant to rubber stamp you owe the violation. Definitely one bad thing about moving here.

 

I'm an insurance agent, and the GOOD news is, the red light tickets don't go on your record... I'd fight it if I were you especially if you have the video that shows that you DID go to a complete stop... you do have the right to fight it, 

 

 

but yes I think the red light cameras are nothing more than just a ploy to get the cities more money....

 

ANyway back on topic, the Wed system is getting ZERO play on the news right now, which is really surprising considering what the metroplex has gone through this week... 

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vwgrrc

vwgrrc

Posted
Posted

Temps on the 12z ECMWF are very marginal any travel impacts. Only has lows around 30°F at coldest. However, the 12z GFS has us at 15°F and a very high impact event. Compromise will be in between. (Though I'm hoping this one falls apart.)

18z GFS has no event at all other than cold.

Do you mean it might be too bad so you hope it falls apart?

BTW, I see 18z GFS still has decent ice for dfw. But I might be wrong

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Temps on the 12z ECMWF are very marginal any travel impacts. Only has lows around 30°F at coldest. However, the 12z GFS has us at 15°F and a very high impact event. Compromise will be in between. (Though I'm hoping this one falls apart.)

 

18z GFS has no event at all other than cold.

 

18z is about 0.30" qpf after DFW (airport) drops below freezing, so some sleet to snow.  Could be up to an inch of sleet but the ground will be warm and there probably wouldn't be too much accumulation. However, shift NE to Paris and it jumps to 0.75" qpf.  The models are going to struggle with this system with so many pieces of energy needing to be resolved. 

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vwgrrc

vwgrrc

Posted
Posted

18z is about 0.30" qpf after DFW (airport) drops below freezing, so some sleet to snow. Could be up to an inch of sleet but the ground will be warm and there probably wouldn't be too much accumulation. However, shift NE to Paris and it jumps to 0.75" qpf. The models are going to struggle with this system with so many pieces of energy needing to be resolved.

it's hard to call if ground is too warm. Some of the worst ice storms in south happened right after some very warm days.
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jhamps10

jhamps10

Posted
Posted

Crazy to think about another winter system, but we need moisture. Hopefully can get some storms Tuesday.

 

saw a tweet today that most area lakes went up on average 1' thanks to the moisture we have had this week, just a drop in the bucket to what we need but it's a start!

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ams30721us

ams30721us

Posted
Posted

Welp...interesting developments on the 00z Euro. Clearly it's jumping on board for a significant winter storm Wednesday-Thursday across the Texas. 

 

**Keep in mind a lot of this is most likely freezing rain & sleet (but some snow) but the bigger takeaway, plenty of precip indicated to spread across the state behind the arctic front Wednesday afternoon through Thursday midday. This could be a big mess for sure**

 

Stay Tuned! 

 

ecmwf_snow_24_texas_20.png

ecmwf_t2m_texas_18.png

ecmwf_t2m_texas_19.png

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ams30721us

ams30721us

Posted
Posted

:weenie:  :snowing:  :lmao:

Ohhhh...I see:

image.jpg

 

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
245 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WET PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. TODAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM NEAR NATCHITOCHES TO MONROE TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA.
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RIDING OVER THE COOLER AIRMASS NORTHWEST OF
THE FRONT TO ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
AVECT MUCH WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SHOULD BE INTERESTING ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE
UPPER 20S BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECTING RAIN TO TRANSITION
TO SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WITH A MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL
LOUISIANA.

OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN ON SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING UPPER-
TROUGH FROM TEXAS. /05/
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