bubba hotep Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Anyone checks out the 12z models? It's like they're toying with us now 12z Euro looks slightly stronger and a bit more south with tomorrow's s/w. There is a bit of an eastward expansion in the qpf. How much is sacrificed to moisten up the atmosphere? Looks like 0.5 to 1.5" of snow for DFW with higher amounts heading NW. Wouldn't take a big shift to get 2-3" into the area but a bad shift leaves looking like today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I still think winter's not over after tomorrow's event. The cold wave depicted for around March 5-6th looks mighty cold...it looks like a NW flow dry event, but there's energy depicted around Baja, which could make a difference, as the flow turns NE and moistens. Obviously, that's way out, but the overall pattern is well modeled, it's the detail on the pattern that would make the difference. We need the Baja energy to play along this time. We have had a really hard time getting something negative tilted this winter and this could be last chance with legit cold in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 No sign of Spring like weather in the Updated Day 8+ Analogs or the CPC Day 6 to 10 temperature and precipitation Outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Advisory flying for Dallas county. Somewhat surprised! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Mentioned 1 to 2 inches of snow for the Frisco area. I believe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 This is going to bust. It is going to bust high for everyone HRRR has an impressive precipitation shield moving out of W Texas tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 This is going to bust. It is going to bust high for everyone HRRR has an impressive precipitation shield moving out of W Texas tomorrow morning. You mean it should be a warning...lol hopefully! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 The Metroplex is set-up for a nice fluffy couple of inches. My area looks to have to deal with more low level dry air, but usually moisture will find its way east so I am hopeful that I will get an inch or so out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Sure hope the sw ejects further east than forecast. Will be on the edge, but looking good for at least some accumulation tomorrow, even if just a half-inch. Enough to at least have some white ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 The trend is real. Yesterday 18z GFS 0.00 QPF at DFW and today 18z comes in at 0.10 with most falling before transiotion to sleet. How much is sacrificed? After dry low levels are saturated we could still see an inch of fluff. Will it trend more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captmorg70 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 It's really expecting the atmosphere to be cold. The 534 thickness line is right around the DFW. What kinda ratios do you think we'd see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 It's really expecting the atmosphere to be cold. The 534 thickness line is right around the DFW. What kinda ratios do you think we'd see? FWD mentioned 0.1 qpf could mean 2" of additional snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captmorg70 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 FWD mentioned 0.1 qpf could mean 2" of additional snow Yea I saw that in the AFD. That just seems crazy high for around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Yea I saw that in the AFD. That just seems crazy high for around here Yes, that is freaking Champagne Powder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Yeah 1-2" sounds about right for DFW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 00z NAM is another slight shift, DFW is close to really getting in the game. DFW is b/w 0.20 and 0.25 qpf before switching to sleet or rain, that could be pushing the 3" range with the ratios FWD is talking. However, ratios will start to deteriorate as we move into Friday evening and warm air aloft starts pushing in. So maybe 2 - 2.5" on the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I'm guessing Dan saw the 00z NAM but isn't totally buying in just yet: Dan Henry @DanHenryFox4 16m16 minutes ago Regarding my snowfall forecast map. Those totals are not "etched in stone". A small change in track may shift totals North or South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I'm guessing Dan saw the 00z NAM but isn't totally buying in just yet: Dan Henry @DanHenryFox4 16m16 minutes ago Regarding my snowfall forecast map. Those totals are not "etched in stone". A small change in track may shift totals North or South. probably being extra conservative considering how Dan was the first tv met to go upwards with the snow Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Pretty much the same shift on the 00z GFS, just not as moist as the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 probably being extra conservative considering how Dan was the first tv met to go upwards with the snow Wed Yea, the funny thing (or not funny at all) is that if you always bet the under in DFW then you probably have a pretty good track record when it comes to snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Yea, the funny thing (or not funny at all) is that if you always bet the under in DFW then you probably have a pretty good track record when it comes to snow! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 FWD not bumping totals just yet, going to let the night crew make the call: 000FXUS64 KFWD 270417 AABAFDFWDAREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX1015 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015.UPDATE...WITH A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST IN PLACE REGARDING TIMING AND EXACTLOCATION WHERE SNOW BANDS SET UP FRIDAY MORNING...HAVE DECIDED THATCONFIDENCE WITH CURRENT FORECAST IS GOOD AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE.CANNOT RULE SNOW POSSIBLY ENTERING FAR WESTERN COUNTIES JUST BEFOREDAYBREAK...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 800MB ON TONIGHT/SFWD SOUNDING TO OVERCOME AND DECIDED IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR TOP-DOWNSATURATION. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS OF THE HRRR, WRF, AND NAM MODELSDO SHOW ABOUT A 1-2 HR SOONER ARRIVAL OF THE SNOW INTO THE I-35CORRIDOR FROM THE DFW METRO AND POINTS NORTH...AS THE BAND SETS UPIN AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION.AT THIS TIME...THE MORNING RUSH SHOULD BE `OK`...BUT SNOW WILLLIKELY ARRIVE BY 9 AM...IF NOT BETWEEN 8-9 AM IN THE WESTERN METROAND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THIS SYSTEM DOES SHOW SOME MODESTELEVATED INSTABILITY. SO ANY CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS OR SLIGHT SHIFTNORTH OR SOUTH COULD HAVE QUITE AN EFFECT ON LOCATION...AMOUNTSAND IMPACTS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 ON FRIDAY.00Z MODELS ARE JUST NOW FLOWING IN...SO WILL ALLOW THE OVERNIGHTFORECASTERS TO MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS IN LOCATION...AMOUNTS ANDIMPACTS WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 I'm shocked, shocked I tell you! No warm nose this go round: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Low DPs are worrisome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Low DPs are worrisome. We are certainly going to lose some qpf to the saturation process. It can be maddeningly slow at times and surprisingly quick at other times. From my time in DC, I prefer the waiting on saturation vs. waiting on change over. This past system was a perfect example, just watching hour after hour of rain fall that could have been glorious snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 We are certainly going to lose some qpf to the saturation process. It can be maddeningly slow at times and surprisingly quick at other times. From my time in DC, I prefer the waiting on saturation vs. waiting on change over. This past system was a perfect example, just watching hour after hour of rain fall that could have been glorious snow totals. I agree. My motto has always been "let's get the cold here first, then worry about the precip." Anytime the mid to lower levels are warm, we have to worry about latent heat release putting the screws to us. It's tough around here to get the entire column sub freezing AND have enough moisture to work with. That said, I think short waves dropping down from north of west are our best bets for that to happen. The west and southwest have too much opportunity for warm air to get involved. Let's hope it's dynamic enough overcome the dry air at the surface and jogs enough to get that 2-4" line into our neck of the woods. We're not to far away, but FWD has made some good calls this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Snow starting to move in on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 HRRR wants to develop a band of heavy snow across the northern burbs, looks like 0.30 - 0.50 qpf, that would be jackpot with these ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Odessa schools closed out west, so it looks like perhaps they got more snow than expected....at least it looks like they upgraded amounts overnight. That may mean this is tracking more south. Seems to be on radar to my very untrained eyes. But, would rather see it further south slightly still....and the area of snow is still quite narrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 27, 2015 Share Posted February 27, 2015 Radar is looking good, now the saturation waiting game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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