Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 6

[bubba hotep]

So I can plan on cold rain through Sunday? 

 

No, this is the real deal, this time, for real!

[jhamps10]

No, this is the real deal, this time, for real!

Sure it is... And The Cowboys will go 19-0 and win the super bowl next season.... Errr on second thought that joke doesn't work in dfw... They believe that every year!

Anyway the AFD was interesting on the Saturday freezing drizzle threat... Never saw that before on the models for the weekend... Then again I expext it to be 49 and rain with how this winter has gone

[bubba hotep]

Sure it is... And The Cowboys will go 19-0 and win the super bowl next season.... Errr on second thought that joke doesn't work in dfw... They believe that every year!

Anyway the AFD was interesting on the Saturday freezing drizzle threat... Never saw that before on the models for the weekend... Then again I expext it to be 49 and rain with how this winter has gone

 

Friday is the most intriguing to me, I can do without freezing drizzle on a Saturday.  Over the past couple of years we have had a couple of these NW flow systems that overperformed giving us a fluffy inch or two when basically nothing was expected.  Ratios could be high and anything that falls should stick around to get frozen drizzled on.

[aggiegeog]

It does look like we will get a inch or so Friday before warm air takes over aloft siding things to sleet then freezing drizzle into Saturday. Then we may finally start a real warming trend by Sunday.

[bubba hotep]

00Z NAM 4K raises some eyebrows for Friday

[bubba hotep]

Not surprising but the 21z SREF is also joining the party.  It has two distinct clusters with one being jackpot and the other light accumulations.

[tornadoguy11]

They need to stay on course this time if they produce any kind of accumulations, today was a huge disappointment!

[bubba hotep]

They need to stay on course this time if they produce any kind of accumulations, today was a huge disappointment!

 

Yeah, today was a tough one b/c it had so much potential but it had just as much bust potential. 

[tornadoguy11]

True, oh well bring on severe weather season, I'm ready.

[bubba hotep]

Now the 00z GFS is saying, "hey, I might want to spit out more than just flurries tomorrow"  

[tornadoguy11]

I'll believe it when I see it!

[tornadoguy11]

I wish we could get a decent snowstorm before winter ends

[bubba hotep]

I wish we could get a decent snowstorm before winter ends

 

This was probably our last legit chance.  The next few days look to offer up chances of dusting+ but probably not much more and then a warm up.  Then climo starts working against us pretty good and it takes threading the needle to get snow. 

[Quixotic1]

today was a toughie. Alabama got the goldmine and we got the shaft.

The crummy thing about this winter is how great it will be thought of because of the incredible February the east had, while the rest of us will remember a winter with few prospects. It will be talked about with reverence for some and cringe inducing for the rest. now that I've said that, we're sure to get 18" the next 48 hours.

[cheese007]

NWS bumped the snow chances up to 50% for McKinney Friday, with a high of 29. Wonder how Lucy will snatch the football this time?

[bubba hotep]

Just quick glancing on my phone and it looks like north and NW of DFW could see accumulations today and tomorrow. Maybe we actually bust high this time!

[Srain]

Some light accumulation is happening in Graham. Also flurries being reported just W of Ft Worth.

[jhamps10]

It's safe to say mamma nature is on drugs lol... Getting snow that's just about as hard as it was yesterday here in SW ftw... Which means flurries btw lol

[NJ_Ken]

I may be missing something, but that radar looks pretty juicy for the DFW right now.  That could lay down a couple of inches for some lucky backyards starting any minute now.      

[Roy]

It looks juicy, but there is dry air that they think will stop much accumulation. We will see I guess. At least it's snowing again where I can see some out the window now in north Fort Worth just barely east of 35W. Seems lighter than yesterday, but still visible. Tomorrow morning may be our last chance for winter with the pattern shift.

[jhamps10]

Can't wait for that blob of heavier returns to get in top of my office... We might get some accumulations soon if that hits and stays on top of a location long enough...

[jhamps10]

It looks juicy, but there is dry air that they think will stop much accumulation. We will see I guess.

Agreed, that's why I wanna see what that heavy returns over Parker county really are producing... Right now at 20 & Hulen it's a decent snow shower, but it's not accumulating at all here

[bubba hotep]

Flurries in Downtown Dallas! Victory!

[jhamps10]

It's coming down pretty good. The wind is blowing hard really reducing the visibility outside my office.. Saw a picture on Twitter that weatherford was getting a dusting

[The Waterboy]

Good luck Dallas folks. Hoping you get an inch or two after yesterday's disappointment!

[Roy]

Seems to be drying up on the NWS radar. The WUnderground radar looks better. But, I'm betting the truly strong stuff will....once again....pass to the southwest of FW based on NWS radar.

[Srain]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
915 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015


YOUNG-JACK-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-
SOMERVELL-COMANCHE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...
BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...CISCO...
EASTLAND...RANGER...GORMAN...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...
OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...COMANCHE...DE LEON
915 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CST
THIS AFTERNOON.

* LOCATION...THIS ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES OF
  YOUNG...JACK...STEPHENS...PALO PINTO...PARKER...EASTLAND...
  ERATH...HOOD...SOMERVELL AND COMANCHE.

* TIMING...NOW THROUGH 1 PM.

* ACCUMULATION...SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL AVERAGE A HALF INCH TO 1
  INCH OVER THE ADVISORY AREA. ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY SEE UP TO 2
  INCHES.

* MAIN IMPACT...TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING AND ACCUMULATING
  SNOW WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES
  AND OVERPASSES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND PLAN ON SOME TRAVEL DELAYS.

SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON
ELEVATED SURFACES. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE THE FIRST
LOCATIONS WHERE ICY SPOTS MAY DEVELOP. PLEASE TRAVEL WITH CAUTION.

 

[Captmorg70]

Anyone checks out the 12z models? It's like they're toying with us now

[wxmx]

I still think winter's not over after tomorrow's event. The cold wave depicted for around March 5-6th looks mighty cold...it looks like a NW flow dry event, but there's energy depicted around Baja, which could make a difference, as the flow turns NE and moistens. Obviously, that's way out, but the overall pattern is well modeled, it's the detail on the pattern that would make the difference.

[wxmx]

For tomorrow's event, it looks like a decent one for the Panhandle and just west of the metroplex...it's gonna be dicey for DFW, lots of variables and full of win/bust potential, once again. NE TX looks like will be the loser this round.