Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 6

[cheese007]

We've got snow/sleet here as well. Now will it stick/will the system push through too fast? Bust potential is growing by the moment

[bubba hotep]

Back to sleet... we may not even see 1"

[aggiegeog]

The further east you are the more snow especially along I-30.

[cheese007]

Back to sleet... we may not even see 1"

At the rate this is going we'd be lucky to see a dusting down here. Almost tempted to call it quits and go get some more sleep

[NTXYankee]

I think it's safe to call this a bust. Still raining in Lewisville and radar is looking pretty bleak westward.

[bubba hotep]

 

[cheese007]

"Well, the Stat Method clearly missed the timing with this precipitation type forecast. It appears temperatures aloft were just a degree or two too warm to allow the snowflakes to make it to the ground when they were supposed to (i.e., 4 AM) . Radar indicates heavy snow is falling about 8,000 feet above the Metroplex, but a thin layer of 35 °F air at this level is causing the snow to melt and fall to the ground as rain and even pockets of sleet. The Stat Method was forecasting this layer to be 33 °F not 35 °F. 33 °F air would have allowed the large snowflakes currently falling at 8,000 feet to survive their trip all the way to the ground. 35 °F air does not. We should still be able to transition over to snow before the precipitation ends as the air at 8,000 feet continues to chill, but since this transition was supposed to begin at 4 AM, snowfall totals will be less than what the SM was going for yesterday. I guess the good news is, this has been a very good rain for the area, and before it ends later this morning, we will get to see some large snowflakes." - Meteorologist Steve McCauley

 

Tl;dr this is more than likely a bust and 2 degrees aloft made all the difference. What a fitting end to a disappointing winter

[bubba hotep]

I think it's safe to call this a bust. Still raining in Lewisville and radar is looking pretty bleak westward.

 

Even the early very conservative 1-3" call by FWD looks to bust... 

[Srain]

Sleet reported in Bastrop.

[aggiegeog]

Sleet coming down pretty good here. With a light coat of freezing rain on all the trees. Still looking for 3" or so of snow.

[bubba hotep]

Sleet coming down pretty good here. With a light coat of freezing rain on all the trees. Still looking for 3" or so of snow.

 

Good luck! Sounds like what happened here but we went rain/freezing rain, to sleet, to fail... 

[cheese007]

At least we have severe season to look forward to! 

[jhamps10]

bust... bust... bust... this winter has sucked worse than if you were a Cubs fan

[bubba hotep]

Ok,maybe seeing some improvements on radar from SW Tarrant county up towards Denton. Maybe a band trying to form? 

[bubba hotep]

bust... bust... bust... this winter has sucked worse than if you were a Cubs fan

 

I'm a life long Cubs fan... 

[aggiegeog]

Good luck! Sounds like what happened here but we went rain/freezing rain, to sleet, to fail...

Our advantage here is that we still have all moring to go with precip. Y'all started getting the warm nowe cooled too late for much.

[Roy]

Well, this is a huge bust. No snow in Keller as I left for work. Roads not even slick in spots. Now, I will say it is actually snowing where I teach a few miles to the south. Really coming down good here, so at least I have seen snow falling this winter. It's just flying really good with decently low visibility.The WUnderMap seems pretty accurate, as it shows rain everywhere but for this little sliver area in North Fort Worth. The bad thing is....it is showing more and more rain with each frame.

 

Probably Collin County northeast will get it. But for everybody else.....not so sure. And that precip edge keeps moving east.

 

Really disappointing since it really was looking good at midnight last night. Thank goodness we had the sleet the other day since the pattern looks to shift to warmer soon.

 

Maybe all this moisture is a good omen for a wetter spring with severe weather? The little creek by the school is fuller than I have seen it since I moved to Fort Worth last summer.

 

IF it was just slightly cooler up there, this would have been a really, really good snow, and that's from someone who grew up with foot snowfalls every couple years.

[1900hurricane]

Just enough of a warm nose to screw things up.

 

[bubba hotep]

[aggiegeog]

Switched to all snow. Tiny flakes falling pretty heavily.

[tornadoguy11]

Snowing here in Denton.

[Srain]

Rain/sleet mix reported in Brazos County.

[Srain]

1.5 inches of snow reported in Meridian (Bosque County). Snow reported in Commerce and Cooper.

[Captmorg70]

Yea definitely turned out a bust with the warm nose. It's snowing here in Denton, but if it switched over at 4am Could have been so much better. Here's to hoping there is more moisture for the Friday snow chances

[bubba hotep]

Switched to all snow. Tiny flakes falling pretty heavily.

 

Y'all may have a chance, I'm guessing the system stayed positive tilted too long to save DFW.  We were supposed to really get our snow on the wrap around as the system wound up or maybe it just stayed too far south.  Lots of ways to bust on snow! 

[Roy]

Precip now drying up on radar over me now, not just moving east. iWeathernet expects more development. Well, it seems to be happening to the northwest. Maybe enough to give an inch if lucky. Nevermind....not that expansion is breaking up.

[Srain]

Snow now reported in DT Dallas.

[NTXYankee]

At least we have severe season to look forward to! 

We hope anyway.

[cheese007]

Still rain in Richardson

We hope anyway.

With the way severe seasons have been going some sarcasm was implied 

[bubba hotep]

Finally, big fat flakes! But too little too late