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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 6

Portastorm

By Portastorm,
in Central/Western States

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

NWS really should upgrade everyone north of I-20 to a Winter Storm Warning.

 

This is one of the biggest forecast fiascos I can ever remember for DFW.

Honestly, they're making the right call. We know there's going to be a general fall of 1-4" which is below warning levels. Unless you're certain of where the heavier banding is going to setup, then why change it until it is imminent?

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DFWWeather

DFWWeather

Posted
Posted

Honestly, they're making the right call. We know there's going to be a general fall of 1-4" which is below warning levels. Unless you're certain of where the heavier banding is going to setup, then why change it until it is imminent?

 

Most models are showing along and north of I-20 picking up at least 4 inches.

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
Posted

Temps at the surface are not an issue, aloft there is some warmth at 850 so may start ad sleet which will make things even worse for when the snow piles on top. The models still are not seeing quite how cold the surface is and the are not picking up on the current precip over Central Texas very well. I am expecting up to a half inch of sleet before sunrise then 3"+ of snow on top and I highly doubt we clear freezing by much again tomorrow.

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DFWWeather

DFWWeather

Posted
Posted

so that forecasted temps could be a huge bust?

 

No not what he is saying. He is saying when temperatures are very near the freezing mark up to about 34°F some of our heaviest snowfalls on record occurred. For example, the Feb 2010 which brought us 12+ inches. Temps were around the 30 to 34°F range.

 

I bet temps at DFW get to 30°F at the coldest with this event. Current, temp is 33°F with a dew of 26°F.

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DFWWeather

DFWWeather

Posted
Posted

Temps at the surface are not an issue, aloft there is some warmth at 850 so may start ad sleet which will make things even worse for when the snow piles on top. The models still are not seeing quite how cold the surface is and the are not picking up on the current precip over Central Texas very well. I am expecting up to a half inch of sleet before sunrise then 3"+ of snow on top and I highly doubt we clear freezing by much again tomorrow.

 

Maybe a little cold, but some sun is expected tomorrow afternoon and even with snow, temps should get to near 40 or so. However, upper 40s and lower 50s on some forecasts I've seen is way too warm with accumulated snow.

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
Posted

Maybe a little cold, but some sun is expected tomorrow afternoon and even with snow, temps should get to near 40 or so. However, upper 40s and lower 50s on some forecasts I've seen is way too warm with accumulated snow.

I expect we won't see much sun in East Texas tomorrow afternoon.

We have a good shot at having at least something frozen on the ground from yesterday morning until Saturday afternoon

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vwgrrc

vwgrrc

Posted
Posted

No not what he is saying. He is saying when temperatures are very near the freezing mark up to about 34°F some of our heaviest snowfalls on record occurred. For example, the Feb 2010 which brought us 12+ inches. Temps were around the 30 to 34°F range.

I bet temps at DFW get to 30°F at the coldest with this event. Current, temp is 33°F with a dew of 26°F.

so how long does the snow stay in those events... That's what I was wondering
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DFWWeather

DFWWeather

Posted
Posted

so how long does the snow stay in those events... That's what I was wondering

 

The 12 inch snow was around for 2.5 days. Though more than half was gone after day 1. Would've been around a lot longer had temps plummeted into the mid 20s as predicted after it fell, but they did not. 30°F was the coldest I think.

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ams30721us

ams30721us

Posted
Posted

Alright, got a few hours of sleep in. ready to hit this morning strong! 

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1023 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOTS TO TALK ABOUT THIS EVENING...AS CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WINTER
STORM WARNING WERE NEEDED BASED ON MUCH OF THE 18Z GUIDANCE AS
WELL AS THE NEW 00Z WRF RUN. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY REACHED OR FALLEN
BELOW FREEZING AS OF 03-04Z...ESPECIALLY WHERE AN ICEPACK REMAINS
FROM MONDAY/S WINTER STORM. THE EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES
THAT THE CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR EL PASO WILL CONTINUE E INTO
CNTRL TX OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD TAKE ON MORE OF A NEUTRAL TILT
AS IT NEARS THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY MIDMORNING WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z KSHV
RAOB REVEALS A LARGE MELTING LAYER BETWEEN 530-900MB...WITH THE
SUBREEZING LAYER HAVING WARMED 2C IN THE LAST 12 HOURS...WITH THE
DEPTH OF THIS SUBFREEZING LAYER ALSO HAVING THINNED SLIGHTLY AS
WELL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE INITIALIZED POORLY ON THIS
SUBFREEZING LAYER AND REMAIN A BIT TOO WARM...AND FEEL THAT
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN DURING THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH ALLOWS THE COLUMN TO QUICKLY
COOL AFTER 12Z...THUS RESULTING IN A TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW.
AREAS OF NCNTRL LA MAINLY ALONG/N OF A MANSFIELD...TO WINNFIELD
AND COLUMBIA LINE CURRENTLY AT/BELOW FREEZING SHOULD REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE EVENT DURATION...AND WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A LITTLE
LONGER DURATION OF SLEET BEFORE THE COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
PW/S ACROSS THESE AREAS ARE ALSO NEARING AN INCH AS
WELL...RESULTING MORE IN A HEAVY/WET SNOW WHICH COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

ATTM...BELIEVE THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EXTREME NE TX/SW AR/EXTREME SE OK...WITH TOTALS OF 4-6
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 7-8 INCHES POSSIBLE. CLOSER TO
THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX...LOOKING AT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-4
INCHES...WITH AREAS OF NW AND NCNTRL LA POSSIBLY SEEING 3-6
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
FORCING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARNING AREA...WHERE LIQUID EQUIVALENTS LOOK
TO RANGE FROM 0.40-0.80 INCHES /PER THE 00Z WRF/. THE HEAVY
SNOWFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISHING FROM W TO E DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS DRY SLOTTING ALOFT SPREADS E BEHIND THE TROUGH. IN
ADDITION...STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500MB LAYER MAY RESULT IN
ISOLATED AREAS OF THUNDERSNOW/SLEET...WHICH WOULD ENHANCE
SLEET/SNOWFALL RATES ESPECIALLY ACROSS EXTREME ERN TX AND N LA. EVEN
THOUGH TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
THE EXPANDED WARNING AREA...THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES WILL OFFSET
MELTING...ALLOWING FOR GREATER ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
THE ICEPACK REMAINS.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN TEMPS TONIGHT...AS WELL AS
POPS/WEATHER TYPES FOR LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATED SUITE OF PRODUCTS ARE OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY. 

 

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

The first round of rain seems to be going further east than north. Was that supposed to be that way?

 

We won't get much of anything from the front end, the real show starts when the dry nose punches in and (or if) the warm tongue starts to wrap around. 

 

ETA: Radar looks great, a nice shield expanding towards DFW 

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Alright, got a few hours of sleep in. ready to hit this morning strong! 

 

I've got a glass of whiskey and am about to turn in for a few hours.  Figure I'll set the alarm for 3:00 am, the office already called for a late open, if we open at all :guitar:

 

ETA: Dan Henry just Tweeted out that he thinks we transition to snow around 6:00 am and it holds on until around noon before moving out. 

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jhamps10

jhamps10

Posted
Posted

I've got a glass of whiskey and am about to turn in for a few hours.  Figure I'll set the alarm for 3:00 am, the office already called for a late open, if we open at all :guitar:

 

ETA: Dan Henry just Tweeted out that he thinks we transition to snow around 6:00 am and it holds on until around noon before moving out. 

 

congrats on the late open, which will probably end up being a no-open.. I'm hoping for the same here... if the snow is still raking up until noon I'm praying the boss says don't open at all.. not holding my breath there lol

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vwgrrc

vwgrrc

Posted
Posted

I've got a glass of whiskey and am about to turn in for a few hours.  Figure I'll set the alarm for 3:00 am, the office already called for a late open, if we open at all :guitar:

 

ETA: Dan Henry just Tweeted out that he thinks we transition to snow around 6:00 am and it holds on until around noon before moving out.

Probably transit earlier than that?

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