jhamps10 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 CBS 11 just bumped totals to 4" INCLUDING dfw metroplex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 03z HRRR was 5-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 NWS really should upgrade everyone north of I-20 to a Winter Storm Warning. This is one of the biggest forecast fiascos I can ever remember for DFW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 03z HRRR was 5-7" why the number keep growing...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Just checked, nice sleet base around the yard to accumulate on right out of the gate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 AA already canceling 170 flights for tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Wow...even the GFS in line...this is going to be very crazy I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captmorg70 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 My guess NWS is waiting for Euro. Plus RAP is drier and RGEM is more south. A winter storm warning upgrade overnight wouldn't be surprising though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 NWS really should upgrade everyone north of I-20 to a Winter Storm Warning. This is one of the biggest forecast fiascos I can ever remember for DFW. Honestly, they're making the right call. We know there's going to be a general fall of 1-4" which is below warning levels. Unless you're certain of where the heavier banding is going to setup, then why change it until it is imminent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Honestly, they're making the right call. We know there's going to be a general fall of 1-4" which is below warning levels. Unless you're certain of where the heavier banding is going to setup, then why change it until it is imminent? Most models are showing along and north of I-20 picking up at least 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The first round of rain seems to be going further east than north. Was that supposed to be that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Fort Worth ISD already announced 2 hour delay. My gosh that must be a first. When I was in school in that district, ice had to be on the road and they wouldn't announce closures until 6am. My how things have changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Wow...even the GFS in line...this is going to be very crazy I think. probably can't be a significant event because the temps are really too high! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 probably can't be a significant event because the temps are really too high! Climatologically speaking that couldn't be more true for North Texas. Some of our biggest snows have occurred with surface temperatures in the 31-34F degree range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 probably can't be a significant event because the temps are really too high! Someone mentioned something earlier in the thread about these types of events generating their own cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captmorg70 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The first round of rain seems to be going further east than north. Was that supposed to be that way? Some of the models are hard to tell with the 3/6 time frames. But it's generally going east. Look at around Abilene and west that is starting to develop now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Temps at the surface are not an issue, aloft there is some warmth at 850 so may start ad sleet which will make things even worse for when the snow piles on top. The models still are not seeing quite how cold the surface is and the are not picking up on the current precip over Central Texas very well. I am expecting up to a half inch of sleet before sunrise then 3"+ of snow on top and I highly doubt we clear freezing by much again tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Climatologically speaking that couldn't be more true for North Texas. Some of our biggest snows have occurred with surface temperatures in the 31-34F degree range. so that forecasted temps could be a huge bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 so that forecasted temps could be a huge bust? No not what he is saying. He is saying when temperatures are very near the freezing mark up to about 34°F some of our heaviest snowfalls on record occurred. For example, the Feb 2010 which brought us 12+ inches. Temps were around the 30 to 34°F range. I bet temps at DFW get to 30°F at the coldest with this event. Current, temp is 33°F with a dew of 26°F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Temps at the surface are not an issue, aloft there is some warmth at 850 so may start ad sleet which will make things even worse for when the snow piles on top. The models still are not seeing quite how cold the surface is and the are not picking up on the current precip over Central Texas very well. I am expecting up to a half inch of sleet before sunrise then 3"+ of snow on top and I highly doubt we clear freezing by much again tomorrow. Maybe a little cold, but some sun is expected tomorrow afternoon and even with snow, temps should get to near 40 or so. However, upper 40s and lower 50s on some forecasts I've seen is way too warm with accumulated snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Maybe a little cold, but some sun is expected tomorrow afternoon and even with snow, temps should get to near 40 or so. However, upper 40s and lower 50s on some forecasts I've seen is way too warm with accumulated snow.I expect we won't see much sun in East Texas tomorrow afternoon. We have a good shot at having at least something frozen on the ground from yesterday morning until Saturday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 No not what he is saying. He is saying when temperatures are very near the freezing mark up to about 34°F some of our heaviest snowfalls on record occurred. For example, the Feb 2010 which brought us 12+ inches. Temps were around the 30 to 34°F range. I bet temps at DFW get to 30°F at the coldest with this event. Current, temp is 33°F with a dew of 26°F. so how long does the snow stay in those events... That's what I was wondering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 so how long does the snow stay in those events... That's what I was wondering The 12 inch snow was around for 2.5 days. Though more than half was gone after day 1. Would've been around a lot longer had temps plummeted into the mid 20s as predicted after it fell, but they did not. 30°F was the coldest I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Alright, got a few hours of sleep in. ready to hit this morning strong! AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA1023 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015.DISCUSSION...LOTS TO TALK ABOUT THIS EVENING...AS CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WINTERSTORM WARNING WERE NEEDED BASED ON MUCH OF THE 18Z GUIDANCE ASWELL AS THE NEW 00Z WRF RUN. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY REACHED OR FALLENBELOW FREEZING AS OF 03-04Z...ESPECIALLY WHERE AN ICEPACK REMAINSFROM MONDAY/S WINTER STORM. THE EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATESTHAT THE CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR EL PASO WILL CONTINUE E INTOCNTRL TX OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD TAKE ON MORE OF A NEUTRAL TILTAS IT NEARS THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY MIDMORNING WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z KSHVRAOB REVEALS A LARGE MELTING LAYER BETWEEN 530-900MB...WITH THESUBREEZING LAYER HAVING WARMED 2C IN THE LAST 12 HOURS...WITH THEDEPTH OF THIS SUBFREEZING LAYER ALSO HAVING THINNED SLIGHTLY ASWELL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE INITIALIZED POORLY ON THISSUBFREEZING LAYER AND REMAIN A BIT TOO WARM...AND FEEL THATFREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN DURING THE ONSET OFPRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATEDWITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH ALLOWS THE COLUMN TO QUICKLYCOOL AFTER 12Z...THUS RESULTING IN A TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW.AREAS OF NCNTRL LA MAINLY ALONG/N OF A MANSFIELD...TO WINNFIELDAND COLUMBIA LINE CURRENTLY AT/BELOW FREEZING SHOULD REMAIN SOTHROUGH THE EVENT DURATION...AND WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A LITTLELONGER DURATION OF SLEET BEFORE THE COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH FOR SNOW.PW/S ACROSS THESE AREAS ARE ALSO NEARING AN INCH ASWELL...RESULTING MORE IN A HEAVY/WET SNOW WHICH COULD RESULT INISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.ATTM...BELIEVE THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL OCCUR ACROSSEXTREME NE TX/SW AR/EXTREME SE OK...WITH TOTALS OF 4-6INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 7-8 INCHES POSSIBLE. CLOSER TOTHE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX...LOOKING AT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-4INCHES...WITH AREAS OF NW AND NCNTRL LA POSSIBLY SEEING 3-6INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. GIVEN THE VERY STRONGFORCING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL BEPOSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARNING AREA...WHERE LIQUID EQUIVALENTS LOOKTO RANGE FROM 0.40-0.80 INCHES /PER THE 00Z WRF/. THE HEAVYSNOWFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISHING FROM W TO E DURING THEAFTERNOON AS DRY SLOTTING ALOFT SPREADS E BEHIND THE TROUGH. INADDITION...STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500MB LAYER MAY RESULT INISOLATED AREAS OF THUNDERSNOW/SLEET...WHICH WOULD ENHANCESLEET/SNOWFALL RATES ESPECIALLY ACROSS EXTREME ERN TX AND N LA. EVENTHOUGH TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSSTHE EXPANDED WARNING AREA...THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES WILL OFFSETMELTING...ALLOWING FOR GREATER ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY WHERETHE ICEPACK REMAINS.ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN TEMPS TONIGHT...AS WELL ASPOPS/WEATHER TYPES FOR LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.UPDATED SUITE OF PRODUCTS ARE OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLESHORTLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The first round of rain seems to be going further east than north. Was that supposed to be that way? We won't get much of anything from the front end, the real show starts when the dry nose punches in and (or if) the warm tongue starts to wrap around. ETA: Radar looks great, a nice shield expanding towards DFW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Alright, got a few hours of sleep in. ready to hit this morning strong! I've got a glass of whiskey and am about to turn in for a few hours. Figure I'll set the alarm for 3:00 am, the office already called for a late open, if we open at all ETA: Dan Henry just Tweeted out that he thinks we transition to snow around 6:00 am and it holds on until around noon before moving out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I've got a glass of whiskey and am about to turn in for a few hours. Figure I'll set the alarm for 3:00 am, the office already called for a late open, if we open at all ETA: Dan Henry just Tweeted out that he thinks we transition to snow around 6:00 am and it holds on until around noon before moving out. congrats on the late open, which will probably end up being a no-open.. I'm hoping for the same here... if the snow is still raking up until noon I'm praying the boss says don't open at all.. not holding my breath there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I've got a glass of whiskey and am about to turn in for a few hours. Figure I'll set the alarm for 3:00 am, the office already called for a late open, if we open at all ETA: Dan Henry just Tweeted out that he thinks we transition to snow around 6:00 am and it holds on until around noon before moving out. Probably transit earlier than that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm out until the wee hours of the morning, y'all hold it down, this could be winter completing the 80 yd bomb in the 4th qtr with about 7 min to go! Still time for this to turn into a blow out, don't drop the ball Old Man Winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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