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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 6

Portastorm

By Portastorm,
in Central/Western States

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jhamps10

jhamps10

Posted
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A lot of places have been closed for the last two days and the early message this evening was, "mehhh, no big deal, over early, melts for drive home" but seemed to leave out the "getting there" part. 

 

yup, everyone was like oh hey we can get home, but nobody seems to care about how your going to get there in the morning.. the heaviest snow is supposed to hit during the rush hour so that will be interesting to say the least.

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cheese007

cheese007

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yup, everyone was like oh hey we can get home, but nobody seems to care about how your going to get there in the morning.. the heaviest snow is supposed to hit during the rush hour so that will be interesting to say the least.

Last year at my campus they gave the go ahead for school to start even though they knew snow was coming and it was yet to fall. Ended up sliding through two intersections and getting to campus only to have class immediatly canceled. Bonus was the snow melted soon after. Was the February event for those curious

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jhamps10

jhamps10

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Last year at my campus they gave the go ahead for school to start even though they knew snow was coming and it was yet to fall. Ended up sliding through two intersections and getting to campus only to have class immediatly canceled. Bonus was the snow melted soon after. Was the February event for those curious

 

heh I remember that one... the office I was working for told us to go home at 2, which was right when it started melting lol

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

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For those worried about ratios, the NAM 4K spits out nearly 1" of QPF for the NE burbs. The soundings that I was looking at earlier would probably be in the 8:1 range, now if you adjusted them to reflect the colder than modeled temps at the surface...  (wild card is what does the whole column end up looking like) 

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

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For those worried about ratios, the NAM 4K spits out nearly 1" of QPF for the NE burbs. The soundings that I was looking at earlier would probably be in the 8:1 range, now if you adjusted them to reflect the colder than modeled temps at the surface...  (wild card is what does the whole column end up looking like)

Your wild card is what I'm wondering about too. I think there could be a period of sleet then the heavy snow.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

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FWD has changed forecast from all snow to a rain/snow mix in the grids. Interesting...wonder if they are thinking this might all fall as rain?

 

Yea, they adjusted the grids at some point this evening.  I went from Snow and 2-4" to Rain/Snow 1-2", thought that was odd given the model data coming in.  At this point, it's almost go time, dig in and make your best call. 

 

They mentioned the RAP coming in dryer but I haven't looked at it in days.  Maybe they are going with the RAP and 12z Euro/EPS?

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DFWWeather

DFWWeather

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My best call is someone is going to get clobbered and someone is going to bust...

 

Steve McCauley's stat method is usually pretty spot on. Coupled with the latest model data. What a call! Wouldn't be surprised to see a Warning issued in the morning for parts of the DFW Metro anyway.

 

There lies a lot of the NWS confusion right there. They have so many different products each saying a different accumulation amount.

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