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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 6

Portastorm

By Portastorm,
in Central/Western States

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DFWWeather

DFWWeather

Posted
Posted

I think watch to advisory is upgrading.

 

No its a downgrade. A Watch means there is the possibilities of 4 inches or more of snow or 1/4 of an inch of ice or sleet within the next 36 hours. Watch can be downgraded to an Advisory if those criteria are not likely to be met or upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning or Ice Storm if requirements are expected to be met or exceeded when the event is within 24 hours or already occurring. A Watch is almost never issued if they know with confidence criteria will not be met for a Winter Storm.

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ams30721us

ams30721us

Posted
Posted

 

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS UPGRADED THE WINTER

STORM WATCH TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW

...WHICH IS IN

EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY.

 

 

Also...They do have 4"+ possible in portions of the advisory area. A Winter Weather Advisory is an upgrade from a Winter Storm Watch. 

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Roy

Roy

Posted
Posted

It really doesn't matter what the NWS claims when they say "upgrade" in political-speak....a watch to advisory is a downgrade because that watch did not pan out into a warning. They don't issue winter weather advisory watches....it's a winter storm watch. Regardless, something panned out in that at least there is an advisory for some snow. Hoping to see some white stuff in the morning even though it will be gone by 3 p.m.

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DFWWeather

DFWWeather

Posted
Posted

Also...They do have 4"+ possible in portions of the advisory area. A Winter Weather Advisory is an upgrade from a Winter Storm Watch. 

 

It didn't used to be (so has something changed?). A Winter Storm by definition for North Texas is 4 inches + of snow or 1/4 inch + of ice. Anytime amounts were expected to be less than that they just issued SWS and went straight to an Advisory once event began. There is no such thing as an Advisory Watch. It must not be widespread enough 4+ inches to go with a Warning over the Advisory area, or they are just not that certain. Thus, Watch to Advisory has always been a downgrade.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Also...They do have 4"+ possible in portions of the advisory area. A Winter Weather Advisory is an upgrade from a Winter Storm Watch. 

 

It was the safe play.  I'm sure there was some pressure to not go Warning unless extremely confident in the forecast.  Many school and offices have already been closed for 2 days and a Warning would carry a lot of weight with the decision makers.  I've never worked with the NWS, so I don't know what kind of culture they have when it comes to the politics of things, but I do know that us in some of the other science agencies aren't always making decisions based solely on the science of things. 

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
Posted

After going over all the current models (besides the Euro) I can't get away from thinking someone in NE TX could push a foot out of this. All models are severely too warm for this afternoon and they are printing out an average of around .5" QPF tomorrow. I keep seeing that temps will be in the mid 30s tomorrow while I actually think we may stay below freezing all day in NE TX.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

And the 18z GFS takes a huge leap towards the NAM :lol:   Without seeing a sounding, it looks like 7:1 or 8:1? So it would fit in the 2-4" call from FWD but that is assuming that it doesn't trend stronger with the dynamics overnight.  Also, I've seen it mentioned elsewhere that the new GFS is too warm at the boundary layer during snow events. We are back down to 32. 

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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

Afternoon briefing from Jeff:

 

Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 300am to 900am Wednesday for snow/sleet for Trinity, Houston and Madison Counties.

 

Upper level trough will move across the region tonight and early Wednesday with warm layer aloft gradually cooling to below freezing. Strong lift will come to bear across the region late tonight generating light rain and drizzle over much of the area. High resolution forecast models show a band of slightly heavier banded precipitation over our northern counties Wednesday morning. Temperatures in the “snow growth” level will be near or falling to below freezing near/at the time of maximum lift which supports a change of light rain to light sleet/light snow.

 

Most favored area for a mix of winter precipitation of rain/sleet/snow or change to sleet and snow will be from Madisonville to Crockett to Trinity. Surface temperatures are expected to range from 32-34 across this region Wednesday morning suggesting much of what falls will melt on contact with the ground. However any higher sleet/snow rates in the banded precipitation may result in a quick ½ to 1 inch of accumulation on rooftops, grassy areas, and elevated objects.

 

Further south from College Station to Huntsville to Livingston rain may mix with sleet and snow, but do not expect a full changeover given a less favorable freezing profile aloft.

 

Metro Houston area should remain all rain, but cannot rule out a sleet pellet or snow grain mixing with the rain. Temperatures will be in the middle to upper 30’s resulting in any frozen precipitation melting on contact with the ground.

 

Thursday looks by far the best day of the week…and it will be far from great with partly cloudy skies and continued cold temperatures. Another arctic front blasts through the area Thursday night with cold air advection in place on Friday resulting in another cold day with increasing clouds and highs likely in the 40’s. Models have been trending colder behind this front and yet again another storm system will approach from the SW US. Will keep all precipitation liquid for now in the Friday night/Saturday time period and watch temperatures trends very closely over the next 48 hours. Could see freezing/frozen precipitation over parts of C TX/N TX yet again Friday into Saturday and freezing temperatures over portions of SE TX Friday night and Saturday morning. Precipitation chances at the moment during the critical temperature period look to only be in the 20-30% range.   

 

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David Reimer

David Reimer

Posted
Posted

The National Weather Service has been moving towards a 3-tiered system for Winter Storm Products.

 

Level 1: Winter Storm Watch highlighting the potential for accumulating winter precipitation and impacts.
Level 2: Winter Weather/Travel Advisory for accumulating winter precipitation with some impacts expected.
Level 3: Winter Storm Warning for significant winter accumulations. 

The 'advisory' may previously have been considered a downgrade but at least for Texas offices it no longer will be so. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Winter Storm Warning issued for parts of North Texas later tonight, especially if the 21Z HRRR is correct. For those who are a fan of Dennis Cavanaugh by the way - he'll be on the midnight shift once again at FWD. 

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

Posted
Posted

David and several others on here said these types of storms are a mets nightmare, so that may come true. It makes me think of when I lived in Charlotte and this type of system came through and everyone called for a dusting, well we ended up closing early and by evening almost a foot of snow.

I am a little surprised by the rain to snow from FWD with a expected low of 29. I think this will be an interesting storm to watch and some surprises with it too.

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