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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 6

Portastorm

By Portastorm,
in Central/Western States

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

He did one a couple of summers ago that was off the charts, it was for a low probability dry line event.  Most AFD would have simple been "dry and hot" blah blah.  He went way out in the deep water to describe how storms could fire and then mentioned that it was like a 5 - 10% event.  It ended up just being dry and hot 

 

I remember that one.  It was a great way to take our mind off of the crummy set up.  

 

Late to the party so trying to compensate with a keg stand?

 

Ha.  A rather apt analogy.  Sounds like an A&M made one.  

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wxmx

wxmx

Posted
Posted

What's causing that?  A downsloping wind like a Chinook?

Nope, CAD from a very shallow arctic dome, plus the surface low associated to the Upper low causing WAA for them (the same one that may drop snow over DFW), but overrunning the cold dome on top of me. It will eventually sweep it off completely, but not until tomorrow.

post-29-0-19468400-1424805145_thumb.png

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

Nope, CAD from a very shallow arctic dome, plus the surface low associated to the Upper low causing WAA for them (the same one that may drop snow over DFW), but overrunning the cold dome on top of me. It will eventually sweep it off completely, but not until tomorrow.

attachicon.gifScreen Shot 2015-02-24 at 12.49.00.png

Very cool (or not,for those that live in Saltillo).  An interesting example of cold air damming with a twist.  Thanks for sharing that.   

 

Living in North Texas, it's easy to forget geographical features and how they play a role in weather.  DFW is probably the only big city in the country that has absolutely no reason to exist.  No ocean, mountains or rivers.  Flat as a pancake.  

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ams30721us

ams30721us

Posted
Posted

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA

241 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST REASONING FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER

WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME A

WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND

NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. MAIN THREAT WILL BE UP TO FOUR INCHES OF

SNOW. SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN

EFFECT WITH SNOW AND SLEET BEING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER

THREATS. TOUGH FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST. ONE OF THE CONTRIBUTING

FACTORS IS THAT WHATEVER ICE REMAINS ON THE GROUND OVERNIGHT WILL

PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. IF HIGH TEMPS

STAY AROUND FREEZING...THE CHANCE OF SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS

RUN HIGHER. FOR THIS FORECAST...WENT WITH MUCH COOLER

TEMPERATURES THAN GUIDANCE WITH MOST OF THE REGION STAYING AT OR

SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS SLEET LATE TONIGHT. AS UPPER-LOW

TRANSLATES EASTWARD OVER THE REGION...COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO

TRANSITION SLEET INTO SNOW. NAM AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS

OF HIGHEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. NAM

MODEL SUPPORTS HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND

SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WHILE THE GFS IS SIGNALING HIGHERS

ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS. BASED ON PERFORMANCE OF NAM

DURING THE PREVIOUS EVENT ON MONDAY...LEANED HEAVIER ON THE NAM IN

DECISION MAKING FOR THIS FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION TO END ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DRY

CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK

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Roy

Roy

Posted
Posted

Did a new forecaster take over for the afternoon? The tone of the AFD seemed to change almost immediately with the 11 a.m. update to probably less than 2-4. Nothing had really changed in three hours.

 

Now the latest SREF does shift south right over the metroplex, while before it was a bit more north over the core cities.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Once again clouds and this time ice also are keeping temps much cooler than modeled and forecasted. Here I have yet to hit freezing. This could have significant effects on tomorrow morning's snow ratios.

 

We are sitting at 33, not sure how much higher we will go.  Clouds have thickened up a good bit over the past hour, lots of sleet still on the ground and north winds. 

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

FWD will be downgrading the WS Watch to an Advisory. Going with 1 to 2 inches of wet snow possible.

 

Not a bad call for DFW and they can always upgrade if the Hi-Res models make any shifts this evening.  North and east may go 4"+ but that is still tricky looking.  You have the NAM vs GFS/Euro/Euro EPS  

 

ETA: A bit surprised they didn't go Warning for the Greenville, Paris, Sulphur Springs area heading into the SHV Warning area. 

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