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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 6

Portastorm

By Portastorm,
in Central/Western States

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Well that was great little event. Still ongoing over here in East Texas. I was very surprised to see the changeover to snow today. Added a nice blanket on the ice. Oh well...Wednesday next up and sure looks very interesting! Cold core low is a weatherman's woe! 

 

 

 

Euro EPS pretty much agrees with the operational and has 2-4" for everyone. 

 

ETA: 15z SREF is 2"+ area wide

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

Yep, that was a pure, we didn't care to look or dive into this forecast. Like how is everyone around you talking about accumulating snow potential with watches issued and you're talking rain in that little gap over the ArklaTex?

Yeah, once the area has had an event it seems it would be easier to make that kind of call. At least a SWS. Something.

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jhamps10

jhamps10

Posted
Posted

Oh yes, a weenies nightmare! If and where the TROWAL sets up will be hard to stomach for some :lol:

 

very hard... I remember a storm one time that shafted me by 5 MILES when I was living in Illinois, it was NOT fun.

 

Btw roads are refreezing RAPIDLY in the past 40 minutes... don't hit the roads in the metroplex, so many wrecks that nobody can keep up at this moment, I really think tomorrow morning's rush could be worse than this morning

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Roy

Roy

Posted
Posted

I am thinking the same cheese. It will require thundersnow to really overcome the temps, or the temps to come in colder later. I could see an inch, but hard to see any more without convection. The watch appears harsh to me with 1-3. A winter weather advisory makes sense. They may be doing so just in case totals have to be increased.

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NTXYankee

NTXYankee

Posted
Posted

It will be a heavy wet snow and that can accumulate quick. Used to see it frequently in Ohio and North Carolina, especially early in the season or spring. Wasn't uncommon to have a big snow accumulate quickly with temps in the mid-upper 30's in those scenerios. The air above will be very cold but the warmer surface layer will be thin enough to not melt the snow and compact it more.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

00z NAM is so close to a crush job for DFW  :weenie:  :snowing:   The NE burbs crew really cashes in, it looks like 6"+ for me and more as you head out towards Oklahoma. And for those worried about temps, NTXY hit the highlights for these types of events - I saw it in DC, but FWD has my low at 26, the NAM is warmer than that but at or below freezing for the whole event.  Also, I wouldn't be surprised if we still have sleet around here on the ground when it starts to snow. 

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jhamps10

jhamps10

Posted
Posted

Warning!!! This is model output and NOT a forecast....

 

Here's a website that I loved using when I lived back in Illinois for snowfall forecasts that can be zoomed into NWS radar site format. they can be a bit tricky but here's what the NAM is showing based on the 0Z run tonight... FYI this is a live link and WILL update with 0 and 12Z runs for those reading in the future...

 

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays-10to1.php3?STATIONID=FWS

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David Reimer

David Reimer

Posted
Posted

A word of caution for those using pure-model snow output. Snow ratios will likely be in the 6:1 up to 8:1 range versus the typical 10:1 range tomorrow night. With lots of moisture and a 'wet snow' expect the ratios will be lower. However the wet, sticky, heavy snow is going to cause big problems Wednesday morning even if surface temperatures are in the 33-34 degree range. February 2010 was the same way in that heavy wet snow can still accumulate even with surface temperatures just above freezing. If heavy enough the colder air will actually advect down and drop surface temperatures. Going to have to watch very closely. It has a high bust potential. Luckily whatever happens it'll melt by Wednesday afternoon. 

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1900hurricane

1900hurricane

Posted
Posted

Speaking of snow, there have been some reports of the stuff in places such as just south of College Station, in Huntsville, and even in some of the SW Houston suburbs. What is strange about this is that observed upper air data doesn't really support such reports at all. Despite a killer warm nose aloft, these reports have proved to be legit. I was kicking around some ideas with a few mets on Twitter earlier, but the only thing for sure is that some strange conditions must have come together on a small scale just perfectly for this to have happened.

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1900hurricane

1900hurricane

Posted
Posted

Here's the latest from HGX on the unusual snow in the area.

 

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
805 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BASED ON CURRENT OBS/REPORTS FROM LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND SE TX
HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH ADDING THE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW (WITH THE
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE) FOR TONIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. WAS
A BIT SURPRISED BY THE REPORTS/PICTURES OF SNOW AS PROGGED AREA
SOUNDINGS WERE MORE INDICATIVE OF ZR/ZL...HOWEVER A CLOSER LOOK
(SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW) WOULD SEEM TO INDICATE OTRW. 41

&&

AVIATION...
SO NOT GOING ACCORDING TO PLAN TONIGHT. UTS REPORTED SNOW AND
TWITTER SHOWED SOME ICY/SNOW MIX ON CARS AND EVEN A VIDEO OF A
FLURRY IN MISSOURI CITY. SPECIAL SOUNDING FROM TAMU SOUP CREW
SHOWS A 3900FT DEEP SUBFREEZING LAYER (MIN AT -5.5C) AT CLL AND
AMDAR SOUNDING AT IAH SHOW A SUBFREEZING LAYER BEGINNING ABOUT
750FT ABOVE GROUND WITH 1750 FT OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
THAT BUT ONLY DOWN TO -2C. THIS DEEPER LAYER UP NORTH MUST BE
ACCOUNTING FOR THE SHALLOW SNOW FORMATION ZONE. THE TAMU SOUNDING
HAS BEEN CRITICAL IN DIAGNOSING THIS PHENOMENON. 12-18Z MODELS
HAVE DRAMATICALLY UNDERESTIMATED THE DEPTH AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
COLD AIR OVER THE CLL/UTS TERMINALS. HAVE ADDED -SN TO CLL/UTS
TERMINALS AS SPEED MAX NEARS AFTER 09Z. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING FOR IAH/HOU TERMINALS BUT MIGHT SEE A SPIT OF SNOW
OR SLEET MELTING AFTER CONTACTING THE GROUND.

CIGS HAVE FALLEN TO 700-1200FT ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD REMAIN
THERE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

A word of caution for those using pure-model snow output. Snow ratios will likely be in the 6:1 up to 8:1 range versus the typical 10:1 range tomorrow night. With lots of moisture and a 'wet snow' expect the ratios will be lower. However the wet, sticky, heavy snow is going to cause big problems Wednesday morning even if surface temperatures are in the 33-34 degree range. February 2010 was the same way in that heavy wet snow can still accumulate even with surface temperatures just above freezing. If heavy enough the colder air will actually advect down and drop surface temperatures. Going to have to watch very closely. It has a high bust potential. Luckily whatever happens it'll melt by Wednesday afternoon. 

 

Boo this man! :lol:  The 00z GFS says, "what snow ratios?"  This is an intriguing event with high bust potential, as you noted, and I've seen these type events bust when I was up in DC.  However, when they hit they really hit, it will be ripping out there for whoever cashes in.  

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