bubba hotep Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Radar is kind of spotty looking now but the latest run of the HRRR increases coverage and intensity as things move through the DFW area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Getting a decent sleet shower now, it looks like south Dallas is getting it pretty good right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 looking at the radar, seems like sleet really starting to explode in intensity once you get into Parker county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 2" of sleet reported 12 miles SW of Weatherford per NWS FWD https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/569834244261986304 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 looking at the Abilene radar, precip is starting to fill in as you get west of the metroplex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Ripping sleet here, messing up my chance to sleep late on a Monday! ETA: Roads are turning white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Radar is kind of spotty looking now but the latest run of the HRRR increases coverage and intensity as things move through the DFW area. still increasing?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Right at the start of rush hour for businesses that did not make a decision either or said they would be open.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Morning briefing from Jeff: Colder air mass has moved in faster than expected requiring changes to Freezing Rain Advisory start times. Freezing Rain Advisory will begin at noon today-600am Tuesday for: Burleson, Brazos, Madison, Walker, Houston, Trinity, and Polk Counties Freezing Rain Advisory will begin at 600pm today-600am Tuesday for: Washington, Grimes, Montgomery, San Jacinto, and Liberty Counties. 600am temperatures range from 35 at College Station to 43 at BUSH IAH to 27 at Dallas. Freezing line currently extends from near Austin to Texarkana and has been steadily progressing southward this morning. High temperatures for today have already been reached and temperatures will continue to slowly fall into the 30’s area wide by early afternoon. Freeze line will move into our northern counties between noon and 200pm and then progress southward to a Brenham to Conroe to Cleveland line by 600pm. Regional radars show extensive freezing rain and sleet across much of N TX into the Hill Country and this is confirmed by hazardous road conditions in those areas. Short wave in the flow aloft over New Mexico will move across TX today helping to enhance the precipitation across the region. Where surface temperatures fall to freezing, light rain and drizzle will change to light freezing rain and freezing drizzle. Elevated objects such as trees, power lines, and bridges/overpasses will be cooling to freezing with the air temperature allowing ice accumulation on these surfaces. Soundings and profilers show the forecasted strong warm layer aloft in place with temperatures above 40 degrees a few thousand feet above the surface. Since rainfall is expected to be very light, not sure much if any of the warm layer aloft will mix down helping to offset the cold air advection…this was a concern yesterday that would prevent temperatures from falling as much…but this does not appear to be the case today. Fairly high confidence that the ongoing strong cold air advection will push the freezing line into the area this afternoon. Question then becomes how far south does the freezing line progress tonight into Tuesday morning and how much precipitation falls during this period. 00Z model guidance has trended a degree warmer for tonight even though all guidance is running about 3-4 degrees too warm at the moment. Expect the freezing line tonight to move as far south as a Columbus to Waller to The Woodlands to Splendora line. Forecast models show the best precipitation chances in the noon-midnight time period today with chances decreasing between midnight and 600am on Tuesday. Accumulations: Ice accumulations in the advisory area will average .01 to .05 of an inch with possibly higher amounts in the Huntsville to Livingston area where temperatures will be below freezing the longest. Road temperatures are fairly warm from the 80 degree highs yesterday and will slowly cool through the day. Suspect surface air temperatures will need to reach at least 30-31 for ice formation on bridges and overpasses. With that said, freezing drizzle is historically the most dangerous of winter precipitation as roadway surfaces can appear dry, but actually have a thin coating of ice…so caution is advised even if the bridge deck appears dry. Wednesday Morning: Forecast models show the main upper level storm system moving nearly overhead early Wednesday morning with rapid cooling of the warm layer aloft. While surface temperatures will have warmed into the mid 30’s by this time early Wednesday, sounding profiles suggest rain may change to or mix with sleet. Precipitation in this time period looks much heavier than today. Not expecting any accumulations with surface temperatures above freezing, but will need to monitor for any additional P-type changes or changes in surface temperatures. Freezing Rain/ice accumulation (>.01 of an inch) threat probabilities: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=icez&amt=1&day=1&ftype=probabilities Decision Support Matrix: Burleson, Houston, Madison, Walker, Trinity, San Jacinto, Polk: Ice Accumulation: .03-.06 of an inch Timing: noon Monday-600am Tuesday Temperatures: 28-30 degrees Winds: NNE 15-20mph Confidence: high Transportation: anti-ice operations likely Education: delays and cancellations possible Aviation: anti-ice operations likely Power: isolated outages possible Brazos, Grimes, Washington, Montgomery, Waller, northern Liberty: Ice Accumulation: .03-.05 of an inch Timing: 600pm Monday-600am Tuesday Temperatures: 30-32 degrees Winds: NNE 10-15mph Confidence: moderate Transportation: prepare for anti-ice operations Education: delays possible Aviation: anti-ice operations likely Power: isolated outages possible Austin, Colorado, north Harris (Cypress-Spring-Kingwood), central Liberty: Ice Accumulation: patchy ice accumulation possible Timing: 1000pm Monday-600am Tuesday Temperatures: 32-33 degrees Winds: NNE 10-15mph Confidence: moderate Transportation: monitor trends/standby equipment and personnel Education: delays possible Aviation: anti-ice operations possible at Hooks and IAH Power: None Fort Bend, southern Harris, Wharton, Jackson, Matagorda, Brazoria, Galveston, Chambers: Ice Accumulation: None expected at this time Timing: N/A Temperatures: 33-35 degrees Winds: NNE 14-18mph Confidence: moderate Transportation: None Education: None Aviation: None Power: None Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0093 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E-CNTRL AND NE TX INTO NWRN LA CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 231335Z - 231700Z SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN RATES AROUND 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. A MIX P-TYPE WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS CLOSEST TO THE DFW METROPLEX AND FAR NERN TX. DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AT 1330Z SHOWS A DISCONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS N-CNTRL INTO E-CNTRL AND NERN TX. KCRS RECENTLY OBSERVED A FREEZING RAIN RATE IN EXCESS OF 0.05 INCH/HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION AROUND H7 AND IS IMPLIED VIA CHANGES AROUND THE MELTING LAYER WHEN COMPARING THE 00Z AND 12Z FWD RAOBS. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS CONTRIBUTING TO LOCALIZED HEAVIER BURSTS OF SLEET WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER N-CNTRL TX EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS AREA OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT OVER N-CNTRL TX MOVING TO THE ENE TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE SRN FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS MORNING. INTERPOLATED THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE 12Z AREA RAOBS SUGGEST A CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE TO THE S OF WHERE SLEET IS FORECAST MAINLY FROM PARTS OF N-CNTRL TX INTO SWRN AR. WET BULB COOLING AND LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL LIKELY DROP TEMPS BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PARTS OF NERN TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS A RESULT...FREEZING RAIN RATES FROM E-CNTRL TX INTO NWRN LA MAY REACH AROUND 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS /LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NERN TX INTO NWRN LA/. ..SMITH.. 02/23/2015 ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Reports coming in across Travis and Williamson Counties of icing of flyovers and bridges. Accidents being worked in several locations across Metro Austin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Snow flurries reported in Del Rio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Still sleeting, what a waste, this could've been a nice little snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Still sleeting, what a waste, this could've been a nice little snow indeed... would have made the roads a lot easier to deal with too instead of cobblestone ice 2.0 (which is starting to happen on 20 in Ft Worth and 377 in Benbrook... but yet my boss still thinks we need to open *grumbles* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Some flakes starting to mix in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Still sleeting, what a waste, this could've been a nice little snow See forecast indicates decent chance of snow Wednesday morning. But temps look really warm there. Probably no accumulation or road impact? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Sleet has arrived here in Tyler,TX accumulating fast. Already a covering on things in about 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 See forecast indicates decent chance of snow Wednesday morning. But temps look really warm there. Probably no accumulation or road impact? Wouldn't take much of a south trend to make something of this, 12z NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Cold Core Upper Low equals Weatherman's Woe. NWS FWD will have an interesting AFD about Wednesday morning up shortly. Interesting discussion going on right now in NWSChat. Concern is certainly there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Cold Core Upper Low equals Weatherman's Woe. NWS FWD will have an interesting AFD about Wednesday morning up shortly. Interesting discussion going on right now in NWSChat. Concern is certainly there. It's certainly worth monitoring. I cannot recall how many times over the years these 5H lows have thrown wrinkle in the best forecast even 6 hours out and with sounding data that was very recent and warm yet still busted with a burst of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 It's certainly worth monitoring. I cannot recall how many times over the years these 5H lows have thrown wrinkle in the best forecast even 6 hours out and with sounding data that was very recent and warm yet still busted with a burst of snow. 02232015 12Z GFS gfs_namer_051_500_vort_ht.gif It will be interesting to see what the 12z Euro has to say. The 12Z NAM is deeper and has it going neutral as it moves across Texas but the GFS is weaker and keeps a positive tilt. Now, if the was depicted on the NAM could trend deeper and go negative across... but when was the last time we saw one go negative? It seems like it has been forever but maybe I'm missing a non-fronzen event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 33° and wintry mix in CLL with super tiny snowflakes, sleet and mostly water droplets. We're outperforming by a degree or two and need just a degree or two colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I picked a crappy week to get the flu. Nap time. Y'all out in Northeast/East/Central Texas enjoy the winter weather this afternoon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I picked a crappy week to get the flu. Nap time. Y'all out in Northeast/East/Central Texas enjoy the winter weather this afternoon! Bummer, maybe the Euro will have something interesting to look at after the nap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 12z Euro looks a bit north of the GFS but they certainly aren't as deep as the 12z NAM. A few, usually conservative, forecasters are kind of hyped up about Wednesday morning. It will be interesting to see what FWD has to say in the afternoon AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Well that was great little event. Still ongoing over here in East Texas. I was very surprised to see the changeover to snow today. Added a nice blanket on the ice. Oh well...Wednesday next up and sure looks very interesting! Cold core low is a weatherman's woe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Chris has been spot on all winter, this is from his Twitter this afternoon: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Chris has been spot on all winter, this is from his Twitter this afternoon: A tad south and it would be perfect, but I would take an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'll take it a bit sw please for good measure... Just stoked to hopefully see snow... Real snow, none of this sleet crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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