Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 6

[David Reimer]

How do you get the 12z ECMFW so early? I don't usually get access to it for another couple hours or so.

 

Most likely WeatherBell or EuroWX.

[David Reimer]

For anyone interested I'll be chatting with Dennis Cavanaugh (NWS FWD) and John Burgdorf (DFW Scanner) at 8:30 PM CT tonight at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cx7BCewyREE&feature=youtu.be.

 

Anyone who knows Dennis knows he's one of the best forecasters out there. 

 

EDIT: Didn't mean to have the YouTube video embed here. Sorry about that!

[DFWWeather]

For anyone interested I'll be chatting with Dennis Cavanaugh (NWS FWD) and John Burgdorf (DFW Scanner) at 8:30 PM CT tonight at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cx7BCewyREE&feature=youtu.be.

 

Anyone who knows Dennis knows he's one of the best forecasters out there. 

 

EDIT: Didn't mean to have the YouTube video embed here. Sorry about that!

 

I think he was the one that did the write-up on the "cobblestone" ice storm of Dec 2013 on the FWD page. I'll have to see if I can find that provided it is still on the web.

 

Here it is: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=december72013

[vwgrrc]

Wunderground suddenly dropped the temp to frz at 6pm for n Dallas. That's weird, considering they normally pretty consistent and accurate inside 3 days.

[Srain]

HGX issues Freezing Rain Advisories basically N of Austin, Waller, Harris, and Chambers Counties.

[Roy]

Never heard of cobblestone ice until I moved here from West Texas last year. We had it in KS often, but we never called it anything but just....ice. 

[DFWWeather]

Never heard of cobblestone ice until I moved here from West Texas last year. We had it in KS often, but we never called it anything but just....ice. 

 

We call it just ice too until that storm last year. That was the first time I heard the term too and I've lived here over 35 years.

[aggiegeog]

Temps today are 5+ degrees cooler than modeled today and precip is more widespread and heavier also. Things will go downhill fast tonight and tomorrow will be a day to stay at home. I have my doubts about much warning before Wed afternoon or it may wait until Thursday. Then the next one will be here by late week so no break.

[jhamps10]

Never heard of cobblestone ice until I moved here from West Texas last year. We had it in KS often, but we never called it anything but just....ice.

Same here, never heard it called that until I moved down here from Illinois..

I live in south ft worth and with how big these rain drops are, I would not be surprised if we get sleet mixing in at the end of this 1st batch.. I really wouldn't, I think tomorrow will be a nightmare on the roads and there's going to be an issue with a lot of ice if nothing else from the rain we are getting now, there's minor flooding going on in a couple of underpasses near the joint reserve base at 30 and hwy 183... This will be a day tomorrow to go nowhere I believe...

[Roy]

The 12Z GFS did seem to start the freezing temps earlier, around 8 or so, vs 10-midnight like before. I note also that the bottoming temps are now in the mid-low 20s on there vs. mid-upper at least here in the Alliance Fort Worth area. Some precip right before freezing too that might freeze in addition to the sleet of course. Love that meteogram template. I am not the best at reading models, so it helps to have an idiot-proof text data output. 

[aggiegeog]

18Z NAM now on board with the colder temps so the outliwehas given in. It shows close to half an inch of sub freezing precip in my area.

[bubba hotep]

Freezing line is through Durant and pushing into Gainesville. Denton is down to 34, so not long before the NE burbs start falling. 

[Quixotic1]

Showing 33 IMBY. Was 36 hour ago. Took 4 hours to get from 40 to 36. The surge is pushing through.

[jhamps10]

looks like MAF hoisted a WSW for their far NE counties up by Synder

[DoctorMu]

Showing 33 IMBY. Was 36 hour ago. Took 4 hours to get from 40 to 36. The surge is pushing through.

 

Tentacles of advection are reaching CLL (52°) and Hearne (48°) with temps dropping in the afternoon and northerly winds increasing.  Ahead of schedule.

[Quixotic1]

Tentacles of advection are reaching CLL (52°) and Hearne (48°) with temps dropping in the afternoon and northerly winds increasing.  Ahead of schedule.

Going to bet that you'll have something to look at before this is all said and done.

[ams30721us]

Just getting to a computer today. 

 

And it has begun in the DFW Metro. Temps falling into the mid 30s around the city and dropping fast as freezing line approaches....Snow being reported at TX Dot office in Graham...and sleet accumulating in Bowie...

 

Let the fun begin! 

[jhamps10]

Winter storm warning starting NOW for metroplex:

 

 

 

000
FXUS64 KFWD 222200
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TAKING SHAPE FOR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...

.SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES...

WINTER STORM WARNING START TIME HAS BEEN MOVED UP TO START NOW.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY START TIME HAS BEEN MOVED UP TO 9PM.

SLEET ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA. ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM FREEZING RAIN
HAVE BEEN NUDGED UP SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA
FARTHER SOUTH. HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT CURRENT POSITION OF COLDER AIR. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY HAVE BEEN LOWERED BY 2-3 DEGREES. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
FORECAST CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON.

.TECHNICAL DISCUSSION...

MUCH COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES NOW MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY
ACROSS THESE AREAS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FARTHER EAST...A COLD RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS THE FIRST WAVE OF LIFT MOVES
TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S WHERE THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING SO NO
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED. SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP CLOSE
TO AN INCH OF RAIN BUT THIS INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
EVENING.

SIGNS OF THE SECOND WAVE OF ASCENT ARE ALREADY BEING INDICATED ON
RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS WEST TEXAS. SOME AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED BUT THIS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN SCATTERED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE BETTER FORCING
WILL ARRIVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR
SO...BUT IT WONT BE COMPLETELY VOID OF ACTIVITY. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE INTERMITTENT AREAS OF PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOP IN POCKETS OF
STRONGER FORCING THAT STREAM ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS LATE THIS EVENING
COULD BE IN THE FORM OF A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA. THE FREEZING LINE WILL SURGE SOUTH
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE
LONGER FARTHER EAST. IT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE METROPLEX BY 0Z
OR A LITTLE LATER. BY 3-4AM...MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING.

THE STRONGEST FORCING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OVERSPREAD NORTH TEXAS IN
THE 3-5AM TIMEFRAME WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUING INTO
THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. THE COMPACT UPPER LOW SOUTH OF
CALIFORNIA IS IN THE PROCESS OF EJECTING NORTHEAST NOW AND ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ACROSS NORTHWEST
MEXICO. THESE SEEM TO BE THE FEATURES THAT REALLY PROVIDE THE
FORCING FOR ASCENT LATE TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW... WE THINK THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR EASTLAND
TO DFW TO SHERMAN...AND AREAS NORTHWEST OF THERE THROUGH ABOUT
10AM ON MONDAY. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION TTU-WRF AND 4KM NAM
CONTINUE TO YIELD HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AS BOTH
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY INDICATE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO THE
PRECIPITATION. SREF PLUMES OF MUCAPE AND ANALYSIS OF ALL AVAILABLE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ANYWHERE FROM 100-150J/KG OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THIS WILL SUPPORT
THUNDERSLEET THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BURSTS OF SLEET CAN
QUICKLY ACCUMULATE TO AN INCH OR MORE IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...WE THINK THAT MOST AREAS IN THE CURRENT
WARNING WILL SEE BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 INCH OF SLEET. FARTHER
NORTHWEST...FROM FORT WORTH TO BOWIE...ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 1 1/2
INCH OF SLEET WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MORNING BUT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH.

FARTHER SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX...WHERE THE CURRENT ADVISORY IS
POSTED...THE WARM NOSE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE STOUT INITIALLY.
THIS MAY KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID AS OPPOSED TO SLEET. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING...SOME LIGHT ICING IS
EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE WORST ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY BUT
WE WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES IN THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME WITH
LITTLE ADDITIONAL IMPACT.

TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING SO
ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET/ICE WILL NOT MELT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED TRAVEL PROBLEMS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.

LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE END OF THE WEEK SYSTEM AS THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLY MODEL UNCERTAINTY. WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE THURSDAY INTO LATE FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

DUNN

[cheese007]

Already getting some wintry mix in Richardson

[bubba hotep]

Down to 35 here, it's getting close 

[jhamps10]

wind has started howling here in Ft Worth in the past hour

[bubba hotep]

Down to 34 here with soaking rain continuing.  I like the way the radar is looking, showers popping up along I-20 all the way into west Texas.  

[Captmorg70]

It's now switched over to sleet and flurries here in Krum. Just north of Denton

[jhamps10]

Down to 34 here with soaking rain continuing.  I like the way the radar is looking, showers popping up along I-20 all the way into west Texas.  

 

agreed... we may get a break from heavy rains but I don't see it being just freezing drizzle overnight.... 

 

and the closings begin... UNT health in Ft Worth, and all Dallas Co. Offices closed tomorrow

[bubba hotep]

18z NAM and GFS seem to be trimming back the precip with the 2nd wave that pushes through later tonight and into tomorrow morning. 

 

[tornadoguy11]

Sleeting here on the East side of Denton.

[cheese007]

Got a rumble of thunder here in Richardson

[bubba hotep]

Got a rumble of thunder here in Richardson

 

Nice! We are down to 33, just waiting on the pingers. 

[aggiegeog]

39 and raining at a rate of an inch an hour.

[Roy]

Sleet now in Keller mixed with rain.