Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 6

[vwgrrc]

0z has a drier Tuesday.

[bubba hotep]

Not really seeing any major changes with the 00z GFS, it is going to come down to the placement of mesoscale features and where convective sleet sets up.  It is slightly cooler as the first slug of precip pushes through on Sunday afternoon/evening, wouldn't take much to start the show early. 

[vwgrrc]

QPF seems to be dropping doesn't it? Not a met here, but the 0Z GFS seems to really drop amounts. Maybe to advisory level stuff.

Any other models confirm this? I could only see GFS.

[bubba hotep]

QPF seems to be dropping doesn't it? Not a met here, but the 0Z GFS seems to really drop amounts. Maybe to advisory level stuff.

 

The 00z GFS and NAM are 0.6 - 1"+ area wide, the 21z SREF is .90-1"+ area wide, the 12z Euro EPS is 0.6"+  area wide.  It is just going to come down to the timing and strength of the impulses that move through.  The biggest difference that I am seeing is how the models handle the northern edge of the precip shield, but that is a concern for Oklahoma and not really north Texas. 

[Roy]

Yeah, I deleted the post since I looked closer and looked like I was exaggerating the difference. Will help to get the higher res stuff. Hope it freezes on the roads early enough I get at least a late start. Hate driving in the ice. Looks like it should be at freezing by 9 to 11 or so tomorrow night here on the west side of the metro.

[Captmorg70]

I'd stay it's holding steady as far as QPF. Through end of event has .5 or so. The first .1 or .2 may be rain. Even .3 as sleet is looking at 1 inch of sleet

[bubba hotep]

Yeah, I deleted the post since I looked closer and looked like I was exaggerating the difference. Will help to get the higher res stuff. Hope it freezes on the roads early enough I get at least a late start. Hate driving in the ice. Looks like it should be at freezing by 9 to 11 or so tomorrow night here on the west side of the metro.

 

Yea, even if the lower totals verify we are still looking at 0.25" falling as sleet, so that is close to an inch?  It will be cold enough that we won't see much melting and that will turn everything into a mess.   

[Captmorg70]

Highest QPF model so far is definitely the RGEM. .5 to .75 is rain rest looks frozen....

[bubba hotep]

It looks like the 00z GFS is already running a few degrees too warm at short range.  Will that matter come tomorrow afternoon? Who knows!?

[bubba hotep]

Dan Henry is calling for 1/2+ of sleet for Dallas, he has  been spot on so far this winter. 

[Quixotic1]

Next weekend looks to be gone too. Bummer.

[bubba hotep]

Next weekend looks to be gone too. Bummer.

12z Euro had it, too far out to throw in the towel!

[vwgrrc]

NWS updated the WSW at midnight. Basically higher amount of sleet and earlier arrival of freezing. Exactly like what Dan Henry and Steve Macaulay said.

[ams30721us]

I love this line from Shreveport last night:

 

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
950 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015

.UPDATE...
REWORK POPS AND WEATHER A BIT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND LOWER A
COUPLE OF LOW NORTH WHERE SOME FAIR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR A CHILL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS OVER ALL BUT OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF LOUISIANA
PARISHES. THE DROP IS SUDDEN AND 60S QUICKLY FALL INTO THE 50S AND
40S. WE EVEN SEE A FEW 30S NORTH WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OFF A
BIT. WE ARE THINKING THE CLOUDS WILL WORK BACK IN THOUGH WITH
TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE FRONT RANGE AT THIS TIME. LOTS OF CIRRUS
ON THE WAY OVER NORTH TEXAS NOW. SO WE WILL STABILIZE IN THE 30S
NORTH TO A RANGE OF 40S ELSEWHERE. THE SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING AND
WORKING EAST NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT...STRETCHING FROM NEAR
LUFKIN...TO COUSHATTA...TO NEAR EL DORADO. NO OTHER CHANGES TO
REPORT WITH ALL PRODUCTS UP TO DATE AND AVAILABLE EXCEPT A WEB
GRAPHIC ON THE WAY.

THE WATER VAPOR IS IMPRESSIVE WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE AGAIN TOMORROW AND MUCH MORE OFF SHORE YET TO WORK INLAND
EARLY THIS WEEK...ALL WITH THE FRESH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE AND
GETTING COLDER OVERNIGHT TOMORROW WITH SOME DRYING TO LOWER DEW
POINTS IN BETWEEN IMPULSES. THIS SHOULD BE SOME FEBRUARY WINTER
LIKE WE HAVEN/T SEEN IN A WHILE.

[ams30721us]

Next weekend looks to be gone too. Bummer.

 

Meanwhile...00z Euro brings across several inches of snow in N TX Friday into Saturday.

[aggiegeog]

Looks like tonight's model runs show .1-1" of frozen QPF for N and NE Texas.

[aggiegeog]

NE Texas is now under a winter storm warning. Discounting the moisture lacking GFS things could get rough around here especially if this turns out to be a convective event.

[ams30721us]

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA

442 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING

FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST

ARKANSAS AND MUCH OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA FROM 9 PM TONIGHT UNTIL 6 PM

MONDAY...

...WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

FOR MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM 9 PM TONIGHT UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY...

...WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF

WEST CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA FROM 9 PM TONIGHT UNTIL

6 PM MONDAY...

.PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS MOST OF THE

FOUR STATE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING AS

VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL

BELOW FREEZING.

ARZ070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-

149>151-230000-

/O.UPG.KSHV.WS.A.0002.150223T0300Z-150224T0000Z/

/O.NEW.KSHV.WS.W.0002.150223T0300Z-150224T0000Z/

MILLER-LAFAYETTE-COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-

CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-

OUACHITA-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-

SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...

EL DORADO...SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MINDEN...HOMER...RUSTON...

FARMERVILLE...MANSFIELD...COUSHATTA...BIENVILLE...JONESBORO...

MONROE...CLARKSVILLE...MT VERNON...MT PLEASANT...PITTSBURG...

DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA...QUITMAN...GILMER...JEFFERSON...TYLER...

LONGVIEW...MARSHALL...RUSK...HENDERSON...CARTHAGE

442 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM

CST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WARNING FOR A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SOME

SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST

MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* EVENT...A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL TRANSITION

OVER TO SLEET AND SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY

ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS

OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20

CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF

NORTHERN LOUISIANA...RAIN WILL BECOME FREEZING RAIN LATE

TONIGHT...TRANSITIONING OVER TO A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND

SLEET DURING THE DAY MONDAY. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET

ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH

TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS NEAR ONE QUARTER OF AN

INCH EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

* TIMING...WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NORTHEAST

TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS

LATE THIS EVENING...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY

MONDAY. FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS

AND THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA...WINTER

PRECIPITATION MAY WAIT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...CONTINUING

THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

* IMPACT...ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET...SNOW...AND ICE MAY CAUSE

TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ON AREA ROADWAYS PARTICULARLY ON BRIDGES AND

OVERPASSES. ICE ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF

MORE MAY CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AS POWER LINES AND TREES

BECOME LADEN WITH ICE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SLEET...AND

ICE ARE EXPECTED...MAKING TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES IN THE WARNING AREA WILL BE VERY

HAZARDOUS...AND POSSIBLY IMPASSIBLE. DO NOT TRAVEL UNLESS IT IS

AN EMERGENCY.

 

[bubba hotep]

It looks like the Euro and the NAM are shifting the highest  winter weather impacts north towards the Red River or southern Oklahoma. DFW may see the majority of its precipitation with temps above freezing. It looks like DFW could get out of this with just some freezing drizzle and light sleet accumulation with minimal travel impacts.  

[bubba hotep]

Pretty cool pic from FWD of them working this event:

 

[vwgrrc]

It looks like the Euro and the NAM are shifting the highest  winter weather impacts north towards the Red River or southern Oklahoma. DFW may see the majority of its precipitation with temps above freezing. It looks like DFW could get out of this with just some freezing drizzle and light sleet accumulation with minimal travel impacts.  

Oh no...

 

Why NWS was still pretty aggressive with the update at 0746AM

[bubba hotep]

Oh no...

NWS was still pretty aggressive with the WSW updated at 0746AM

They are the experts and I would go with what they say. I was just making an observation regarding the Euro and NAM. It will be interesting to see what the 12z Euro & GFS show. I still think anyoanyone the warning area could get it good depending on how things play out over the next 48 hours.

[vwgrrc]

[bubba hotep]

Looks like 12z GFS might be a tad south and juicer with the second impulse.

ETA: maybe not

[jhamps10]

just saw a pic from Wichita Falls that the sleet was starting to mix with the rain already up there

[bubba hotep]

just saw a pic from Wichita Falls that the sleet was starting to mix with the rain already up there

Was wondering if that could happen with those storms up there.

[vwgrrc]

just saw a pic from Wichita Falls that the sleet was starting to mix with the rain already up there

is it earlier than anticipated?

[cheese007]

It looks like the Euro and the NAM are shifting the highest  winter weather impacts north towards the Red River or southern Oklahoma. DFW may see the majority of its precipitation with temps above freezing. It looks like DFW could get out of this with just some freezing drizzle and light sleet accumulation with minimal travel impacts.  

If that ends up being the case it would be the biggest disappointment thus far in a season already chock full of them

[jhamps10]

if DFW gets just freezing drizzle, if I was in tv weather I'd be hitting the road out of town lol, that would be a horrible disappointment and frankly the cry wolf factor would make people think when we DO get a real winter storm to do nothing.... 

[vwgrrc]

If that ends up being the case it would be the biggest disappointment thus far in a season already chock full of them

12z GFS has everything still there. However, at this range, it's hard to change significantly.