Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 6

[DFWWeather]

WOW, I thought I couldn't see a Dec 2013 repeat for quiet a long long time. But I remember that event was mainly freezing rain, which cause massive power outrages. Sleet shouldn't be too bad unless it's really heavy!

 

The Dec 2013 event was predominately sleet not freezing rain for the majority of DFW. 2 inches of sleet accumulated into solid ice all over the roads at DFW Airport and Arlington. The heaviest icing was along the H85 front where convective bands of heavy sleet developed which was bisecting the Metroplex. Sleet storms like that happened frequently in the 70s and 80s here. There was a bad one in January 1988 and another one the following year in February 1989. Of course, don't forget the February 23/24 event of 2003.

 

This coming event certainly starting to look interesting! Wonder if the 0z ECMWF will trend colder now that most other guidance is doing so.

[vwgrrc]

The Dec 2013 event was predominately sleet not freezing rain for the majority of DFW. 2 inches of sleet accumulated into solid ice all over the roads at DFW Airport and Arlington. The heaviest icing was along the H85 front where convective bands of heavy sleet developed which was bisecting the Metroplex.

 

This coming event certainly starting to look interesting! Wonder if the 0z ECMWF will trend colder now that most other guidance is doing so.

What do you think there? comparing to Dec 13.

[DFWWeather]

What do you think there? comparing to Dec 13.

 

Honestly, not sure yet. I'm still leary about temps. They really have to get down into the 20s for this to workout. Even if we just hang in around 29°F the roadways may just stay slushy because the ground has been so warm. If the warm nose aloft increases and the predominate phase of precip is freezing rain and its heavy enough, it could potentially warm surface temps. If this truly is all sleet then we probably have it made and will be entombed in ice. Where ever convective bands setup of sleet, someone will get more than average amounts listed above.

[aggiegeog]

At the least I see this as March 2 2014. We got 2 inches of sleet with some pretty strong thunderstorms.

[bubba hotep]

FWD expanded the Winter Storm Watch area overnight and I would guess Warnings will fly at some point later today or tomorrow.  The 00z Euro came in colder at the surface and the warm nose was not as deep across the DFW area but precipitation amounts didn't appear to change significantly across north Texas.  It really wouldn't take much more cooling at all for the northern counties to transition to snow at some point.  

[vwgrrc]

6z backed down quite a bit. Bus it's 6z...

[bubba hotep]

6z backed down quite a bit. Bus it's 6z...

 

06z what? The 06z NAM looks wetter and the GFS looks about the same as 00z.  The only thing I really see are some timing fluctuations, which is to be expected given the type of setup.  The models are going to struggle with the timing and strength of the individual impulses that kick out.  There is a pretty good consensus that DFW is looking at 0.50"+ with amounts increasing as you head E & NE, how much falls as frozen is the big question. 

 

ETA: Updated FWD graphic 

 

[Srain]

We are going to have to watch the surface temperatures very carefully Monday afternoon into early Tuesday across the Hill Country and along and N of the I-10 Corridor. Although the qpf may be light and the warm nose does exist, it only takes a light glaze of ice to create havoc on our elevated flyovers along the I-35 and I-10 Corridors. Areas N of DT Houston along US 290, The N Belt, I-45 N, Hardy Toll Road and East Tex Freeway (US 59) may not be out of the woods for some light icing as we wake up Tuesday morning.

 

 

 

[bubba hotep]

It will be interesting to watch the up stream stations today for over performing cold. Maybe we can even bust on the cool side today here in north Texas? Every degree matters!

ETA: we are still dropping this morning, down to 47

[NTXYankee]

Commence grocery store chaos already, lol.

[bubba hotep]

Commence grocery store chaos already, lol.

Buy all the milk and bread you can!!!!

[jhamps10]

Buy all the milk and bread you can!!!!

Haha I was afraid the milk and bread rush would have already taken place... And dang it I was out of milk and bread too... Oh well maybe someone will have a half gallon this afternoon..

To change topics, wasn't this morning supposed to be sunny in dfw??? Instead were socked in with clouds and while I haven't been outside in an hour it looks like from people walking that it is starting to get colder... Wondering if we bust cold today and that fwd expanded the watch overnight makes me start to think that this might actually happen this time lol

[bubba hotep]

Haha I was afraid the milk and bread rush would have already taken place... And dang it I was out of milk and bread too... Oh well maybe someone will have a half gallon this afternoon..

To change topics, wasn't this morning supposed to be sunny in dfw??? Instead were socked in with clouds and while I haven't been outside in an hour it looks like from people walking that it is starting to get colder... Wondering if we bust cold today and that fwd expanded the watch overnight makes me start to think that this might actually happen this time lol

Things are supposed to clear out later today with DFW rebounding to the mid-60s, temp fell to 49 at DFW during the last hour so it better get to warming soon.

[Roy]

Starting to look interesting. Regardless of what happens, nice to finally have something to be watching. But, looks like this time something is going to happen. How much sleet is the question.

[Srain]

The 12Z GFS is precariously close to a freezing rain event across Central and portions of SE Texas mainly N of I-10 and likely somewhere between the N Belt/US 290 and HWY 105 beginning Monday afternoon/evening into the overnight hours of early Tuesday depending on where the freezing line sets up. 2 meter temperatures are worrisome as they are near 32 to 33 degrees, if the GFS is correct. For our neighbors across the Dallas/Ft Worth area, it appears Winter Storm Warning may be needed later today and there is some potential that Winter Weather Advisories and possibly Winter Storm Watches could be hoisted across portions of the Hill Country and may include the New Braunfels to Austin areas.

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1034 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2015

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING AND IS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR SULPHUR SPRINGS TO
WACO TO LAMPASAS. TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER
BEHIND THIS INITIAL COLD FRONT BUT MUCH COLDER AIR IS NOW POURING
INTO THE UPPER PLAINS AND IS ON TARGET TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

 

IN THE MEANTIME...ONLY A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE FAR EASTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING
AND CLEARING BEHIND THIS FRONT AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF
THIS IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. IF THIS OCCURS...THERE COULD
BE SOME SLIGHT WARMUP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THINK SKIES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THOUGH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
AND 50S.

 

CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL WINTER STORM...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS VERY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF PRIMARILY SLEET ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...FREEZING RAIN. SOME
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THIS
SYSTEM IS NOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE MODELED BY SOME HIGHER RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE AND WE WILL ASSESS THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PORTIONS
OF THE WATCH AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

DUNN

[bubba hotep]

Overall, not seeing any major changes w/ the 12z GFS but the NAM continues to come in wetter with each run.  They are split on the precipitation placement with the NAM being more north.  Subtle changes in the timing and strength of the pieces of energy that kick out, this probably comes down to mesoscale features that won't be resolved until much closer to go time. 

[bubba hotep]

DFW still reporting 49 at noon, mid 60s might be stretching it today

[Srain]

A quick update on the late next week storm system expected Thursday night into Saturday for SE Texas. The GFS has trended much colder and suggest once again p-type issue may well be a problem. The latest MEX text data suggest freezing rain as far S as Hobby may be an issue, so our weather week ahead will be filled with additional issues to monitor beyond Sunday, Monday night into early Tuesday.

[jm1220]

Yikes, this is starting to look alarming for this area. I'm definitely no fan of freezing rain, that's for sure. Driving in Austin's treacherous enough without ice on the roads. 

[bubba hotep]

A quick update on the late next week storm system expected Thursday night into Saturday for SE Texas. The GFS has trended much colder and suggest once again p-type issue may well be a problem. The latest MEX text data suggest freezing rain as far S as Hobby may be an issue, so our weather week ahead will be filled with additional issues to monitor beyond Sunday, Monday night into early Tuesday.

 

That system has so much potential and could be the "big" one for this winter.  The -EPO has been money the last two years and should deliver the cold, we just need the timing to workout. 

[vwgrrc]

That system has so much potential and could be the "big" one for this winter. The -EPO has been money the last two years and should deliver the cold, we just need the timing to workout.

Even bigger than the Monday one?

[Srain]

Afternoon briefing from Jeff:

 

Winter Storm heading for TX early next week….possible second winter storm late next week.

 

Ingredients appear to be coming together to produce a round of winter precipitation across a large part of TX and portions of SE TX Monday and Tuesday. Overnight model guidance has not changed much with respect to the expected surface temperatures (thus there has been no real cooling or warming trend on the model output). Confidence has increased however that the surface freezing line will in fact push into SE TX late Monday afternoon and early evening be driven by cold air advection across what by that time will be an ice/sleet covered north TX. Models also continue to show a very significant warm nose (layer of warm air) a few thousand feet above the surface with the latest NAM model showing temperatures pushing 50 degrees atop the very cold surface layer…this suggests rain drops will be falling to the surface with a “warm” temperature…likely well above freezing and will have to cool to the surface temperature over time. The NAM also now shows the surface freezing line progressing as far south as I-10 Tuesday morning…for now will discount this model as a colder outlier in favor of the slightly warmer GFS and ECMWF models.  

 

There will be little to no room for evaporative cooling as the air mass will saturate tomorrow behind the front and remain saturated through the period…this leaves only cold air advection to cool the surface temperature to freezing or below. Best chances of surface temperatures falling to freezing Monday evening will be along and north of a line from College Station to Conroe to Cleveland and this will support a change of light rain/drizzle to freezing light rain/freezing drizzle. QPF amounts are forecasted in the .05 to .10 of an inch range within the sub-freezing air mass suggesting some ice accumulation on elevated surfaces is possible. Current QPF amounts suggest a Winter Weather Advisory or Winter Storm Watch may be needed for the counties of: Burleson, Madison, Walker, Trinity, Polk, and San Jacinto on Sunday with the critical time period being Monday evening after 600pm through about 1000am Tuesday morning.

 

South of a College Station to Conroe to Cleveland line surface temperatures are still expected to remain above freezing suggesting no change to freezing rain or ice accumulation. Would not at this point rule out any southward shift in the freezing line over the next 48 hours, but there is no strong indication at this moment that freezing rain/drizzle would impact Harris County or the metro Houston area. Lows Tuesday morning across Harris County will likely range from 33-35 degrees.

 

Accumulations:

Ice accumulation will be possible north of a line from College Station to Conroe to Cleveland Monday night and Tuesday morning and most likely north of a line from Caldwell to Huntsville to Livingston where surface temperatures will likely be closer to 30. Tough call on accumulations given the very warm temperatures aloft and only 30-32 at the surface. Elevated surfaces such as trees and power lines will likely see some accumulations with bridges and overpasses a little tougher call. General thinking right now is less than .10 of ice accumulation, but a degree or two colder could make for better accumulation potential especially on the elevated bridges and overpasses. No ice accumulation is currently expected in Harris County.

 

As with all winter weather events there is a high degree of uncertainty and with this event in particular much depends on 1-2 degrees making a big difference between ice and no ice. No other P-type (sleet or snow) is expected across SE TX with the impressive warm layer aloft.  

 

Late Next Week:

Another strong arctic cold front looks to cross the area late Thursday and then a storm system approaches from the west Friday/Saturday with the cold air in place. Could once again be dealing to P-type concerns across a large part of TX including portions of SE TX next Friday evening into Saturday.

 

Will likely see winter weather products issued Sunday for portions of the area as well as surrounding portions of C and N TX to match with the Winter Storm Watch already issued for a large portion of N TX. Travel to N TX is strongly discouraged after noon on Sunday as ice and sleet begin to accumulate over that portion of the state. Little to no improve to surface travel is expected over N TX until after noon on Tuesday resulting in a prolonged period of impact.

 

[Srain]

FWD will be Upgrading a portion of the Watch area to a WSW shortly.

[bubba hotep]

FWD will be Upgrading a portion of the Watch area to a WSW shortly.

I'm guessing Tarrant, Dallas, Rockwall county and north?

[ams30721us]

SHV issues a Winter Storm Watch...including even Deep East Texas.

 

 

 

RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
402 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE AREA
FROM 9 PM CST SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST 6 PM CST MONDAY...

.PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS MOST OF THE
FOUR STATE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING AS
VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL
BELOW FREEZING.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-221015-
/O.NEW.KSHV.WS.A.0002.150223T0300Z-150224T0000Z/
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...
PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...EL DORADO...
SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MINDEN...HOMER...RUSTON...
FARMERVILLE...MANSFIELD...COUSHATTA...BIENVILLE...JONESBORO...
MONROE...MANY...NATCHITOCHES...WINNFIELD...COLFAX...COLUMBIA...
JENA...IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...MT VERNON...MT PLEASANT...
PITTSBURG...DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA...QUITMAN...GILMER...
JEFFERSON...TYLER...LONGVIEW...MARSHALL...RUSK...HENDERSON...
CARTHAGE...NACOGDOCHES...CENTER...LUFKIN...SAN AUGUSTINE...
HEMPHILL
402 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* EVENT...A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 30 AND A MIX OF MAINLY SLEET WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN INTERSTATE 30 AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
JACKSONVILLE TEXAS TO FLORIEN LOUISIANA. THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE AS HIGH AS TWO
INCHES ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30. FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND ONE
QUARTER OF INCH SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 30.

* TIMING...WINTRY PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY EVENING NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 30 AND WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.

* IMPACT...ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET...SNOW...AND ICE MAY CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ON AREA ROADWAYS PARTICULARLY ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES. ICE ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE ONE TENTH OF AN INCH MAY
CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AS POWER LINES AND TREES BECOME
LADEN WITH ICE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

[jhamps10]

I'm guessing Tarrant, Dallas, Rockwall county and north?

 

Dallas, Johnson, Hood, Erath, Comanche and north does NOT include Rockwall... at least for now lol

 

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

358 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015

TXZ093-104-118-119-129>133-141-220600-

/O.UPG.KFWD.WS.A.0001.150223T0000Z-150224T0000Z/

/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.W.0001.150223T0000Z-150224T0000Z/

GRAYSON-COLLIN-TARRANT-DALLAS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-

JOHNSON-COMANCHE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHERMAN...DENISON...PLANO...

FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...CISCO...EASTLAND...RANGER...

GORMAN...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...OAK TRAIL SHORES...

GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...COMANCHE...DE LEON

358 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM CST

MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WARNING FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT

FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM CST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO

LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...MAINLY SLEET WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1/2 INCH WITH LOCALLY

HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 1 INCH THROUGH MONDAY. UP TO 1/10 OF AN INCH

OF ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO BELOW FREEZING LATE SUNDAY EVENING AND

INTO THE UPPER 20S SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN IN

THE 20S.

* MAIN IMPACT...SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS

ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. BRIDGES ARE LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE ICE

AND SLEET FIRST WITH MAIN ROADS ALSO ACCUMLATING SLEET DURING

THIS TIME.

* OTHER IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM UP ABOVE

FREEZING ON MONDAY. ANY ACCUMULATED SLEET OR ICE WILL LIKELY

REMAIN ON AREA ROADS WELL AFTER PRECIPITATION ENDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ACCUMULATION OF SLEET AND ICE ON ROADWAYS...BRIDGES AND

OVERPASSES WILL MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION

IF TRAVEL IS NECESSARY.

&&

$

[bubba hotep]

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see the warning extended east north of I-30 at some point.  Just took at quick glance at the 18z NAM/GFS and not much change with the GFS but the NAM really cut back precipitation for all of NE Texas with the bigger hit being up in Oklahoma.  The 00z models will be rolling before I'll have time to really look at things, so I'll just toss the 18z NAM 

[vwgrrc]

Steve Macaulay said the freezing line should push thru 3 hours earlier than most models indicate

[bubba hotep]

Steve Macaulay said the freezing line should push thru 3 hours earlier than most models indicate

That could be a big deal, especially since most models have about half the qpf before we drop below freezing.

[vwgrrc]

That could be a big deal, especially since most models have about half the qpf before we drop below freezing.

But he also suggests the precip should pause in the evening hours and resumes early monday morning. If that's the case, the timing of the cold front shouldn't make differences.