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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 6

Portastorm

By Portastorm,
in Central/Western States

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

The 6z and 18z runs of the GFS are really throw aways as there is no ensemble support behind them. In fact, I never look at those runs. The only runs that truly matter are the 0z and 12z. So the other two runs are only best used in some short range situations imho.

 

The 12z ECMWF has some fun for DFW this weekend. However, it has been crappy all winter long in that time range, so take what you want out of that.

 

I look at all the runs, easy way to veg out on the train in the mornings and afternoons.  I don't think any given run is more accurate than the next, the initial conditions data is constantly changing.  There is a pretty big spread in the ensembles for next weekend and that is getting smoothed out in the mean. Cluster analysis is going to be the most useful way to use the ensembles until later in the week.

 

The 12z Euro has a crazy H5 evolution, no way that is accurate at D7 :lol:  It will be interesting to see which way the models trend this week, lots of thrashing around is a lock!   

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Light IP mixed with -RN in NW Harris County ATT. The CPC Day 8+ Analogs aren't looking particularly warm either... 

 

attachicon.gif02162015 CPC Day 8+ Analogs 610analog_off.gif

 

attachicon.gif02162015 CPC Day 6 to 10 Temps 610temp_new.gif

 

attachicon.gif10222015 CPC Precip 814prcp_new.gif

 

This winter has blown but give me below normal temps and above normal precipitation in February and something just might work out in our favor. 

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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

Morning briefing from Jeff:

 

Public reports of light sleet and snow flurries across Grimes, Montgomery, and NW Harris Counties since about 700am this morning.

 

Radar shows increasing light activity approaching from Colorado and Austin Counties currently and some of this may be reaching the ground in the form of light sleet and very light snow. Surface temperatures range from 32 at College Station to 33 at Conroe to 36 at Sugar Land with most of the area above freezing. This should result in any sleet or snow melting on contact with the ground with no impacts expected.

 

Precipitation should end by late morning with temperatures slowly warming into the 40’s.

 

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Roy

Roy

Posted
Posted

At this point, not looking at the models anymore beyond an occasional check since every promising run all year has proven false. If we get snow, great. Otherwise, hope we have a nasty severe weather season. Excited to be out of Midland to where hopefully will get more of that instead of being drylined all the time. But, with my luck, this will be the slowest severe weather season and an incredibly dry spring, exacerbating the drought. 

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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

Update from Jeff:

 

Band of sleet and light snow moving into the US 59 corridor. Law enforcement and public reports light snow along US 290 and SH 249 in the Tomball and Cypress area and along I-10 in Katy and Fulshear.

 

Radar shows higher reflectivity which is likely slightly heavier sleet/snow over NW Fort Bend County moving toward Sugar Land and SW Harris County.

 

Band of precipitation should exit SE TX in the next 2-3 hours, but until then light sleet and snow is possible across the region…no accumulation is expected with temperatures at or above freezing and warm ground.  

 

 

 

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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

The afternoon Update from the Climate Prediction Center continues to advertise well below normal temperature and slightly above to above normal precipitation in their Day 6 to 10 Forecast. Some of the analog dates are very impressive for our Region. The WPC Day 3 to 7 surface charts suggest the first in a series of cold fronts arrives Sunday morning. The fly in the ointment continues to be what happens to our West as a deep trough and upper level storm develops across the Great Basin. This upper low and positive tilted cold upper trough may bring some significant snow across portions of the Southern Rockies (Colorado/New Mexico) that has been lacking a bit lately. It does appear there may be a second storm system dropping S from Central/Western Canada into the Great Basin around the middle of next week bringing an additional surge of very cold air across the Inter Mountain West and Plains into Texas and Louisiana.

 

 

 

 

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wxmx

wxmx

Posted
Posted

Yes, it appears that it will be two cold waves, with some s/w action as well. By now, I'm almost out of the game, but for the rest of the region there's good potential. 

 

This winter was full of unfulfilled potential, it seems. Let's see if it proves me wrong :)

 

In the longer range (> 10 days), it appears that the Aleutian low will give way to a ridge...but may not be for long, as there's a chance that said ridge migrates to near AK.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
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Looks like North Texas is getting some rain this afternoon and that should move into NE TX before dissipating this evening. Next week is looking interesting, but it is too far out to get into details.

 

Pretty surprising, very spring like with a nice little storm rushing through this evening.  

 

Lots of model thrashing around with pretty much every possible solution offered up b/w the many runs today.  I'm guessing this will continue with no blocking in sight and all the crazy northern energy.  

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

12z GFs goes all in with single digits at DFW and near zero temps for the far NE burbs. And that is without significant snow pack, if we could get snow then sub zero could be a possibility #FantasyLand :lol:

 

If it verifies, that could challenge some all time temperature departures since it would be towards the end of February.  The record of course is the February outbreak in 1899 with a daily average of 2 degrees, 47 degrees below normal.  I believe the next few are in the -36 to -40 range (December 1989/1983, January 1962, March 1948).  The average temp for late February is 53 degrees.  

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DFWWeather

DFWWeather

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If it verifies, that could challenge some all time temperature departures since it would be towards the end of February.  The record of course is the February outbreak in 1899 with a daily average of 2 degrees, 47 degrees below normal.  I believe the next few are in the -36 to -40 range (December 1989/1983, January 1962, March 1948).  The average temp for late February is 53 degrees.  

 

Which it won't verify. It has been a good 18 years since the last time DFW has hit the single digits (longest stretch in our history), and I'm beginning to seriously doubt if we ever will again. This should occur every 4 years based on climatology. Though the AMO did plummet this year, so if anything, that could be the catalyst to get it that low, but so late in the year? It has never been in the single digits past February 18th here. That would be some astounding record if it were to occur that late, though, we have been as cold as 10°F on the 3rd of March before (so, there is a bit of precedence here for lower than 15°F). I wouldn't expect anything close to that though. The records for the end of February are in the upper teens to around 20ish. Urban heat island effect may negate us ever seeing a low like February 12, 1899 ever again.

 

As stated before, the models in that time frame have just been pure garbage this winter.

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vwgrrc

vwgrrc

Posted
Posted

Well this is shocking... the Euro & EPS have a nice system for north Texas in the 8 - 10 day range. The joke would be funny but it's pretty worn out at this point! Also, maybe a small event Sunday or Monday

Yes next Fri/Sat look snowy for dfw.

 

But even that, the trend is it's shifting north/east at 12z.

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
Posted

Not liking how far north the West Coast low is looking to set up. How the models are looking right now we will be pretty dry for the early part of next week and when it comes out it will likely go too far north. Though maybe we can still get a trough to dig in late in the week to bring in more cold and moisture.

 

Edit: Well the 18Z sure digs the trough. It shows 2+ inches of precip with temps below freezing the entire time late next week over NE TX.

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vwgrrc

vwgrrc

Posted
Posted

Not liking how far north the West Coast low is looking to set up. How the models are looking right now we will be pretty dry for the early part of next week and when it comes out it will likely go too far north. Though maybe we can still get a trough to dig in late in the week to bring in more cold and moisture.

Edit: Well the 18Z sure digs the trough. It shows 2+ inches of precip with temps below freezing the entire time late next week over NE TX.

Guess that not includes dfw. But Texarkana in the game.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Not liking how far north the West Coast low is looking to set up. How the models are looking right now we will be pretty dry for the early part of next week and when it comes out it will likely go too far north. Though maybe we can still get a trough to dig in late in the week to bring in more cold and moisture.

Edit: Well the 18Z sure digs the trough. It shows 2+ inches of precip with temps below freezing the entire time late next week over NE TX.

GFS going buck wild today! No one from Collin County to Texarkana could complain about this winter if either the 12z or 18z verified :lol: At this point, I can't put stock in any solution given the pattern but that timeframe is being highlighted by both the Euro and GFS at this point.

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vwgrrc

vwgrrc

Posted
Posted

GFS going buck wild today! No one from Collin County to Texarkana could complain about this winter if either the 12z or 18z verified :lol: At this point, I can't put stock in any solution given the pattern but that timeframe is being highlighted by both the Euro and GFS at this point.

If both models show 2 runs consistently, that's likely to be legit. Only problem is too far out... So that still tells nothing!

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