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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 6

Portastorm

By Portastorm,
in Central/Western States

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vwgrrc

vwgrrc

Posted
Posted

wow. But is it reliable at this range?

00z NAM

 

Some of this may be a mix of frz.rain/sleet/snow...so don't take numbers literally. But...

 

It's all about the second wave folks....if 18z GFS and new 00z Euro is accurate with it mon pm into Tuesday. We could see a significant winter event across northern areas. If the second wave is suppressed aka first wave stronger and dominate then just minor icing mainly north.

namconus_asnow_scus_29.png

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

I think I am suffering from Ji syndrome this winter.

Cavanaugh said in the AFD that the time between short waves would be small so moisture/subsidence might be at issue. He also added all of this is likely to change.

This time 5 years ago we still had 10" on the ground from the greatest snowstorm in DFWs history.

 

:lol: I reminder getting trolled by Ji when I first joined the old site. 

 

I'm actually pretty okay with the 00z GFS at the 500mb level, even if the snow maps aren't as "pretty" as previous runs.  Now to see if we can get the Euro to join the party. 

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

Nail in coffin...

Yeah, it's pretty bad. The ridging out west has been flatter and wider than last year. We can't get the cold in. Last year was a rarity: a productive winter with poor AO/NAO. This year the cold outbreaks are few and far between. Our best shot was probably early January.

From a teleconnections standpoint, it is looking very bleak. Who'd a thunk a niño would be so dry?

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
Posted

What a strange set up for today. Front coming in from the NE and a surface low from the SW. Looks like decent rain for North Texas today. I think icing will stay north of Texas tonight given the cold being blocked by the mountains over AR. The models overnight want to lose the precip as it moves into North Texas Tuesday morning, but as we have seen usually with strong forcing it will continue further east than modeled so light snow is still very possible over North and maybe NE Texas before noon on Tuesday. We could see mid to upper 20s Wednesday morning over NE Texas.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

I can't complain about there being a chance, but I will hold off any excitement until late in the week.

 

The Pacific/teleconnections have hinted that we should see a westward expansion of the cold and this has been supported by the ensembles for a bit now.  Maybe it finally happens this time and we will have cold air in place for that system or maybe persistence wins out and we get a glancing blow of cold with rain.  

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
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Current temp is around 50 and looks like the backdoor front is through here. There may be a bit of warming this afternoon though I doubt much with clouds cover likely continuing through the day. The Arctic front should pass through tonight bringing a shot at freezing rain to far NE TX. As the precip ends tomorrow morning there could be a period of light sleet across northern Texas as the deeper cold rushes in. Tomorrow afternoon should stay dry for most. The main low reaches us tomorrow night and temps look good for snow though the models are now showing pretty dry air at the mid levels limiting things to just flurries without this layer of dry air we could get a decent snow.

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
Posted

Both the 00z NAM and GFS look like they want to drag some freezing rain or sleet across DFW as the backside of the precipitation moves through. The HRRR seems to be picking up on this as well.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_3.png

nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_4.png

I have not looked at the models since this morning, but I did see that there was a chance of this happening.
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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
Posted

The front continues to race ahead of what the models are showing. There is a band of thunderstorms moving through western North Texas with temps below freezing in the area so there could be some surprises. This is supposed to weaken ad it heads east so we will see. The freeze line is already not far west of Fort Worth. Areas west of I-35 in DFW are forecasted to have rain and a low of 38, it is 35 or lower in these locations already with the freeze line racing east. These areas could see some accumulation of ice by daybreak which would wreak havoc on the morning commute at least on bridges. This will have to be watched closely. Yesterday models showed 60s at this time in DFW.

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
Posted

The front continues to race ahead of what the models are showing. There is a band of thunderstorms moving through western North Texas with temps below freezing in the area so there could be some surprises. This is supposed to weaken as it heads east so we will see. The freeze line is already not far west of Fort Worth. Areas west of I-35 in DFW are forecasted to have rain and a low of 38, it is 35 or lower in these locations already with the freeze line racing east. These areas could see some accumulation of ice by daybreak which would wreak havoc on the morning commute at least on bridges. This will have to be watched closely. Yesterday models showed 60s at this time in DFW.

I am a bit surprised FWD did not even give DFW a mention as far as having a chance at icing With temps right around freezing and rain falling.
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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

Morning briefing from Jeff:

 

Impressive cold front moving across TX this morning.

 

700am temperatures ranged from 67 at La Grange to 46 at Giddings and 35 at Waco. Frontal passage will feature a solid 20 degree temperature drop. Radar data clearly shows the front nearly College Station and will be reaching the Houston metro area by 1100am to noon and off the coast by mid afternoon. Temperatures will rapidly fall into the 40’s behind the front and into the 30’s by late afternoon with strong north winds.

 

A line of showers is likely with the front as strong frontal lift encounters deeper moisture over SE TX. Not expecting much more than .25-.50 of an inch of rainfall. Showers and drizzle will linger into the overnight hours ahead of the main trough axis expected to cross the area early Tuesday. Again the main impact will be the significant temperature change.

 

Strong cold air advection and very cold upstream temperatures support lowering lows tonight a few degrees below guidance which may put the area from College Station to Huntsville near freezing. Could continue to see some light rain and drizzle overnight across the area and with temperatures up north falling to near freezing will need to keep an eye out for any minor impacts. Current thinking is that drizzle will be light and temperatures just near freezing…and given the warm ground from late do not think much if any impacts.

 

Clearing late Tuesday after a cold mid February day with highs in the 40’s. Lows Wednesday morning may fall to near freezing northeast of a line from College Station to Liberty.

 

Warming trend begins late Wednesday as southerly winds return and temperatures rebound into the 60’s on Thursday and 70’s Friday into the weekend. Moisture slowly increases Friday-Sunday with slight rain chances mainly for streamer showers moving inland from the Gulf of Mexico.

 

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

06z GFS is borderline a nasty ice storm for Dallas next Sunday night into Monday with temps dropping into the 20's and about 0.40" qpf with temps below freezing. This is the same time frame that the 2/15 00z Euro had frozen precipitation across DFW. There appears to be pretty good agreement that a broad +tilt trough should evolve over the central/western US with a messy batch of energy rotating around. It looks like we will once again be at the mercy of the strength and timing of the ejecting S/Ws. I guess it will be another week of the models trolling us...

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vwgrrc

vwgrrc

Posted
Posted

06z GFS is borderline a nasty ice storm for Dallas next Sunday night into Monday with temps dropping into the 20's and about 0.40" qpf with temps below freezing. This is the same time frame that the 2/15 00z Euro had frozen precipitation across DFW. There appears to be pretty good agreement that a broad +tilt trough should evolve over the central/western US with a messy batch of energy rotating around. It looks like we will once again be at the mercy of the strength and timing of the ejecting S/Ws. I guess it will be another week of the models trolling us...

It's really too much with this winter. That system look soild at this time. So I am wondering how it gonna end up with us. I guess it gonna shift east... Lol

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

It's really too much with this winter. That system look soild at this time. So I am wondering how it gonna end up with us. I guess it gonna shift east... Lol

Nothing looks solid at this point, I just highlighted two potential solutions. It is another messy look with energy in the southwest kicking out at different times each model run. I suspect we will see a lot of run-to-run variability but it will make for another interesting week of model watching.

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vwgrrc

vwgrrc

Posted
Posted

Nothing looks solid at this point, I just highlighted two potential solutions. It is another messy look with energy in the southwest kicking out at different times each model run. I suspect we will see a lot of run-to-run variability but it will make for another interesting week of model watching.

Yeah. 6z GFS shows a catastrophic ice storm for n TX while 12z punt everything. Sure It gonna be quite different run to run!

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DFWWeather

DFWWeather

Posted
Posted

Yeah. 6z GFS shows a catastrophic ice storm for n TX while 12z punt everything. Sure It gonna be quite different run to run!

 

The 6z and 18z runs of the GFS are really throw aways as there is no ensemble support behind them. In fact, I never look at those runs. The only runs that truly matter are the 0z and 12z. So the other two runs are only best used in some short range situations imho.

 

The 12z ECMWF has some fun for DFW this weekend. However, it has been crappy all winter long in that time range, so take what you want out of that.

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