bubba hotep Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 18z GFS is a train wreck for Texas... One trend that seems to be common across the models today is a slow eastward expansion of the western ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 What? Y'all aren't excited for 33 degrees and rain like with every other system this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 18z GFS looks like it never gets DFW below freezing at the surface and cuts precipitation back to less than a 1/2 inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 18z GFS looks like it never gets DFW below freezing at the surface and cuts precipitation back to less than a 1/2 inch Not surprised at all for this winter after 4 cold rain events. No reason to believe 5th event not to come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 ^Lucy snatches away the football again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The 0z GFS seems to drag cold air down via a strong high east of the Rockies when there's some light precip around in central TX. I'm not an expert by any means in TX winter weather events since I'm from the NYC area, but I would think it's at least a light sleet and ZR threat for a while if the light precip can coincide with the pressing surface cold. Something to monitor for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Got to love the 06z GFS... never kicks the Baja low out and just shears it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Got to love the 06z GFS... never kicks the Baja low out and just shears it out The GFS appears to be completely lost right now. The Euro still looks pretty good for some fun times early next week. I am still expecting a couple hard freezes next week preceded by a good shot at some snow although likely pretty light. I am still looking for the possibility of some kind of surface feature developing and completely altering the expected precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The GFS appears to be completely lost right now. The Euro still looks pretty good for some fun times early next week. I am still expecting a couple hard freezes next week preceded by a good shot at some snow although likely pretty light. I am still looking for the possibility of some kind of surface feature developing and completely altering the expected precip. I'm slightly more optimistic after reading the FWD AFD from last night but betting on mesoscale features has been a bust so far this winter. The trends in the models just aren't encouraging with the orientation of the western ridge. The 00z Euro continued the trend of expanding eastward and flattening some, but not as drastic as we saw with systems in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I am ready for April to put me out of my misery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z GFS seems like a step back in the right direction. It actually looked close to being really good, maybe a new trend today? It looks cooler at the surface, especially with the first batch of precipitation but still a real ugly warm nose. However, any backend snow looks to fall with the surface above freezing. Still, an encouraging run ETA: After looking a bit more, it looks like the freezing rain threat is increasing for those north and northeast of DFW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I am ready for April to put me out of my misery. Dry mild weather with no hope of anything! ? At least we can still have our dreams at this point lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z GFS seems like a step back in the right direction. It actually looked close to being really good, maybe a new trend today? It looks cooler at the surface, especially with the first batch of precipitation but still a real ugly warm nose. However, any backend snow looks to fall with the surface above freezing. Still, an encouraging run The problem is what I feared yesterday the trend in the warming at the H85 level so significantly. It was even worse today on both the GFS and ECMWF, now showing H85 temps to be barely below 0°C (from an astounding -13.9°C). Surprisingly the models just can't resolve the effects of the west coast ridging expanding back into Texas deflecting all the cold air to our east. This will be another cold rain event or warm rain event at the rate the H85 temps keep warming on these models. On another note, I don't think I've have ever seen the ECMWF model perform as poorly as it has this year. Were there recent changes to this model I'm not aware of? The GFS has some forgiveness as it was recently upgraded; however, the ECMWF has just been abysmal and its constant flip-flopping is something very uncharacteristic of this model. Anything beyond 3 days out on either of these models is just pure garbage as of late. What is going on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The problem is what I feared yesterday the trend in the warming at the H85 level so significantly. It was even worse today on both the GFS and ECMWF, now showing H85 temps to be barely below 0°C (from an astounding -13.9°C). Surprisingly the models just can't resolve the effects of the west coast ridging expanding back into Texas deflecting all the cold air to our east. This will be another cold rain event or warm rain event at the rate the H85 temps keep warming on these models. On another note, I don't think I've have ever seen the ECMWF model perform as poorly as it has this year. Were there recent changes to this model I'm not aware of? The GFS has some forgiveness as it was recently upgraded; however, the ECMWF has just been abysmal and its constant flip-flopping is something very uncharacteristic of this model. Anything beyond 3 days out on either of these models is just pure garbage as of late. What is going on? Below 850mb it is marginal, but still below freezing, what I find amazing is how deep the moisture is reaching up to 250mb where temps are around -50C. If you assume that the low levels are too warm then we really could have a prolonged light snow event nd even if the low level temps are correct I think it is still a snow forecast with NE TX being the hot spot in Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Below 850mb it is marginal, but still below freezing, what I find amazing is how deep the moisture is reaching up to 250mb where temps are around -50C. If you assume that the low levels are too warm then we really could have a prolonged light snow event nd even if the low level temps are correct I think it is still a snow forecast with NE TX being the hot spot in Texas. 12z ECMWF continues warming. Does have small window for very light snow or drizzle to reach the ground, as critical thicknesses do dip to 532dm, but surface temps are 34°F to 36°F at DFW with any frozen precip melting on impact and the column begins drying at this point. This will be a cold rain event for the most part. Temperatures continue to warm with every run. It continues with its day 10 garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z ECMWF continues warming. Does have small window for very light snow or drizzle to reach the ground, as critical thicknesses do dip to 532dm, but surface temps are 34°F to 36°F at DFW with any frozen precip melting on impact and the column begins drying at this point. This will be a cold rain event for the most part. Temperatures continue to warm with every run. It continues with its day 10 garbage. The 12Z GFS soundings show at least a few hour period of all snow Tuesday morning across NE TX, coverage will depend on how much lift there is. Surface temps look plenty low (30-34) for it to stick to non-road surfaces and that is taking the model verbatim and we all know that surface temps are often colder than modeled. Right now it looks like a general half inch with an isolated 2 inches. Further west in the DFW area I am not sure there will be enough lift for more than flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portastorm Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 Don't get too despondent, you North Texas folks ... the 18z GFS has come to your rescue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm mildly encouraged by the model runs so far today. It would not take too much tweaking over the weekend for something interesting. I agree that NE Texas appears to be in a better spot than us over here in DFW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 A Special Weather Statement in place for dfw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Things are trending how I expected. This is an I-20 and I-30 storm with snow amounts increasing as you go northeast. The nice thing is that it should be all snow with very cold air aloft and no real warm nose though temps near the surface are right around freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks like Cavanaugh wrote up one hell of an AFD, still scrolling to find the end! It should make for good reading, so I'll save it for the train ride home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I will check it out while feeding the baby when I get home. I really am liking seeing the models trending towards what I have expected to be a pretty decent event especially for NE TX though much of Texas could see some snow out of it. Gotta watch the Baja low and the potential for a NW Gulf low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Might be off topic. But Wunderground shows total above freezing for the period. I found WU normally very accurate and consistent in D5. Not sure which model they connecting to... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Don't get too despondent, you North Texas folks ... the 18z GFS has come to your rescue! You could tell that things were trending better by about hour 60 or so and it ended up with better timing and placement of the Baja low and northern stream S/W. Now to see if that was just a blimp of model randomness or if it will be the beginning of a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 While we are waiting on the 00z GFS & Euro here is the Fim9 for y'all to gander at: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Might be off topic. But Wunderground shows total above freezing for the period. I found WU normally very accurate and consistent in D5. Not sure which model they connecting to... Are you talking about the local forecast? I'm not sure what they use but am guessing it is tied to the GFS but maybe they have an house model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 00z NAM Some of this may be a mix of frz.rain/sleet/snow...so don't take numbers literally. But... It's all about the second wave folks....if 18z GFS and new 00z Euro is accurate with it mon pm into Tuesday. We could see a significant winter event across northern areas. If the second wave is suppressed aka first wave stronger and dominate then just minor icing mainly north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 00z NAM Some of this may be a mix of frz.rain/sleet/snow...so don't take numbers literally. But... It's all about the second wave folks....if 18z GFS and new 00z Euro is accurate with it mon pm into Tuesday. We could see a significant winter event across northern areas. If the second wave is suppressed aka first wave stronger and dominate then just minor icing mainly north. We needed a Spoiler Alert! before that Just got the kids down and was sitting down with a beer to check out the NAM. ETA: Oh yeah, much better timing and placement of the players, kind of like the polar opposite of the 06z GFS. The models certainly seem to be trending towards much more favorable interaction between the Baja low and the northern stream S/W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 LOL. It was my best 50 Shades teaser moment. Man... if the other 00z guidance trends to a weaker first wave which allows for this other upper trough to phase with our baja low and produce the second wave then oh boy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I think I am suffering from Ji syndrome this winter. Cavanaugh said in the AFD that the time between short waves would be small so moisture/subsidence might be at issue. He also added all of this is likely to change. This time 5 years ago we still had 10" on the ground from the greatest snowstorm in DFWs history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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