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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 6

Portastorm

By Portastorm,
in Central/Western States

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

Thanks for the pick me up Steve, looks promising for short term drought relief.  And yes, I could use some counseling.  Poor severe season last spring, boring summer, warm September and October, promising November, a disaster of a December followed by a chilly yet unremarkable January and now staring down the barrel of an uneventful February has got me crabby.  The hype made it worse. Should have stuck to my guns on the dubious nature of the winter.   :weenie:    

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

Wonder how much of that drought change is due to El Nino not showing up per the feds? Have had some active southern storms, just been unfortunately rain.

 

Yep.  It's the stability of the -PDO.  Nina events are more common.  Since Feb '07, we've had one nino.  14 out of the 94 monthly trimesters had Nino conditions.  37 had Nina conditions.  Wow.  We need a strong event to shake things up a bit.  I'd sacrifice another winter to get the lakes full again.  Hard to believe that folks in Palo Pinto are weeks away from being out of water.     

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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

Evening briefing from Jeff:

 

After what can only be described as pleasant the last few days…a reminder that it is still winter is upon the region this evening.

 

A cold front will move across the area tonight ushering in a colder air mass compared to the last 4-5 days. High temperatures on Friday will run about 10-15 degrees colder than the mid 70’s today and even colder air will arrive by late Sunday. An upper level storm system off of Baja this evening will meander into NW MX Saturday allowing mid and high level moisture to overrun the cold surface dome…a return to cloudy conditions as early as Friday followed by the onset of light rainfall late Saturday. Rain coverage will increase and intensify on Sunday as a polar frontal boundary approaches from the north and moisture pools ahead of this feature. Amounts are expected to by generally light by our standards or on the order of .25 to .50 of an inch.

 

Polar front pushes offshore Sunday afternoon/evening with strong cold air advection resulting in falling temperatures. Lows will return to the 30’s/40’s Monday with highs only in the low 50’s. A brief break in the rainfall potential for Sunday night into Monday as the polar air mass dries out the low levels, but we will probably not see the mid and high level cloud cover clear completely out. Rain chances return with the ejection of the main upper level low over MX Tuesday/Wednesday of next week, but there is considerable guidance spread on just how fast this system moves toward and across TX. Experience this winter with storms ejecting out of the Baja region has been that the slower solutions have tended to verify best.

 

Overall fairly cool to cold pattern looks to hold into middle February after this brief warm spell as the upper level pattern will support fronts every few days keeping cold air in place east of the Rockies.

 

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Yep.  It's the stability of the -PDO.  Nina events are more common.  Since Feb '07, we've had one nino.  14 out of the 94 monthly trimesters had Nino conditions.  37 had Nina conditions.  Wow.  We need a strong event to shake things up a bit.  I'd sacrifice another winter to get the lakes full again.  Hard to believe that folks in Palo Pinto are weeks away from being out of water.     

 

Yeah, that could also help reset the Atlantic.  

 

The 18z GFS tossed us a bone.  However, it is post 300 hours....   wah wah wah 

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wxmx

wxmx

Posted
Posted

So close, yet so far. Similar setups have brought the epic snowfalls of yesteryear, too bad the cold air won't be cold enough. This event will probably be the wettest winter event in many years around here.

 

My backyard doesn't really get much rain during winter, probably no more than 1.5" for the DJF period on average, and we don't get freezing readings every year. For example, this winter the coldest has been 37F so far. This brings some perspective around the epic 1894 and 1967 events on similar setups.

 

Oh well, no use to whine...hopefully we can get some thunder from this one :).

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
Posted

Wow... 12z Euro says Texas should punt the next 2 weeks unless you can twist your mind into finding a light at the end of the +++AO/EPO tunnel.

It is hard to imagine, but all signs are pointing towards a dry warm start to Feb. That following a warm dry end to January is not a good sign. Plenty of time for things to shift back to winter as the models have been far from consistent this winter. On the bright side we should all get some cooler weather and rain this weekend. I am hoping that next week's storm trends colder and wetter.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

I'm calling it now - 2014/2015 Winter is OVER for North Texas.

 

This is probably a safe bet  :cry:    But I'm always looking for the ray of hope!  So here goes, the forecasted crazy positive AO/NAO/EPO probably won't verify and we could see a relaxation and even return to negative beyond the 12th or so.  However, that basically has us  hanging our winter hopes on the last half of February and that is getting really late in the game for Texas. 

 

Also, could there be a closer in possibility?  The 6z GFS offers up a solution close to something that I have been looking for: a slower ejection of the Baja energy and a bit faster progression of the northern stream energy.  If you slow the Baja energy down a bit more and get that northern stream S/W to crash in then...  :weenie:

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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

That pesky cut off upper low over Baja continues to spin and slowly drop SSE tapping abundant tropical from the Eastern Pacific. Light rain chances should increase over night and may increase slightly in areal coverage as a cold front pushes S across Texas tomorrow. There may be a rumble or two of thunder as the front nears Central and SE Texas into Louisiana.

 

Tuesday into Wednesday may offer some heavier rains and possibly some isolated storms as the upper low nears Coastal Texas and eventually pulls E. Another shot of colder air arrives in the wake of the Coastal trough/low and could bring temperatures into the mid 30's for lows and highs struggling to achieve the 50 degree mark before we begin to warm up and clear out later next week.

 

wv-animated.gif

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1900hurricane

1900hurricane

Posted
Posted

What a disappointment this system is turning out to be in terms of precip. Only 0.06" last night and it looks like most of the precip associated with the ejecting low will be shunted offshore too. But it gets even better! Longer range progs have nothing but dry NW flow through day ten. Ugh, someone put me out of my misery...

 

test8.gif

 

/disappointment post

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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

Good to see that pesky Baja upper low left some healthy snow totals across the Upper Rio Grande Gorge of Southern Colorado and Northern New Mexico. While some maybe disappointed that the Winter has not produced what they had hope for, the persistent upper trough draped from SE Canada to our SW across Mexico has helped in the long term drought situation. There are spotty areas near N Texas up into the Western half of Oklahoma that need rain, but West Texas into New Mexico and along Coastal Texas into Louisiana have benefited from the pattern that developed mid last November. College Station recorded the 7th 'wettest' January since records have been kept at Aggie Land.

 

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DFWWeather

DFWWeather

Posted
Posted

Nice bust on temperatures this morning at DFW. MEX/MOS Guidance came in unanimously with 27°F for Monday morning for DFW Airport yesterday. FWD had 30°F for the morning issuance for Monday morning and they lowered to 27°F in the afternoon update. The actual temp 24°F.

 

UPDATE: It is almost noon and still 30°F at DFW Airport. Beginning to question if we will actually make it to 40°F today. This airmass means business!

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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

Ok, I know I'm a sucker and have some issues.... but the Euro 12z D10 500mb pattern is intriguing

The various ensemble schemes seem to like the mid February timeframe for a big shot of colder air. What a change down here in SE Texas today from yesterday when I was wearing a t shirt doing to pre Spring yard work and sweating.

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

Nice bust on temperatures this morning at DFW. MEX/MOS Guidance came in unanimously with 27°F for Monday morning for DFW Airport yesterday. FWD had 30°F for the morning issuance for Monday morning and they lowered to 27°F in the afternoon update. The actual temp 24°F.

 

UPDATE: It is almost noon and still 30°F at DFW Airport. Beginning to question if we will actually make it to 40°F today. This airmass means business!

 

 

Yeah.  Just went for a walk without a jacket.  Mistake.  

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Nah.  Despite my gloomy outlook, climo says we get something in the next 4-6 weeks.  

 

I'm sure everyone has seen this paper that shows climo for us at around 3" and obviously we are way below that.  This evenings Euro weekly run is pretty positive for the 2nd half of Feb.  It is hard not to throw in the towel but this winter may be able to come up with a 4th quarter rally. 

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