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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 6

Portastorm

By Portastorm,
in Central/Western States

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
Posted

Looks like it is a good bit cooler at the surface vs. 1/19 00z.  However, I don't put much faith in the NAM... have to see it happen with the other models before buying in.  I'm not getting NAM'ed again! 

The NAM can overdo precip, but it does seem to catch on to things before the globals. We will not really know until Thursday when we start getting the short range models and real time local data.

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1900hurricane

1900hurricane

Posted
Posted

Just at first glance, the NAM looks too far north with the precip, overall kind of a crazy run. 

 

Yeah, a little bit! Let's make a comparison, just for fun...

 

f42.gif

 

021112.png

 

Those two aren't too dissimilar, are they?

 

Now, with that being said, I'm leaning pretty far away from the NAM myself right now. I'm thinking more of a GFS/ECMWF compromise, but even those have some fun potential.

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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

The overnight guidance continues to advertise the biggest winter storm of the season impacting the Sangre de Cristo/Jemez Ranges into Raton and the Eastern rolling Plains on New Mexico into the Panhandles of Texas/Oklahoma and S into West Texas. Snow totals nearing 2 feet are possible across N and NE New Mexico with totals nearing a foot possible across the Panhandle Region. The NAM and SREF are very bullish on a potential high impact event along the Red River and just NW of the Ft Worth/Dallas area extending E into Texarkana and Shreveport. In the warm sector, 1-2 inch rainfall and amounts with some isolated 3-4 inch amounts may be possible along Coastal Texas and Louisiana. there is still some uncertainty regarding the wrap around moisture in the wake of the Coastal low/trough has the 5H cold core upper trough lags behind into Friday as it shifts E. Portions of the Tennessee Valley into the Appalachians may see a significant winter storm event as well and possibly could effect portions of the Mid Atlantic Region on Saturday.

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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

 Morning Briefing from Jeff:

 

 

Strong storm system will bring impacts to SE TX over the next 48 hours.

 

Upper level trough over the SW US will deepen (intensify) and move eastward into the southern plains on Thursday and Friday. A weak surface cold front will cross the region this morning helping to scour out the dense sea fog, but clouds will linger over the region and highs today will be 5-10 degrees colder than yesterday in the low to mid 60’s.

 

Rapid changes onset this evening as combined deep Pacific moisture tap and Gulf moisture begin to overrun the surface cold dome. Coastal surface trough/low will be forced near the middle TX coast early Thursday as strong height falls overspread TX from the west. Moisture values soar through the roof overnight with values at CRP approaching the climatological maximum for middle January with PWS surging to over 1.50 inches and nearing 1.75 inches. This is nearly summer moisture being worked on by wintertime dynamics…so it is going to rain and rain a lot!

 

Will onset light rain and showers this evening from west to east across the area with rainfall really ramping up after midnight into early Thursday as the coastal low deepens off the middle coast swinging copious moisture inland. Instability is lacking so not expecting much if any thunder, but widespread waves of light to moderate rainfall with bands of heavy rainfall is likely from after midnight to early afternoon of Thursday.

 

Rainfall Amounts:

GFS model output is showing a solid 2.0 inches across much of the area and given the “excessive” moisture values that will be in place this is certainly likely. Will go with widespread 1.5-2.5 inches with isolated totals of 3.0 inches. Virtually the entire area will see a good soaking rainfall, but the area along and south of US 59 stand the best shot at heavy rainfall especially Thursday morning. Even though moisture levels will approach maximum values, the lack of sustain deep convection (limited instability) should preclude short term excessive rainfall rates.

 

Widespread nature of the rainfall combined with already moist soils will generate run-off from this event into area watersheds and rivers. Main threat will be minor street flooding during period of heavy rainfall.  

 

Marine:

Coastal system (low) deepens as it crosses our coastal waters Thursday/Friday. NE winds will stiffen today and then shift to ENE and increase more on Thursday. Sustained winds of 15-25mph will be likely on Thursday and this will increase to 20-30mph Thursday night as the pressure gradient tightens. This is a favorable wind direction for coastal water level rise on the upper TX coast and expect tides to begin to increase Thursday morning and peak Thursday evening before winds shift around to the NW and offshore. Current extra-tropical storm surge guidance based on the GFS model run shows both Galveston and Sabine Pass approaching 2.0 ft of total water level rise Thursday evening with almost a foot being storm surge. These levels are below critical coastal flood elevations, but will put water well up to beaches and into low lying areas. Wave run-up especially on the backside (north) of Galveston Island and the west side of Galveston Bay may result in minor coastal overwash of bulkhead protection. Could see near gale force wind gust Thursday night and Friday morning as the low pressure system moves toward the Louisiana coastal waters. Coastal water levels will rapidly fall Friday morning with strong offshore flow.

 

Temperatures:

Cold air advection will remain in place throughout this event with the warm sector remain far out over the Gulf waters. Temperatures will remain steady in the 40’s on Thursday and Friday. Cold portion of the main upper trough passes nearly overhead Friday afternoon with at least one model showing critical thickness values being reached for some winter precipitation north of HWY 105. Will disregard this potential at this time due to warm surface temperatures and lack of any other support from other model guidance.

 

Weekend:

It will be all over and done late Friday with another very nice weekend expected as the storm system departs to the east. Skies will clear Saturday with only some high clouds spilling across the region. Temperatures will range from the 30’s for lows to the 60’s for highs.   

 

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Looks like the 6z NAM doubled down on crazy for areas between DFW and the Red River. I would love the snow but am very skeptical of that solution. FWD issued a great discussion this morning on the system.

ETA: 12z NAM looks similar to the last 3 runs. It seems locked in, if only it was a reliable model.

ETA 2: 9z SREF plumes have some crazy totals!

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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

The radar is beginning to light up out West as Eastern Pacific moisture streams ENE and snow increasing across the Panhandle as well as across Northern New Mexico and Colorado as the two upper air disturbances begin the merging process.

 

southplains_loop.gif

 

sat_ir_enh_hem_loop-12.gif

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vwgrrc

vwgrrc

Posted
Posted

Looks like the 6z NAM doubled down on crazy for areas between DFW and the Red River. I would love the snow but am very skeptical of that solution. FWD issued a great discussion this morning on the system.

ETA: 12z NAM looks similar to the last 3 runs. It seems locked in, if only it was a reliable model.

ETA 2: 9z SREF plumes have some crazy totals!

Crazy snow for dfw? Can't believe that.

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DFWWeather

DFWWeather

Posted
Posted

From FWD:

 

 

THIS MORNING UPDATE IS FOR MINOR CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. PACKAGE STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

IN /FORECASTING TEXAS SNOW STORMS/ BY TED RYAN AND STACIE HANES...WHICH IS AVAILABLE THROUGH INTERNET SEARCH...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A /DETACHING UPPER TROUGH/ SCENARIO. THE PIECE STATES THAT THIS SCENARIO IS THE MOST FREQUENT SNOW PRODUCER ACROSS TEXAS...BUT IN THIS CASE FOR NORTH/CENTRAL TX 500MB TEMPS ARE ABOUT 8 DEG C WARMER THAN THE MEAN. ALSO...ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE ABOUT 24 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM ARRIVES AND THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED. SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT EAST NORTHEAST AND EVEN THOUGH THEY WILL BACK MORE NORTHERLY...TEMPERATURES IN AR/MO/OK/KS ARE ABOVE FREEZING AS I WRITE THIS.

WE ARE STILL FORECASTING A MIX THURSDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE COLDER AIR FILTERING IN WITH THE UPPER LOW PASSAGE...THE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WILL OCCUR AGAIN...THIS TIME FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LOW OCCURS...AND ONCE AGAIN SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING. WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS ON FRIDAY.

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DFWWeather

DFWWeather

Posted
Posted

Nothing really surprising out of the 12z GFS or Euro. Basically we just sit back and see if the NAM is totally out to lunch or if is correctly handling the mesoscale features that produce the heavy snow.

 Is it me or is the 12z ECMWF coming in colder at both H85 and at the surface?

 

Several SREF ensemble members are forecasting a high impact winter storm across North Texas too, even more than the NAM. Texas Tech is all cold rain though.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Several SREF ensemble members are forecasting a high impact winter storm across North Texas too, even more than the NAM. Texas Tech is all cold rain though.

I'm sure the SREF / NAM combo is causing a bit of nervousness over at FWD but it seems like a highly unlikely scenario. They went into pretty good detail this morning about how the NAM was generating snow and why they were discounting it. However, if by chance that solution were to verify then you would obviously have a very high impact event.

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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

Winter storm for n TX? Can someone check that?

An SPS...

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

254 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>146-156-157-159-220500-

MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-

HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-

ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-

JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-

NAVARRO-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-MCLENNAN-

254 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

...RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH

THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WIDESPREAD

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

IN AN AREA NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CISCO TO WEATHERFORD TO

DENTON TO DENISON...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH THE RAIN AFTER

MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A CHANGEOVER TO ALL

SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT SOME TIME. SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING

THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND THUS MOST OF

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MELT AS IT FALLS TO THE GROUND.

HOWEVER...SOME SMALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR MAINLY ON GRASSY

SURFACES OR EXPOSED METAL SURFACES SUCH AS CARS. AT THIS

TIME...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN ONE

INCH. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME SLUSH COULD OCCUR ON LESS TRAVELED

ROADS BUT ICY ROAD CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. WITH MOST OF THE

SNOW MELTING...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS DUE TO THE SNOW ARE NOT

EXPECTED AND NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING SOME DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ANY

RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO ALL RAIN BY MIDDAY...BUT

SOME SNOW FLAKES OR LIGHT SNOW COULD MIX IN DURING THE DAY. NO

ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON

THURSDAY.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX WITH THE

RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS A LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO ATHENS.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN MOSTLY BE ABOVE FREEZING BUT MAY

REACH FREEZING IN AREAS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX.

WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL TO FREEZING...SOME VERY MINOR

ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW MAY OCCUR ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT OTHERWISE

NO ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED. NO IMPACTS OR TRAVEL

IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.

 

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vwgrrc

vwgrrc

Posted
Posted

Yes. Saw it minutes ago. But in short, no impact!

An SPS...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

254 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>146-156-157-159-220500-

MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-

HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-

ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-

JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-

NAVARRO-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-MCLENNAN-

254 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

...RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH

THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WIDESPREAD

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

IN AN AREA NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CISCO TO WEATHERFORD TO

DENTON TO DENISON...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH THE RAIN AFTER

MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A CHANGEOVER TO ALL

SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT SOME TIME. SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING

THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND THUS MOST OF

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MELT AS IT FALLS TO THE GROUND.

HOWEVER...SOME SMALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR MAINLY ON GRASSY

SURFACES OR EXPOSED METAL SURFACES SUCH AS CARS. AT THIS

TIME...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN ONE

INCH. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME SLUSH COULD OCCUR ON LESS TRAVELED

ROADS BUT ICY ROAD CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. WITH MOST OF THE

SNOW MELTING...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS DUE TO THE SNOW ARE NOT

EXPECTED AND NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING SOME DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ANY

RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO ALL RAIN BY MIDDAY...BUT

SOME SNOW FLAKES OR LIGHT SNOW COULD MIX IN DURING THE DAY. NO

ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON

THURSDAY.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX WITH THE

RAIN AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS A LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO ATHENS.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN MOSTLY BE ABOVE FREEZING BUT MAY

REACH FREEZING IN AREAS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX.

WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL TO FREEZING...SOME VERY MINOR

ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW MAY OCCUR ON GRASSY SURFACES...BUT OTHERWISE

NO ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED. NO IMPACTS OR TRAVEL

IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.

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wxmx

wxmx

Posted
Posted

On an unrelated note, I'm kind of liking the 12z Euro at D10...

Not that different from the 12z GFS...even the GGEM is similar. -EPO returns, hence they show big cold highs barreling down the Plains and a pretty big  trough/ULL moving east across Nern MX, cold and moisture, more than plenty. Potentially a high impact winter event for many, although nothing more than that attm, potential.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Not that different from the 12z GFS...even the GGEM is similar. -EPO returns, hence they show big cold highs barreling down the Plains and a pretty big trough/ULL moving east across Nern MX, cold and moisture, more than plenty. Potentially a high impact winter event for many, although nothing more than that attm, potential.

18z GFS continues the slow drum beat of something scary brewing in the LR. Also, the 12z Euro EPS had some of the craziest individual snow members I've seen for Texas. If I still lived in DC this look would have me giddy. One thing I always liked to see was snow in Texas and the deep south as systems wound up and prepared to come up the coast.

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
Posted

18z GFS continues the slow drum beat of something scary brewing in the LR. Also, the 12z Euro EPS had some of the craziest individual snow members I've seen for Texas. If I still lived in DC this look would have me giddy. One thing I always liked to see was snow in Texas and the deep south as systems wound up and prepared to come up the coast.

Hope we do get a big storm out of that. The models will probably lose it this weekend then we will wait to see if it shows back up by the middle of next week as that is the typical pattern of the models.
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deltadog03

deltadog03

Posted
Posted

Hey gang, new weather video is up!  Talking about the storm for Thursday, Friday and Saturday, PLUS the clipper and what that potential could do for us.  Then** we look ahead toward the **POTENTIAL** for another storm as we get closer to D10-11  *superbowl Sunday*  The TRENDS are very promising and encouraging, but obviously its quite a bit of ways away.  We shall see, but I like the "look" so far.  Thanks for watching!

https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons

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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

Rain has transitioned to snow near San Angelo this morning around 3:00 AM and may cause some ptype issues N and W of the Metroplex. The Coastal low/trough is beginning to organize along the Lower Texas Coast at this hour. Rain with embedded elevated storms should increase today along and N of the surface boundary. QPF is still suggesting 2+ inches of rainfall across SE Texas into Louisiana today into tonight before the surface low shifts E. The cold core upper trough shifts E on Friday and should end our precipitation chances. The longer range guidance continues to advertise a significant winter storm across our Region as we end January and begin February.

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