Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 6

[Srain]

Outside of New Mexico, West Texas and the Panhandle Region, this looks more like a cold stratiform rain event with a strung out positive tilted trough and a weak NW Gulf coastal low that could bring an inch or two of rain across Central/SE/E Texas into Louisiana. Surface temperatures appear to warm for anything other than just a chilly rain Thursday. That said the disturbance is still across the N Pacific, but temperatures up stream are not that impressive for delivering wintry weather outside of the higher elevations. Outside of the Front Range, there is absolutely no snow on the ground that I could see on my flight home from Denver yesterday afternoon.

[bubba hotep]

Seems like the models have stabilized a bit with the late week system, probably another cold rain.  After that, man is the long range looking like a major bummer now... unless you like a +/neutral AO/EPO pattern.  It starts to seem desperate when you are looking for a pattern change past the 1st week of February.  Climo really starts to work against us and our best days of this winter might have occurred in November. There are still a lot of signals that seem to point to a colder than normal February but who knows if that will happen.  Maybe the models will flip cold in the long range starting with 00z tonight! 

[deltadog03]

Favor time, if y'all don't mind.  I just uploaded a new video with my thoughts on what may or may not happen with this storm.  I know many of y'all like my Facebook page, and I can't thank y'all enough.  IF not, please do.   So we don't clutter up this thread, please check out the video and let me know what y'all think, but I want to know what y'all think as well.  Drop a comment and let me know how I can improve the videos or whatever.  Plus vote on what y'all think happens and we will see who gets the closest when done.  Should be fun!  Thanks everyone!  -Chris  

https://www.facebook...riswxmanSimmons

[bubba hotep]

Larry Cosgrove is going all in!    (image was posted on his Twitter account)

 

[Srain]

The trends today via virtually all the guidance suggest a fairly significant winter storm is possible from Santa Fe north into the Sangre de Cristo/Upper Rio Grande Gorge and on SE toward Sandia Peak as well as most of Eastern New Mexico. QPF increased significantly into the Pecos River Valley across the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma with borderline winter storm potential across the Permian Basin. The guidance is beginning to latch onto some potential of some stronger storms along Coastal Texas. This storm looks to have a bit more potential than the storm I experienced last week while in New Mexico. Bears watching.

[Srain]

Evening briefing from Jeff:

Mild, dry, and sunny conditions since last Friday will continue through tomorrow.

Zonal flow aloft has resulted in a warming and drying trends compared to the last few weeks of clouds, cold and rain. Winds have returned from the south today and this is resulting in a steady but gradual moistening trend of the low level air mass. Increasing moisture and clear skies along with calm winds tonight should promote areas of dense fog on Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be warmer than today with southerly flow continuing and compressional heating south of an incoming frontal boundary expected to arrive late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Highs will reach the lower to mid 70’s. Enjoy as this will be quickly ended on Wednesday.

Front will cross the area early Wednesday with temperatures cooler on Wednesday with cold air advection and increasing cloud cover. Short wave trough over the SW US will deepen and slow its eastward progression resulting in a period of strong overrunning moisture above the surface cold dome late Wednesday through early Friday with Thursday being the target day for widespread rainfall. Lift and moisture really ramp up Wednesday evening and expect light rain to develop SW to NE across the area after sunset and become increasingly widespread and heavier during the day on Thursday. PWS rise to 1.2-1.4 inches which is respectable for middle January so think a good soaking rainfall is likely for much of the area and much of the state for that matter. It will be cold both Thursday and Friday with temperatures holding in the 40’s through much of the period for both lows and highs.

Will go with widespread amounts of 1-2 inches and favor the SW half of the region for the higher amounts. A few locations could see locally higher amounts (greater than 2.0 inches) where any heavier rains train on Thursday. General thinking is that this will be mainly stratiform rainfall with a few embedded convective cells and this should keep rainfall rates on the lower side (possibly up to .25-.50 of an inch an hour under the heaviest cells). May need to bump rainfall totals up a little more over the next 48 hours given statured profiles being shown and potential for a slower moving system lingering rainfall into Friday.

Storm system should move eastward by late Friday with clearing and mild conditions expected for next weekend (similar to this weekend, but maybe a touch colder).

[bubba hotep]

Looks like the 00z GFS is coming in a tad wetter and a tad colder for the DFW area. Some subtle changes at 500mb and this is getting close to being something... 

[bubba hotep]

The trends today via virtually all the guidance suggest a fairly significant winter storm is possible from Santa Fe north into the Sangre de Cristo/Upper Rio Grande Gorge and on SE toward Sandia Peak as well as most of Eastern New Mexico. QPF increased significantly into the Pecos River Valley across the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma with borderline winter storm potential across the Permian Basin. The guidance is beginning to latch onto some potential of some stronger storms along Coastal Texas. This storm looks to have a bit more potential than the storm I experienced last week while in New Mexico. Bears watching.

 

Based off the 00z GFS, the drive from Dumas to Raton will be tricky for anyone heading up to the Front Range.  They might want to spend the night with the Ding Dong Daddy. 

[David Reimer]

Definitely have seen interesting trends with today's weather model guidance. Just glancing over the 0Z GFS and the 0Z NAM both seem to be in agreement a fairly decent snow is in store. I'll be ramping up the winter weather wording on Texas Storm Chasers platforms tomorrow and would not be surprised to see a Winter Storm Watch for parts of the Panhandle and South Plains. Good rains are coming for Central Texas east into East/Southeast Texas as well. At least the cold weather will be short lived with 70s returning by next week. 

[Srain]

The overnight guidance continues to advertise a significant winter storm across New Mexico with a growing potential for accumulating snow across the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma. The SREF plumes NW of the Metroplex tend to raise an eyebrow with dewpoints borderline with several plumes indicating a brief round of heavy snow near Graham. Further south in the warm sector, the short-term meso guidance is indicating a stronger Coastal low/trough developing near Matagorda moving ENE with a heavy rainfall potential along the Upper Texas Coast on E into Southern Louisiana. The trends are slowing the progression of the positive tilted cold upper trough by about 12 to 18 hours with some wrap around moisture as colder air is pulled S in the wake of the surface low and a cold pocket aloft trailing the Coastal low. The soundings become borderline with the wrap around moisture possibly ending as some very cold rain mixed with a sleet pellet or two  across portions of Central and E Texas on Friday extending from near Georgetown/Temple and possibly into the Bryan/College Station to Centerville and Lufkin areas into Louisiana near Fort Polk. It is still too far out to know with any certainty, but may be worth monitoring for any surprise wintry mischief. Surface temperatures look too warm for any major problems at this time.

 

 

 

[ams30721us]

00z models and now the 12Z NAM is starting to make this system look interesting again for portions of N and E TX. In fact, with the cold core low traveling over the region Thursday night into Friday, models are now seeing the dynamics and for the first time, actually spitting out snow potential for the region. Any slight trend colder or stronger with the upper low and this thing could get really interesting on the backside for North and East Texas, and even the ArkLaTex region up into West Tenn. As is, 12z Nam FWIW, is indicating the potential of some backside accumulating snow with the upper low. Let's see how the rest of the 12z Guidance comes in. 

 

 

[aggiegeog]

00z models and now the 12Z NAM is starting to make this system look interesting again for portions of N and E TX. In fact, with the cold core low traveling over the region Thursday night into Friday, models are now seeing the dynamics and for the first time, actually spitting out snow potential for the region. Any slight trend colder or stronger with the upper low and this thing could get really interesting on the backside for North and East Texas, and even the ArkLaTex region up into West Tenn. As is, 12z Nam FWIW, is indicating the potential of some backside accumulating snow with the upper low. Let's see how the rest of the 12z Guidance comes in. 

Just saw this this and it confirms my suspicions about how this storm has been modeled. Wet snow or rain/snow mix is possible anywhere north of I-20. 

[ams30721us]

Yep, the difference is the guidance is coming in with a much stronger wound up system. This will actually warm up upperl level temps during the Thursday timeframe almost promising just a cold rain. The big change is the upper level low now forecast to come out to the east across N. TX bringing with it more precip into Friday and dynamics and cold core enough to bring snow down to the surface ina more widespread fashion. Of course, let's check the rest of the 12z guidance this afternoon. 

[aggiegeog]

Yep, the difference is the guidance is coming in with a much stronger wound up system. This will actually warm up upperl level temps during the Thursday timeframe almost promising just a cold rain. The big change is the upper level low now forecast to come out to the east across N. TX bringing with it more precip into Friday and dynamics and cold core enough to bring snow down to the surface ina more widespread fashion. Of course, let's check the rest of the 12z guidance this afternoon. 

Model watching is kicking into high gear. Once we get into the NAM range I start using it more than the globals to see the finer details then the rapid short range models on the day of.

Right now for NE TX I am calling for low 40s and rain on Thursday then a rain/snow mix north of I-20 and snow north of I-30 for Friday morning. Though that could change plenty as this is a dynamic situation.

[bubba hotep]

Yep, the difference is the guidance is coming in with a much stronger wound up system. This will actually warm up upperl level temps during the Thursday timeframe almost promising just a cold rain. The big change is the upper level low now forecast to come out to the east across N. TX bringing with it more precip into Friday and dynamics and cold core enough to bring snow down to the surface ina more widespread fashion. Of course, let's check the rest of the 12z guidance this afternoon.

The Euro run that really hammered us was rain on the front end with a transition to heavy snow. It was more wound up and passed the vort south of DFW. The models have really struggled with how to deal with the multiple pieces of energy. This might be a case of the models trying to properly resolve things right up until the end. Trends in either direction wouldn't surprise me at this point. Right now, the big winner appears to be NE New Mexico and the panhandle.

[DFWWeather]

Looks like FWD is going for Rain/Snow mix for Metro for Thursday night into Friday morning with wrap around. Overall, not very optimistic about this system as surface temps just too warm. Need to fall 28°F or lower to make this count and that just isn't going to happen. I've all but given up on this winter.

[aggiegeog]

Looks like FWD is going for Rain/Snow mix for Metro for Thursday night into Friday morning with wrap around. Overall, not very optimistic about this system as surface temps just too warm. Need to fall 28°F or lower to make this count and that just isn't going to happen. I've all but given up on this winter.

We rarely see accumulating snow with temps in the 20s. Mid 30s is just fine to get snow that accumulates on grass and keeps roads clear or slushy. Key is upper level temps being saturated and below freezing with a level of sub -10C for snow flakes to form in. 

[Srain]

The GFS and Euro are still trying to resolve exactly how the two shortwaves merge (one moving E from California with a secondary dropping S from Canada) and just how deep or wrapped up the 5H/7H low becomes. That said the WPC has increased snow fall amounts rather significantly across Northern and NE New Mexico into the Panhandles of TX/OK. Portions of the Sangre de Cristo Range could see totals exceeding a foot with some 8 inch amounts across the Upper Rio Grande Valley floor. Also the 12Z Euro is suggesting some 1-3 inch amounts of snow could fall overnight Thursday into Friday as far S as Lufkin as the upper low trails the Coastal low with some wrap around moisture. The GFS is drier, but this is one of those situations where the guidance may not latch on what the sensible weather may be until about 12 to 18 hours out. The QPF has increased rather impressively this afternoon with the WPC Day 1-3 Outlook. Near 2 inch rainfall totals across Central Texas would be welcomed at this point. For those ready to toss winter, climatology suggest that early to mid February is 'prime time' for snowfall potential across most of Texas including SE Texas which typically ends around the 17th of February.

 

 

 

[aggiegeog]

The GFS and Euro are still trying to resolve exactly how the two shortwaves merge (one moving E from California with a secondary dropping S from Canada) and just how deep or wrapped up the 5H/7H low becomes. That said the WPC has increased snow fall amounts rather significantly across Northern and NE New Mexico into the Panhandles of TX/OK. Portions of the Sangre de Cristo Range could see totals exceeding a foot with some 8 inch amounts across the Upper Rio Grande Valley floor. Also the 12Z Euro is suggesting some 1-3 inch amounts of snow could fall overnight Thursday into Friday as far S as Lufkin as the upper low trails the Coastal low with some wrap around moisture. The GFS is drier, but this is one of those situations where the guidance may not latch on what the sensible weather may be until about 12 to 18 hours out. The QPF has increased rather impressively this afternoon with the WPC Day 1-3 Outlook. Near 2 inch rainfall totals across Central Texas would be welcomed at this point. For those ready to toss winter, climatology suggest that early to mid February is 'prime time' for snowfall potential across most of Texas including SE Texas which typically ends around the 17th of February.

 

01202015 19Z Day 1 to 3 QPF d13_fill.gif

Things are sure soming together for a nice storm. Plenty of rain for most of the state and heavy snow in NW TX. Followed by snow and rain on the backside depending on exactly how cold the column ends up being.

[DFWWeather]

We rarely see accumulating snow with temps in the 20s. Mid 30s is just fine to get snow that accumulates on grass and keeps roads clear or slushy. Key is upper level temps being saturated and below freezing with a level of sub -10C for snow flakes to form in. 

 

Yeah I know, but wet snows don't count in my book. Mainly cause if the streets don't ice over completely, I still have to go to work and get out in that mess (and it is a real pain). And they usually don't unless temps get to 28°F or lower. I just rather it not snow at all in that case. However, snows have fallen at warmer temps in the 30s, and if enough falls, can help the overnight temps drop further.

[Quixotic1]

 For those ready to toss winter, climatology suggest that early to mid February is 'prime time' for snowfall potential across most of Texas including SE Texas which typically ends around the 17th of February.

 

 

 

You're right, of course.  Just took a look at winters where at DFW there was a trace or less for the winter leading into February, and it appears that about half of them had something in February or March.

 

That said, the only thing that's been impressive so far, was November.   02-03 is used to keep my hopes up as there was little until late January and then a massive sleet storm at the end of February.  But whew, man have the shortwaves been getting sheared out and moisture starved and now the cold is gone.  Beyond the end of the week looks downright bleak.    

 

Latest accumulating snow I've seen is late March, so until then the watch will continue.      

[Quixotic1]

Yeah I know, but wet snows don't count in my book. Mainly cause if the streets don't ice over completely, I still have to go to work and get out in that mess (and it is a real pain). And they usually don't unless temps get to 28°F or lower. I just rather it not snow at all in that case. However, snows have fallen at warmer temps in the 30s, and if enough falls, can help the overnight temps drop further.

 

Grass and car toppers count.  That's better than nothing.  A la 94-95 and 2005-06.

[aggiegeog]

You're right, of course.  Just took a look at winters where at DFW there was a trace or less for the winter leading into February, and it appears that about half of them had something in February or March.

 

That said, the only thing that's been impressive so far, was November.   02-03 is used to keep my hopes up as there was little until late January and then a massive sleet storm at the end of February.  But whew, man have the shortwaves been getting sheared out and moisture starved and now the cold is gone.  Beyond the end of the week looks downright bleak.    

 

Latest accumulating snow I've seen is late March, so until then the watch will continue.      

Last year we got a couple inches of sleet in early March followed by flurries and temps in the teens. A few years ago we had accumulating snow around April 8th, I think it was the day before Easter. That is to say that we have a long way to go for this winter. We have had cold and we have had ample moisture, just need a system to hold together across the state to give us some snow. Maybe this week will be it or maybe we will have to wait for another storm.

[bubba hotep]

Things are sure soming together for a nice storm. Plenty of rain for most of the state and heavy snow in NW TX. Followed by snow and rain on the backside depending on exactly how cold the column ends up being.

Yea, even as late as Friday and Saturday there were model runs that had the energy shearing out and much of the area north of I-10 dry. If we can get widespread 1" rains across the DFW area then I'll count that as a big win. Anything else, like a wet snow car topper, is straight up bonus in my book. Of course, there are still a few hail mary SREF members to pull for!

[bubba hotep]

I was pretty much ready to punt February yesterday at this time but feel a lot better about things today

It's hard to not loose track of large scale forcing and get wrapped up in trends that appear to surface after a couple of long range model runs with so much data available multiple times a day. I am back to thinking February will be pretty good to us.

[ams30721us]

From SHV:

 

 

 

AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AND SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS TX INTO THE WRN PARTS
OF OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND QUICKLY EXPAND OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER TROF APPROACHES...COLD
AIR WILL DIVE SEWRD WITH THE UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS N TX. THE
TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND
THIS WILL ALLOW OUR ATMOSPHERE TO COOL FROM THE TOP DOWN AND LEAD
TO A CHANCE OF RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-30 ON FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP ALL RAIN FARTHER
SOUTH BUT THIS WILL WARRANT CLOSE OBSERVATION AS THE COLD AIR WITH
THIS TROF MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A BRIEF MIX OR CHANGEOVER ALONG
I-20 ALTHOUGH SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND
THUS THERE IS LITTLE CONCERN FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

 

From DFW:

 

 

 

GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NAM AND 4KM NAM KEEPING
DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE THROUGH THE UPPER LOW PASSAGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR
SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH DRIER...AND BASED SOLELY ON IT I
WOULD NOT FORECAST MIXED PRECIP FRIDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE TWO
NAMS SHOWING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S...10K FT DEEP
MOISTURE...AND A FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 1KFT AGL...I HAVE ADDED
THE R-S- MIX FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING BUT GRASSY AREAS MAY GET ENOUGH SNOW TO TURN
WHITE. PRECIP WILL END DURING THE DAY AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
UPPER LOW DRIES THE ATMOSPHERE.

 

[deltadog03]

Hey everyone, I know we all want some wintry weather, but you have to admit, the weather has been very nice lately.  Lets talk about the storm coming out of the western gulf of mexico for Thur thru Sat.  My thoughts and my forecast and we talk super clipper as well.  Check out the video for more.  Thanks for watching and sharing and liking my page.  

https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons

[1900hurricane]

FWD updated their graphic.

 

 

Further south here in College Station, I'm not really feeling optimistic for snow (for obvious reasons), but what I'm really looking forward to is all the rain expected. I'm starting to see a whole bunch of QPF output in the 2-3" area, which I would be ecstatic to receive. Guidence is sometimes too far north with the highest swaths of precipitation in situations like this, but with HGX already putting a 100% chance of rain for Thursday, I'm really starting to feel like anything under an inch will be a disappointment.

[bubba hotep]

Just some subtle changes at H5 and the Red River is getting smoked on the 00z NAM

 

ETA: Lol, everyone along 287 to DFW and then north of 20 over to Shreveport wins on this run 

[vwgrrc]

Just some subtle changes at H5 and the Red River is getting smoked on the 00z NAM

ETA: Lol, everyone along 287 to DFW and then north of 20 over to Shreveport wins on this run

Is it trending colder for dfw?