DTWXRISK Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 MORE ON THE COMING PATTERN CHANGE ... glad to see WES is a board....i have been talking about the dec 22-26 change for over a week now so the TREND IS MY FRIEND One of the reasons why I am not particularly bullish about the event /threat for December 21 is that the overall pattern on a hemispheric scale ...is not very favorable. Yes the models DO show what appears to be cold HIGH in a pretty good set up ...at least for the beginning of the event. The problem is that the flow at 500 mb across Canada is Pacific and ZONAL ....and has no arctic connection. Thus the HIGH is NOT very cold and has to be the perfect ideal position when the coastal Low begins in order to keep some the precip snow. The only reason why this is potential threat to begin with is the development of the big ocean Low over southeastern Canada (the 50/50 LOW)The NAO is strongly positive which along with the Pacific pattern strongly interdicts the supply of cold air into the Northeast US. But beyond the December 21 event... If we use the overall hemispheric pattern as a starting point we can truly see some significant changes taking place across the hemisphere by DEC 25. Here is the 324 hrs EURO EPS MEAN.... It shows several important tihngs... many of which are self explanatory The 5 days CFS from from the website tropicaltidbits web site has been showing this for while.... and increasingly amplified +PNA and -EPO pattern . Now the euro ensembles are showing this as well. see image The one thing that should be noted is that we do not on this map yet see a -NAO and the PV is still very far to the north over Baffin island. here is the week 3 and 4 500 mb on anomaly maps from CPC. I have drawn in some key features for ease of comprehension. The cfs clearly indicates that the pattern amplification is going to really picked up speed In week 3 and week 4 . The -EPO goes absolutely ballistic in week4 and strongly resembles what we saw last January But again ...even though there IS a -AO we do not have -NAO.. Yet Here is why. Next week as the zonal flow across Canada begins to amplify it will take on the WIDE and BROAD shape. We can all see that. Because of this ...the PV is forced to over to Baffin Island in far Northeast Canada . This in turn means any RIDGE is forced over iceland or the uK or Norway ...and the NAO is either positive or neutral. BUT as the western Canada ridge amplifies ... it will get pulled WEST because of the --EPO development. This will cause western Canada ridge to shaprens up ....which in turn will allow he PV to shift SW into Hudson's bay And THAT that in turn will allow the NAO to go Negative in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 12, 2014 Author Share Posted December 12, 2014 woooo woooooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Most likely have to get a couple more rain storms before the better pattern and it would be nice if Canada could get sufficiently cold again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 woooo woooooo Sounds like a plan....and a good one at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 12, 2014 Author Share Posted December 12, 2014 well if dont think rosss polar flow is going to get Canada cold.. Most likely have to get a couple more rain storms before the better pattern and it would be nice if Canada could get sufficiently cold again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 The new GFS/ECMWF compared the the old GFS shows a slower moving low over Atlantic Canada around the 20th as a result the next storm tracks further south than depicted yesterday. Looking at things this morning, the bigger storm may be toward Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 woooo woooooo 12zgefs12DECXMAS.png Ooooof Ooooof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Stonewall Jackson isn't looking so sturdy these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Cricket cricket Dt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Stonewall Jackson isn't looking so sturdy these days. Stonewall was cut down by his own men by mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Ooooof Ooooof I don't hand out oooofs lightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Stonewall was cut down by his own men by mistake. I could easily see that happening this winter; metaphorically speaking of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 WELL THAT BUSTED HUGE.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Most likely have to get a couple more rain storms before the better pattern and it would be nice if Canada could get sufficiently cold again. It took some extra time but Canada is finally cold Seriously i had felt the cold was coming after Christmas rather than before and here we are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 WELL THAT BUSTED HUGE.... As is this winter and Cohen and all this far. Reminds me of last year when many were touting the coming pattern change to warmth in early Jan lasting through much of Feb. That warmth obviously never came, if only briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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