IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Surface low tracks to Norfolk, rain for everyone within 100 miles of the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Sub 1000mb low over NJ, heavy rain over the area. The 700mb low tracks over Central PA. Lots of moving parts here, and an eternity to work out the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 12, 2014 Author Share Posted December 12, 2014 YES dec 21 low moves up into se caanda and becomes a BIGGER 50/50 Low for xmas week good question. that in turns alters the wave length and BEGINS to pull the ridging into greenland continue - does that low become the new 50/50 ??? If not what happens with it ? what is the NAO phase and location after it leaves ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 YES dec 21 low moves up into se caanda and becomes a BIGGER 50/50 Low for xmas week good question. that in turns alters the wave length and BEGINS to pull the ridging into greenland What's behind it looks interesting..nice setup for past day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 12Z ERO has the DEC 21 low going up the appalachians because the 50/50 Low over se canada leaves It's also showing phasing this run with some stuff in Canada, instead of being a sheared wave. Would have been an interesting run had the 50/50 held a day longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 The 12/21 system has potential if it ejects out of the Plains faster...right now its a day or two late taking the Euro verbatim...if it comes out 24-36 hours earlier its probably a mostly snow event to the coast....its just late enough it allows the previous low and high to depart East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 storm goes up thru the lakes...Cold front passes us but stalls off the coast...Southern storm comes up the stalled front..it's cold enough for mostly snow...my fantasy pre Christmas scenario... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 12, 2014 Author Share Posted December 12, 2014 CORRECT the delay allows the 50 /50 Low to slide away which allows the cold HIGH to move east and hence a more inland track gors sway The 12/21 system has potential if it ejects out of the Plains faster...right now its a day or two late taking the Euro verbatim...if it comes out 24-36 hours earlier its probably a mostly snow event to the coast....its just late enough it allows the previous low and high to depart East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 storm goes up thru the lakes...Cold front passes us but stalls off the coast...Southern storm comes up the stalled front..it's cold enough for mostly snow...my fantasy pre Christmas scenario... The surface low tracks over NJ, not the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 The surface low tracks over NJ, not the lakes. I think he posted a theoretical scenario, not the Euro's output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 The surface low tracks over NJ, not the lakes. don't ruin my fantasy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Odds are the Euro is too slow taking this out of the SW and Plains anyway as it usually is...but too many other things may change between now and then...the tendency so far for the highs coming out of Canada to be colder and drop further south than modeled beyond a few days could be a factor too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 The 12/21 system has potential if it ejects out of the Plains faster...right now its a day or two late taking the Euro verbatim...if it comes out 24-36 hours earlier its probably a mostly snow event to the coast....its just late enough it allows the previous low and high to depart East. You could also hope the 50/50 holds on a bit longer...that would create more of a battleground and allow for even more precipitation where it is precipitating (frontogenesis). Though that could also theoretically hint at suppression issues. This isn't a slam dunk threat by any means, but I think it's worth tracking. Having an omega block and some sort of downstream 50/50 initially with a split-flow STJ wave is never a bad thing...even in a poor airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 I think he posted a theoretical scenario, not the Euro's output. Ah okay my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 You could also hope the 50/50 holds on a bit longer...that would create more of a battleground and allow for even more precipitation where it is precipitating (frontogenesis). Though that could also theoretically hint at suppression issues. This isn't a slam dunk threat by any means, but I think it's worth tracking. Having an omega block and some sort of downstream 50/50 initially with a split-flow STJ wave is never a bad thing...even in a poor airmass. If the 50/50 holds stronger this could end up being a nasty ice issue for inland areas as the WAA fights the cold air to the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 You could also hope the 50/50 holds on a bit longer...that would create more of a battleground and allow for even more precipitation where it is precipitating (frontogenesis). Though that could also theoretically hint at suppression issues. This isn't a slam dunk threat by any means, but I think it's worth tracking. Having an omega block and some sort of downstream 50/50 initially with a split-flow STJ wave is never a bad thing...even in a poor airmass. Yeah I forgot to mention if the 12/17 system is deeper it can change things, the euro is fairly weak with it right now of that bombs out earlier it may hold longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 12z Euro Ensemble mean for the 20-21 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 12z Euro Ensemble mean for the 20-21 storm Gotta look at the individual members. There are a lot of members inside the BM. It only takes a few members well east to pull the mean east at this range. Lotta time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Gotta look at the individual members. There are a lot of members inside the BM. It only takes a few members well east to pull the mean east at this range. Lotta time. I wish I can access them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 The hints about 20/21 and potentially 24/25 have existed for a few days now so it's seems pretty legit to me. It's tough to take any analysis even by the most experienced mets to heart right just because it's so far out. Either way we're likely going to experience some precipitation that week possibly through dual storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 I wish I can access them A stronger 17th system holds a 50 50 Block just long enough . A faster system out of the SW catches the 17th system before it's off the playing field. Don't worry about the mean let's see how those 2 features evolve over the next several days and you will get your answer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 12, 2014 Author Share Posted December 12, 2014 NOT TOO FOOKING SHABBY ... ABBY 12z Euro Ensemble mean for the 20-21 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 What I like is that this is not one and done. You get active southern jet crashing under a POS PNA You always have a chance to time something on the EC if you can get something transient to hold and block Doesn't always work but it's a good pattern post the 20th regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 How old are you? Please use proper grammar. Thanks! He's posted a ton of useful information in regards to our future weather pattern just in this thread alone. I think after doing that, he's entitled to make a silly post consisting of some intentional grammatical errors, eh? If all of us made weather related posts of the same caliber, some joking would definitely be more welcome ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 He's posted a ton of useful information in regards to our future weather pattern just in this thread alone. I think after doing that, he's entitled to make a silly post consisting of some intentional grammatical errors, eh? If all of us made weather related posts of the same caliber, some joking would definitely be more welcome ! The only reason I'm reading this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Ya, DT may be brash and the typeo's plentiful, but the insight is amazing. And to be honest (seeing as I have a very similar sense of sarcastic/brash humor myself according to my friends) a sense of humor is always welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Sorry, I'm a n00b. What is a 50/50 low again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 It's a low pressure system situated at approximately 50 deg. North Latitude 50 deg. West Longitude. The counter-clockwise rotation helps to feed cold air from Canada (assuming it is present there) into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic when a storm is coming up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 A 50/50 may also prevent a system from cutting into the lakes or through the Appalachians. One of the reasons we love the -NAO so much is that it can often set up a 50/50 low plus it allows the polar air to flow down bringing us the cold and establishing a favorable typically coastal track or a Miller B transfer to a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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