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Wintry/Severe/Normal Storm threat 12/19-21

deltadog03

By deltadog03,
in Southeastern States

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deltadog03

deltadog03

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New weather video is up.  Forecast for Middle Georgia and the 7 day for Macon.  I talk plenty about the next weekend storm, and also hint around on some ideas for the Christmas week storm as well.  Thank you all for the new likes on my FB page.  IF you haven't, and want to, please like my page, the video and share and invite all your friends.  Remember, the weather will NEVER wait for you, NEVER wait for your weather information.  Thank you everyone!  Some fun times ahead, and still a few different ideas possible for next weekends storm.  

 

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Wxmanchris/690966551001476?ref=hl

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RONALD B

RONALD B

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Yea def. trend today.In my heart of hearts I kind of agree with Jon....I think the Euro is going to end up being a double barrel Miller Bish system. Personally I'm more interested for Christmas or just after for MBY. Folks closer to VA though should def. be watching.

the euro ensemble had a 50/50 in place at 168 compared too op it's different an u want get a B with that setup
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superjames1992

superjames1992

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Even if this deal takes the perfect track that we're all hoping for, will there really be enough cold air around for areas outside of the mountains to get any substantial winter precip?

 

Yeah, that looks like a problem.  I think we really need a strong system because a weak, strung-out system probably isn't going to have enough cold air around, no matter what track it takes.

 

EDIT: I'm speaking for areas outside the mountains.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

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Yeah, that looks like a problem. I think we really need a strong system because a weak, strung-out system probably isn't going to have enough cold air around, no matter what track it takes.

Yeah, that's what I think. We need a big system in this case...a big system that doesn't cut. That's asking a lot. But, hey, on the bright side, this is good practice for the real thing. We can get all the kinks out on the big rainstorm so when the big snowstorm comes, we'll be ready to execute like a champ! :)

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Jon

Jon

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the euro ensemble had a 50/50 in place at 168 compared too op it's different an u want get a B with that setup

What do you mean compared to OP? Was it not in place on the OP? the OP and EPS look roughly the same with the 50-50 at 168, in fact the EPS 50-50 location is more east by a good amount and the OP shows a more true 50-50 low

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Webberweather53

Webberweather53

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Yeah, that looks like a problem.  I think we really need a strong system because a weak, strung-out system probably isn't going to have enough cold air around, no matter what track it takes.

 

We need to put down a formidable snowpack across the northern tier before we start getting worried about any wintry wx here in the southern US, we're about to make some significant progress over the next week or so however. This storm over the upper midwest should help get us started...

COOPmeannam212F060.png

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superjames1992

superjames1992

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We need to put down a formidable snowpack across the northern tier before we start getting worried about any wintry wx here in the southern US, we're about to make some significant progress over the next week or so however. This storm over the upper midwest should help get us started...

 

 

While it obviously helps, I don't think it's necessarily a necessity to have a snowpack in place prior to the storm.  We've had major winter storms with negligible snowpacks to our north before.

 

nsm_depth_2009121605_National.jpg

 

nsm_depth_2010120305_National.jpg

 

nsm_depth_2004022505_National.png

 

I just don't think we should write off any chances simply because we don't have a nice snowpack in the North (though I realize it hurts our chances).

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RONALD B

RONALD B

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What do you mean compared to OP? Was it not in place on the OP? the OP and EPS look roughly the same with the 50-50 at 168, in fact the EPS 50-50 location is more east by a good amount and the OP shows a more true 50-50 low

the 50 low starts pulling away it's one reason the storm cut thou central nc
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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

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Yeah, that's what I think. We need a big system in this case...a big system that doesn't cut. That's asking a lot. But, hey, on the bright side, this is good practice for the real thing. We can get all the kinks out on the big rainstorm so when the big snowstorm comes, we'll be ready to execute like a champ! :)

 

 

Speaking on behalf of the I-40 Cooridor in the western half of North Carolina...our best Miller-A snowstorms have come from a relative SFC low pressure...1010mb sliding ENE is more than sufficient.

 

The problem in asking for a "bigger, stronger" system is that likely will require some type of phasing which will  more times than not pull the SFC low track inland and pushing the best snow chances to the Apps and West of the chain.

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burrel2

burrel2

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A few days ago the model's were showing better confluence to the North and thus developed some CAD. We need the 50/50 low... but we also need it to move far enough east to allow for some decent HP to build in and provide our cold air damming.  

 

I wouldn't be surprised if the "50/50" trends east with time... the only problem is if it trends anything north of due east it allows room for our low to cut north....

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

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Speaking on behalf of the I-40 Cooridor in the western half of North Carolina...our best Miller-A snowstorms have come from a relative SFC low pressure...1010mb sliding ENE is more than sufficient.

The problem in asking for a "bigger, stronger" system is that likely will require some type of phasing which will more times than not pull the SFC low track inland and pushing the best snow chances to the Apps and West of the chain.

Yeah that's right. Larry's data bears that out too. In this situation, I believe that a weak system will be more likely to be rain, outside of elevation since there's not much cold around. Therefore, you'd need a wound up system to draw in/manufacture enough cold for non liquid precip. But the consequence of a wound up system is that it cuts. Therefore, in this situation, outside of the elevated areas, I don't really see a scenario where we get snow out of this. If it were to bomb out off of the GA coast, then maybe. But that's unlikely to happen.

Weaker systems will do better, as you say, but we need an antecedent cold air mass and/or a good cold air feed, neither of which will be present in this case, unless the models are way off.

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deltadog03

deltadog03

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ya, the GFS looks awful!!  I just think its flat out wrong, IMO  Unless that energy is really going to deflate that much coming east, the GFS will bust BADLY.  Tonights EURO will be really key, IMO.  This would make like 3 runs in a row, in the WHEEL HOUSE of the euro!  This run smells like the typical D4-7 GFS BS.

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