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Wintry/Severe/Normal Storm threat 12/19-21

deltadog03

By deltadog03,
in Southeastern States

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

So it did go right over RDU? Knew a in between solution was coming.

 

Yes.  Here is the track:

 

Hr 168: 1006 mb over Pensacola, FL

Hr 174: 1004 mb east of Macon, GA

Hr 180: 1002 mb south of Florence, SC

Hr 186: 998 mb over Raleigh, NC

Hr 192: 994 mb north of Norfolk, VA

Hr 198: 993 mb 150+ miles east of the Delmarva Peninsula.

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deltadog03

deltadog03

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I think there is plenty of room for this one as well.  EURO has been changing and now we are very close to its wheelhouse.  I Think the euro by D10, for Christmas storm, is an error..That energy will NOT just dive down into the SW.  EURO bias.  That will kick out. Next weekends storm looking more and more interesting.  

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

I think there is plenty of room for this one as well. EURO has been changing and now we are very close to its wheelhouse. I Think the euro by D10, for Christmas storm, is an error..That energy will NOT just dive down into the SW. EURO bias. That will kick out. Next weekends storm looking more and more interesting.

I agree and if it does, the PNA should be more robust in its wake..... and with northern energy diving in, someone, maybe a fairly large area, will have a shot at a white Christmas this year....

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

FWIW the CMA changed drastically this run and since it's the first time most are following this model for winter, we will see, but since it was showing a classic Miller A/nor'easter for several days bombing up the coast then shows this output, you have to wonder. Everyone is seeing positive trends today but I'm actually seeing the opposite, IMO. Miller B/direct track over the SE/NC as a weak wave is a definite probability and it's the one I'm leaning towards. Note it's not just because the CMA changed to this, but given the guidance despite the verification on the last storm (poor) as webber pointed out in the main thread, still thinking the chances of the storm this coming weekend giving anyone in the SE wintry precip (except some backdoor action) is limited, but I digress.

 

12z CMA via WxBell:

168

Oe3ZYB9.png

 

180

9wJl4wK.png

 

192

KlbZ0SK.png

 

Again providing this FWIW. Also, mods, as always if you're wondering about "paid" maps being posted here's Ryan Maue's "rules":

Note: Any maps, images or charts from ECMWF (License) may never be posted or re-distributed (except for WMO-Essential). All other maps, images and charts from other models may be shared in moderation under the following conditions: The images may not be used for any commercial (revenue generating) purpose including, but not limited to, ad-supported websites or private consulting. Any images must be attributed to WeatherBell Analytics. If confused, ask Ryan.

 

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

The individual 12z EPS SLP tracks definitely cluster further SE than the OP.  The Euro ENS mean it self is a broad low over stretched over the SE coast (NC/SC).

 

FWIW the control is very similar to the Op run, although not as robust with the snow.

Yeah actually this EPS mean is definitely a "trend" in the right direction which I didn't expect at all after that OP run. Not Miller Bish at all. Hmm. The Euro really isn't helping anyone today. There's a tiny dark mslp anomaly over Wilmington which is definitely interesting. I'm guessing some folks are going to stay up for the 00z tonight.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Yeah actually this EPS mean is definitely a "trend" in the right direction which I didn't expect at all after that OP run. Not Miller Bish at all. Hmm. The Euro really isn't helping anyone today. There's a tiny dark mslp anomaly over Wilmington which is definitely interesting. I'm guessing some folks are going to stay up for the 00z tonight.

 

Looking at the individual runs there are several that completely squash the storm it appears.

 

Snow map...courtesy of DT in the MA thread...

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_12_2014/post-9415-0-14576400-1418501819.png

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Looking at the individual runs there are several that completely squash the storm it appears.

 

Snow map...courtesy of DT in the MA thread...

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_12_2014/post-9415-0-14576400-1418501819.png

Yeah the mean snowfall map is actually improved as far as coverage goes across the SE when before it was a tight gradient in NC. 0.1" for ATL, Central SC, 0.5" for Central NC, 1" near GSO and the foothills...however the snowfall is lacking in the mountains compared to the 00z snowfall mean...also it's wxbell snowfall output so it's probably not even snow. lol

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Webberweather53

Webberweather53

Posted
Posted

Yeah actually this EPS mean is definitely a "trend" in the right direction which I didn't expect at all after that OP run. Not Miller Bish at all. Hmm. The Euro really isn't helping anyone today. There's a tiny dark mslp anomaly over Wilmington which is definitely interesting. I'm guessing some folks are going to stay up for the 00z tonight.

 

Regardless, I don't see reason to get too worked up over this storm, I think our chances are significantly better to see some sort of wintry wx with the storm that will emerge into the picture around Xmas, w/ much of its energy currently in association w/ a shortwave that is moving southeastward out of southern Russia & into Manchuria, China...

wv.jpg

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Regardless, I don't see reason to get too worked up over this storm, I think our chances are significantly better to see some sort of wintry wx with the storm that will emerge into the picture around Xmas, w/ much of its energy currently in association w/ a shortwave that is moving southeastward out of southern Russia & into Manchuria, China...

 

I agree with you 100% Webber.

 

The 12z GEFS probabilities for those interested (courtesy WxBell)...these are probably (pun intended) not that useful this far out but whatever:

 

<=0C 850mb's

HpsWT9k.png

 

<1010mb mslp

wAKlYQ6.png

GZT6IsU.png

Ur6oZKA.png

 

 

The probabilities around Christmas are much better, as expected.

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

The 12z EPS mean "snowfall" actually is lower than the 00z run.  Perhaps that is because of lesser precip overall with some of the solutions being OTS?  It's probably just noise at this point, anyways.

I know you have access to WxBell so you might have seen it, but 12z Euro Ens mean prob. accumulated snowfall of >=1" for this for RDU at 10-20%...definitely nothing exciting about that.

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Yeah, but look at how much further SE it's ended up when compared to the 0z run.

 

0z run...

 

 

 

 

18z run

 

 

 

Yea def. trend today.In my heart of hearts I kind of agree with Jon....I think the Euro is going to end up being a double barrel Miller Bish system. Personally I'm more interested for Christmas or just after for MBY. Folks closer to VA though should def. be watching.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Yea def. trend today.In my heart of hearts I kind of agree with Jon....I think the Euro is going to end up being a double barrel Miller Bish system. Personally I'm more interested for Christmas or just after for MBY. Folks closer to VA though should def. be watching.

 

I agree, for us it will be tough, but not for western NC though.

 

GFS para is very Euro like with the 20/21st system, but the phase misses day 6-7 and the SLP tracks OTS.  The HP is further north too but it was interesting.

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