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Wintry/Severe/Normal Storm threat 12/19-21

deltadog03

By deltadog03,
in Southeastern States

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Jon

Jon

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Just saying.. 00z EPS had 27 members with some kind of Winter weather for Blairsville, GA.  20 GSP, KCAE 1, Rockhill 14.. ATL 6 (trace)

The probabilities are slightly better over NC but still 0-10% prob of 1" snow on the EPS for the areas you mentioned. What stands out to me is the probabilities over WVA, which increased from 70% last run to 99.9%. Probabilites also went from 30% to 50% over KY. That screams cutter to me just because with a slider or weak low solution you're not going to get moisture up in WVA obviously, so the Euro is strongly favoring a Miller B set up I think based on just looking at probability maps. Even looking at the mslp anomaly maps I mentioned earlier I still thing the 00z is a Miller B look. We'll see how it trends but I don't like it. That coupled with the GFS looks especially the para...I just don't know, I gotta go with the EPS mean here. We could end up getting a solution where it doesn't exactly cut but doesn't stay suppressed either and just goes over NC or something like that, bringing some nice cold rain.

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burgertime

burgertime

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The probabilities are slightly better over NC but still 0-10% prob of 1" snow on the EPS for the areas you mentioned. What stands out to me is the probabilities over WVA, which increased from 70% last run to 99.9%. Probabilites also went from 30% to 50% over KY. That screams cutter to me just because with a slider or weak low solution you're not going to get moisture up in WVA obviously, so the Euro is strongly favoring a Miller B set up I think based on just looking at probability maps. Even looking at the mslp anomaly maps I mentioned earlier I still thing the 00z is a Miller B look. We'll see how it trends but I don't like it. That coupled with the GFS looks especially the para...I just don't know, I gotta go with the EPS mean here. We could end up getting a solution where it doesn't exactly cut but doesn't stay suppressed either and just goes over NC or something like that, bringing some nice cold rain.

 

 

Yea everything is saying cutter for now. Still might be an outside shot and since it's the first "threat" really we're probably holding on a little too tightly to it. I'm more interested in what is coming after. One thing for sure is that a pattern change seems to be under way. Will just be lucky if we can eek something out ahead of it. 

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superjames1992

superjames1992

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The probabilities are slightly better over NC but still 0-10% prob of 1" snow on the EPS for the areas you mentioned. What stands out to me is the probabilities over WVA, which increased from 70% last run to 99.9%. Probabilites also went from 30% to 50% over KY. That screams cutter to me just because with a slider or weak low solution you're not going to get moisture up in WVA obviously, so the Euro is strongly favoring a Miller B set up I think based on just looking at probability maps. Even looking at the mslp anomaly maps I mentioned earlier I still thing the 00z is a Miller B look. We'll see how it trends but I don't like it. That coupled with the GFS looks especially the para...I just don't know, I gotta go with the EPS mean here. We could end up getting a solution where it doesn't exactly cut but doesn't stay suppressed either and just goes over NC or something like that, bringing some nice cold rain.

 

The EPS mean snowfall did double for GSO (not sure about other stations).  Looks like probability of >1" snowfall is around 30-40% for GSO (20-30% for >3", 0-10% for >6"), but around 20% for RDU and CLT.  10% extends from just north of ATL to New Bern, NC.  Snowfall probabilities in the WV mountains are high, as you said, but snowfall probabilities for the western WV lowlands (like Huntington, WV) are no better than our backyards.  Also, a good portion of the WV mountains get 40-50% >1" probabilities for a prior system, which might be deceptive.  Snowfall probabilities for most of TN are also fairly low.

 

I doubt this will work out, but you could say that about almost every D7+ modeled storm. :)

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packbacker

packbacker

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The EPS mean snowfall did double for GSO (not sure about other stations).  Looks like probability of >1" snowfall is around 30-40% for GSO, but around 20% for RDU and CLT.  10% extends from just north of ATL to New Bern, NC.  Snowfall probabilities in the WV mountains are high, as you said, but snowfall probabilities for the western WV lowlands (like Huntington, WV) are no better than our backyards.  Snowfall probabilities for most of TN are also fairly low.

 

I doubt this will work out, but you could say that about almost every D7+ modeled storm.

All the models today have trended away from a cutter. Be surprised if Euro cuts. Granted tomorrow or the next day they may go back to cutting.

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packbacker

packbacker

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50/50 will pull out just in time to allow the inland track. No blocking.

 

Correct, running up 95, probably going to hit MA good.  KY and TN get it good.  Also, NC mountains.  Great run for a winter storm for western sides of our region.

 

SLP tracks over CAE, or just east.

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burgertime

burgertime

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50/50 will pull out just in time to allow the inland track. No blocking.

 

Has enough juice on it though you'll probably see a lot of lift in central NC and snow showers would be breaking out around 186...enough qpf to overcome a warm layer to my untrained eye. This one still has potential but it's all about timing and this solution is a big outlier..though as I said earlier with all the northern energy floating around I suspected we might see a phasing solution on this run. 

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