Wintry/Severe/Normal Storm threat 12/19-21

[superjames1992]

the GFS P has been absolutely horrid since its been apart of the models. Even though both GFS are bad, I would take the regular one since the GFS never even had the thanksgiving storm until like a day out.

 

Agreed.  We'll see how the Euro kicks us in the shin later tonight.

[TeleConnectSnow]

All possibilities are on the table still for this period of the 20-21st. However, there is a better chance for frozen later down the road. 26-29th has potential and once the other things come together, JAN and beginning of FEB could definitely be rockin'

[deltadog03]

EURO looks about the same so far thru hr 102, 6z wed.  The upper low is a bit further E over the GL, the energy into Socal is about the same strength and location.

[deltadog03]

BIG changes by HR120, 00z THUR. The energy over the SW is moving EAST and not connected to another piece of energy over the PAC NW..they are really separate and don't look to be joining. up...Either the euro is going on fizzle watch like the goofus, or this could get interesting.

[superjames1992]

I think the Euro is going to take a big step towards what the GFS Parallel and Canadian were selling tonight.  Looks like suppression in the east.

[superjames1992]

Damn, the Euro is really keying on that first wave.

[deltadog03]

I think the Euro is going to take a big step towards what the GFS Parallel and Canadian were selling tonight.  Looks like suppression in the east.

agreed

[deltadog03]

hmmm..James, we might have something here...This is gonna dig SE, it appears.

[deltadog03]

by 12z FRI H5 energy is moving EAST thru central TX...SFC low over southern LA.  2m 0c line is basically I-40

[deltadog03]

SFC low near nola by 18z fri... snowing from little rock to MEM it appears.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Thanks for the pbp!

[deltadog03]

Looks like snow over TN and into WNC by next SAT am.  big change from last runs, so it could be a fluke run, but weaker and colder this run no doubt.

[deltadog03]

Thanks for the pbp!

[WxBlue]

Looks like snow over TN and into WNC by next SAT am.  big change from last runs, so it could be a fluke run, but weaker and colder this run no doubt.

 

850 mb 0C line as far east as I-85 on this one, which is farther than Canadian/Para-GFS got.

[superjames1992]

Looks like snow over TN and into WNC by next SAT am.  big change from last runs, so it could be a fluke run, but weaker and colder this run no doubt.

 

It could be a fluke, but the GFS Para/CMC are onboard with this solution (more or less), too.  Perhaps a cutter won't happen?  We can maybe work with this solution.

[RONALD B]

this run of euro should have snow in nc on 192 looks like snow fall 95 west too me ?

[Ollie Williams]

168

 

 

192

 

 

Thanks guys for the pbp tonight!

[WxBlue]

this run of euro should have snow in nc on 192 looks like snow fall 95 west too me ?

 

More like west of I-77.

 

EDIT: Look like there's some for mountains on clown map, but not too much outside that area.

[RONALD B]

u kidding thats a perfect track for eastern an central nc snow . that upper level low alone should have snow with it ?

[superjames1992]

u kidding thats a perfect track for eastern an central nc snow . that upper level low alone should have snow with it ?

There's not a lot of precip with it, verbatim.

[RONALD B]

There's not a lot of precip with it, verbatim.

yeah i could see that maybe but the track is important this far out the other could trend postive too the ensembels .

[Ollie Williams]

u kidding thats a perfect track for eastern an central nc snow . that upper level low alone should have snow with it ?

It appears to fall apart @ 192.

[WxBlue]

u kidding thats a perfect track for eastern an central nc snow . that upper level low alone should have snow with it ?

 

850 mb level isn't cold enough east of I-85 until after the storm passed on Euro. Track is fine, but it doesn't automatically mean snow if you don't have cold air all the way to the ground. Like SJ1992 said, QPF is pretty lacking as well.

[superjames1992]

yeah i could see that maybe but the track is important this far out the other could trend postive too the ensembels .

 

If you were still curious, the WB clown has 4.0" for Boone, 1.3" for Greensboro, ~1" for Asheville.  Western TN gets hammered.  Those numbers might possibly be legit in a sense as it seems like a line from Greensboro to Shelby is as far as the freezing line at 850 mb gets.  Surface temperatures verbatim are in the low 30s.  Of course, with light precip and temperatures at or above freezing, good luck with getting any of it to stick.  Looks like most areas get <0.2" QPF and it's spread out over a long period of time.  It would seem to be non-accumulating light snow for anyone outside the mountains, at best, and more likely mixed precip or just light rain/drizzle.

 

Of course, it will change and I, for one, am certainly glad to see the shift tonight.  It sure beats looking at a cutter on the models.

[superjames1992]

The 00z EPS mean looks more Miller Aish compared to the 12z EPS mean.  There's still definitely some members sending it inland based on hr 180, but by hr 192 the mean SLP track is roughly over Savannah, GA.  I would expect to see the members showing wintry precip to rise in number (those meteograms don't come out until later, though).

[Tacoma]

From everything I'm reading doesn't seem like we're going to get into any good snowstorm threats until after the first of the year.    

 

 

CLIMO

 

[burgertime]

Good PBP last night guys! Looking at 5h on the Euro it's a little weird. You have a lot of northern energy flying around and our low to the north scoots out at the last second which allows our energy in the south to take the path of least resistance and float north, again this happens at the last second so timing is key. It does look like the Euro has a better handle on this aloft than the GFS does. I would expect one of three looks on the Euro at 12z. If that low to the north moves out earlier we'll end up with the strung out look of the GFS. If that low to the north sticks around longer our shortwave should get stronger and a tick faster as it rolls east which will give a much better look for cold and wintry weather for our area. The third is if that northern branch can hook up with the southern branch. If that happens of course it's all about timing as to if it's fireworks or not. Bad thing about that energy floating around to our north is also the fact that low could set up shop in the GL stopping any cold air flow. Long story short, while the percentage is low for winter weather there is a chance, the models will be in "madness" mode over the next couple of days with so much going on. Only time will tell if someone can cash in or not in the southeast. 

[burgertime]

From everything I'm reading doesn't seem like we're going to get into any good snowstorm threats until after the first of the year.    

 

 

CLIMO

 

 

I think you guys are still very much in the game on this. It's if GA/NC/SC Piedmont can get in on it as well.

[FallsLake]

I think you guys are still very much in the game on this. It's if GA/NC/SC Piedmont can get in on it as well.

It will take the perfect setup. looking at the 6z GFS you would think there would be a stronger CAD with more of the low level cold feed.  

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=168ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_168_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141213+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

[packbacker]

It will take the perfect setup. looking at the 6z GFS you would think there would be a stronger CAD with more of the low level cold feed.  

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=168ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_168_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141213+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

Yes, the 50/50 hung around longer and the 6z GFS was further SE, still cuts though.