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Wintry/Severe/Normal Storm threat 12/19-21

deltadog03

By deltadog03,
in Southeastern States

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deltadog03

deltadog03

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Delta in the back of my mind on a fast track to the front, I am wondering if the Christmas eve storm winds up being the monster it's being m doled as now. We need that bugger to be a beast and exit off new england, then we are all gonna be very happy campers.

I agree...don't look now, but the GFS is as amped up for it this run as it was at 12z.  Just a strong cold front through but nothing super.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

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6z NAM and GFS came in a little bit cooler for the 850s and the low level dew points; bad news is there is now very little precip. for areas that could get something wintery.  Looks to have shifted the precip southward towards GA and decreased totals. Really nothing for my area (N. NC). Big contrast to just yesterday where it was looking like 2-3 days of rain with temps in the 30s.

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HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

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6z NAM and GFS came in a little bit cooler for the 850s and the low level dew points; bad news is there is now very little precip. for areas that could get something wintery.  Looks to have shifted the precip southward towards GA and decreased totals. Really nothing for my area (N. NC). Big contrast to just yesterday where it was looking like 2-3 days of rain with temps in the 30s.

 

 

and the 12Z NAM came in dry for everyone in North Carolina, with maybe a tenth of liquid for portions of the South Carolina midlands.  Not only was it dry for NC, but everyone in New England, DC and north, also gets nothing.

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wncsnow

wncsnow

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The NAM, GFS, and Euro still seem insistent on some light precip in the NC Piedmont and now seem to be cold enough for snow.  Maybe we can get a flizzard out of this?  It's going to be hard, but maybe not impossible.

 

I was just thinking the same thing.. the NAM looks the most robust (if you call .10 robust) but its something to watch and hopefully a little harbinger of things to come.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

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This storm threat went to pots in so many ways, yet however some of us came alot closer than we realized. My wetbulb is sitting on 32-33 under a few stars and clouds showing up with a decent little NE Breeze. Radar looks so inviting, but like Robert and the models say it's fools gold. Just observing conditions tonight it's amazing that lack of precip will be the dagger as opposed to temps.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

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This storm threat went to pots in so many ways, yet however some of us came alot closer than we realized. My wetbulb is sitting on 32-33 under a few stars and clouds showing up with a decent little NE Breeze. Radar looks so inviting, but like Robert and the models say it's fools gold. Just observing conditions tonight it's amazing that lack of precip will be the dagger as opposed to temps.

 

I remember watching the January 2011 storm that pounded GA/SC/etc. and thinking there's no way that can fall apart before it got here!  Little did I know, that beast of a storm ended up dropping a measly inch or so.  It sucks.  The radar does look interesting, but the latest NAM didn't even give us a trace.  I would still think we have a chance of some flurries/drizzle, though.

 

Looks like the HRRR brings through a band of precip at about 5 AM with temperatures in the mid-30s.

 

The RAP looks kind of juicy... but then again, it's the RAP and its job is to deceive us and give us false hope.

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WxBlue

WxBlue

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Shoot... the GFS gives most of WNC .10 :santa: It will be nice to see snow falling If nothing else.. it was certainly odd seeing 4 inches on the ground on November 1st in Asheville..

 

Really, I'm just happy with what we got at this point. It's giving me more patience than usual this winter, which is a good thing with pattern remaining delayed.

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wncsnow

wncsnow

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Really, I'm just happy with what we got at this point. It's giving me more patience than usual this winter, which is a good thing with pattern remaining delayed.

 

Yea even though we had zilch at my house, a nice short trip to Asheville was a winter wonderland, and on thanksgiving going across Sam's gap was nice with 3-4 inches on the ground. I think someone in the Balsams or smokies could get an inch out of this

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

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Big Frosty looking on units 850 map you are currently safely below 0 850. James is sitting right on the line and me and burns are like a .0000001 +

I would like to see a few flurries in the morning, I've got to take my boy to shooting practice at 9 in the morning. hope it's a few flakes flying! I'll be watching real close :snowwindow:

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WxBlue

WxBlue

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Yea even though we had zilch at my house, a nice short trip to Asheville was a winter wonderland, and on thanksgiving going across Sam's gap was nice with 3-4 inches on the ground. I think someone in the Balsams or smokies could get an inch out of this

 

Sam's Gap was under 6 inches of snow when me and my buddies from UNCC went sledding in the area after our Carvers Gap hike on November 1st. I felt like a child again that day :)

 

Agree with your Smokies/Balsams comment. I can't wait to get back to WNC so I don't have to worry about 540 line as much.

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dsaur

dsaur

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This storm threat went to pots in so many ways, yet however some of us came alot closer than we realized. My wetbulb is sitting on 32-33 under a few stars and clouds showing up with a decent little NE Breeze. Radar looks so inviting, but like Robert and the models say it's fools gold. Just observing conditions tonight it's amazing that lack of precip will be the dagger as opposed to temps.

I'm actually getting some decent light rain.  If it was 34 instead of 44 I'd stay up a while.  Lot more rain than I've gotten all month, so I'm encouraged since I always say see what the rain does in winter, and worry about the cold later :)  I've not seen many torches when it was wet a lot.  I've seen a lot of 33 and rain, but very little 65 and rain in Dec, or Jan.  If the rains come, the cold air will follow.  If the long range rains verify then the cold will be there too.  And finally I'm actually getting the kind of rain Goofy said I would.  Sure, it's only .1 or so, but what the heck, it beats .002, which is what I've been getting, lol.  And Goofy said I'd see a tenth or a quarter.  All the other rain this month has stopped at the Ala line, but this actually made it here.  Goofy has some more rain out ahead, so we'll see.  If that starts to verify, then I'll start thinking there might be some fun in Jan. and Feb. Rain running underneath always gets my attention, but it's only useful if it come north to meet the cold.  The 0 line in Jacksonville, and the rain in Daytona doesn't do squat for me.   Might work for Papst Blue over in Gainesville though, lol.  Tony

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FallsLake

FallsLake

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Looking at the latest RAP it would show the northern half of NC(maybe into the central coastal plain) would have a chance of some snow showers.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Frap%2F10%2Frap_namer_007_precip_p01.gif&model=rap&area=namer&storm=&cycle=10&param=precip_p01&fhr=007&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141220+10+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

 

All we can do is hope...

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