Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Wintry/Severe/Normal Storm threat 12/19-21

deltadog03

By deltadog03,
in Southeastern States

Recommended Posts

deltadog03

deltadog03

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Interestingly enough every model is starting to pick up on the CAD...that high floats around on every model. I think that really needs to be watched, it wouldn't be the first time a good CAD setup sneaked in before. I agree though Delta all of the energy should begin getting sampled well tomorrow so this could still change.

I agree bud. I actually think that is gonna sneak in there

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 764
  • Created
  • Last Reply
HurricaneTracker

HurricaneTracker

Posted
Posted

Euro looks miserable on Sat/Sun...drizzle/light rain with temps in the mid/upper 30's for a lot of NC.

 

In fact it doesn't get above 40F on Fri/Sat/Sun.

 

Compared to the Euro 00Z run from last night, this new run is absolute night and day difference.  Old runs had the low moving off or up the coast leaving most of NC dry Sunday.  Now, the 12Z Euro has what appears to be upslope-induced precipitation over the wedge on all day Sunday.  This has HUGE changes for the Christmas Day forecast as well, which now looks massively wet and incredibly warm for the entire eastern half of the country.  Wow what a change - and a big change at that for the Euro.  I'm speechless.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
WSNC

WSNC

Posted
Posted

Compared to the Euro 00Z run from last night, this new run is absolute night and day difference.  Old runs had the low moving off or up the coast leaving most of NC dry Sunday.  Now, the 12Z Euro has what appears to be upslope-induced precipitation over the wedge on all day Sunday.  This has HUGE changes for the Christmas Day forecast as well, which now looks massively wet and incredibly warm for the entire eastern half of the country.  Wow what a change - and a big change at that for the Euro.  I'm speechless.

Looks identical to the para GFS.  Northern NC mountains could be in for a good NWFS event Xmas eve. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

The 12z EPS mean doesn't have >2" of fantasy snow for anyone, not even the mountains.  No precip really gets into the Mid-Atlantic at all.  Looking at the mean MSLP, you can't even really tell there's a storm.  What a change from two days ago when the ensembles were gung-ho for a monstrous storm... :lol:

 

On the "positive" side, the EPS mean is pretty gung-ho about our rainstorm before Christmas.  :gun_bandana:  :sun:

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Pilotwx

Pilotwx

Posted
Posted

We may be looking at a situation where the PAC Jet placement is just In the right place this winter for us in the south maybe just a couple of degrees to warm and for snow. Those in DC on north maybe game on . I have been watching the high pressure placement and it has been further north each time . Hope I am wrong , lot of winter still to come

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
Posted

We may be looking at a situation where the PAC Jet placement is just In the right place this winter for us in the south maybe just a couple of degrees to warm and for snow. Those in DC on north maybe game on . I have been watching the high pressure placement and it has been further north each time . Hope I am wrong , lot of winter still to come

Hey buddy, what's happening? Models are just all over the place.... I've never seen such a huge turn around on Euro from 0z to 12z It's was giving us .70qpf for days for Saturday! 12z today it shows .06 just lol is all you can say!!! Merry Christmas, and enjoy your warm rain Christmas eve!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Yep she looks pretty juicy, 850 line right on NC/Va. border.

Looks close. It will be interesting to see if we an get a little better feed of cold/dry air.

 

850s:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_078_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=078&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141217+18+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
Posted

Maybe we can catch a good break for once? But I doubt it! lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
Posted

Give me a couple of snow flakes or a sleet shower and I'll call it a win.

RNK left me a little hope!  For a flake or pellet.... lol

 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE

EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE

OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE

WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY...RAIN WITH SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN

THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. COOLER. NEAR

STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION

90 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN A

CHANCE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR STEADY

TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

That stinking Euro got me sucked in again, for several days was showing snow or at least a mix for here... 12z today it went to nothing this weekend 0.06 of drizzle and not even close to freezing at that? WOW what a change...... The KING :whistle: lol

As Eddie says the Euro has a little bit of Mississippi hound in him. Everyonce in a while he likes to get hold of your leg. When he does the best thing to do is just let him go on and finish his business. Then he'll get back to normal.

That stinking Euro got me sucked in again, for several days was showing snow or at least a mix for here... 12z today it went to nothing this weekend 0.06 of drizzle and not even close to freezing at that? WOW what a change...... The KING :whistle: lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
Posted

As Eddie says the Euro has a little bit of Mississippi hound in him. Everyonce in a while he likes to get hold of your leg. When he does the best thing to do is just let him go on and finish his business. Then he'll get back to normal.

18z NAM was pretty wet and cold, Now 0z NAM has almost nothing at all? lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...