Wintry/Severe/Normal Storm threat 12/19-21

[franklin NCwx]

Euro ensembles suggest miller b.

[FallsLake]

Thank you, I appreciate it.  I still feel like something is going to happen over the SE.  Is it SVR wx or wintry, or both...Models a little all over the place.

Even the GFS looks like it's not far off. Still far out(time wise) and I think this could easily trend in our favor.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=192ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_192_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141212+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

[superjames1992]

Someone post a Blizzard of '96 analog, please.

[NRVwxfan.]

It would be nice if we got anything at this point. Weather has been really boring for a while now. Btw, great video, and Facebook page.

[Jon]

Someone post a Blizzard of '96 analog, please.

At 500mb? Like an anomaly map or do you want temperatures or what?

[deltadog03]

EURO has an early look of maybe looking like the 12z run from yesterday.  Out to 18z TUE.  HR102 

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

Chris Justus, around noon, posted a pretty good synopsis on the event, in a video on his Facebook page. He's remaining transparent like us all, but still informative. I like him as a met.

 

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=702471986516828

[deltadog03]

Thru 12z WED, HR 120 this is going to be different than the 00z run last night.  Looks** similiar to yesterdays 12z run so far.  The upper low is pushing into the NE and NOT over MN/Western GL

[Wow]

Yeah the ULL over the SW is much farther south than the 0z and the NE trough is hanging back at 156 hrs.  Looks pretty good at this point in time.

[packbacker]

Pretty big changes from the 0z run, everything is further south through 168. Might not matter but interesting.

[superjames1992]

At 500mb? Like an anomaly map or do you want temperatures or what?

I was kidding. It seems like every time a Miller B is on the table we get Blizzard of '96 comparisons.

[deltadog03]

This run might be good...through 12z FRI, HR 168, the differences with the 00z run are HUGE.  The upper low is over El Paso and moving east.  Closed ridge over MN, confluence over NE and a Sprawling high that is starting to get into the CAD areas.

[Wow]

I like the look of this, although 50/50 looks like it's ready to bolt.  850mb temps are marginal but plenty of cold to work with over the NE.

 

[packbacker]

Panhandle/OK getting smoked at 180.

[Jon]

I was kidding. It seems like every time a Miller B is on the table we get Blizzard of '96 comparisons.

oh haha wow that went right over my head, I was prepping some images for you dang it. :lmao:

[Wow]

Panhandle/OK getting smoked at 180.

 

OKC getting at least a foot there

[packbacker]

It's cutting, HP slides out

[Wow]

It's cutting, HP slides out

 

Held the ULL back over the SW too long... 50/50 is outta there by the time it's roiling past TX.  Going to be tricky with the split flow going on. Placement of the polar and Sub-tropic waves are critical.

[Jon]

It's cutting, HP slides out

yeah I think this one is over. This cutting look isn't anything we're not used to seeing early on in winter, I'd take this over any other solution IMO. I have hope for the Christmas system though.

[deltadog03]

Looks like its heading for the lakes on this run.. Different evolution for sure.  Nice snow storm over the Southern plains.  Some wedging by 12z sat, and 2m temps are showing low 30's to near Freezing over NC, qpf trying to get in there at that time.  Looks like maybe some SVR setup with this.

[Jon]

Held the ULL back over the SW too long... 50/50 is outta there by the time it's roiling past TX.

Yep, that seems to be the trend in the modeling lately...too slow and it just cuts...no 50/50 no fun for us.

[packbacker]

Held the ULL back over the SW too long... 50/50 is outta there by the time it's roiling past TX.

It's going to take perfect timing for this not to cut. Nice winter storm for central US.

[mackerel_sky]

Chris Justus, around noon, posted a pretty good synopsis on the event, in a video on his Facebook page. He's remaining transparent like us all, but still informative. I like him as a met.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=702471986516828

+1. Best local tv met in our area, hands down!

[packbacker]

More rain for the folks that find that exciting.

[superjames1992]

oh haha wow that went right over my head, I was prepping some images for you dang it. :lmao:

Haha, well, if it is actually a legitimate analog, then that's fine, too.

Pretty sure if we correct for the Euro's bias of holding energy back and run it through the unskewer, that run was a repeat of January 1987, though.

[Wow]

It's going to take perfect timing for this not to cut. Nice winter storm for central US.

 

ULL needs to speed up so at 168 hrs it needs to be leaving TX rather than entering it.  Can we chalk it up to the old Euro bias of holding energy back over the SW?  

 

[superjames1992]

More rain for the folks that find that exciting.

Cold rain is best rain.

[deltadog03]

Looks like there could be some icing issues over NC though.  2m temps are cold enough.  I will say this, we might have to sacrifice this one, to make room for the other system making its way onshore over CA.  That could be the Christmas, or right around there, storm that affects us.  I think its nice and cold, at least at 2m behind this storm.  

[downeastnc]

ULL needs to speed up so at 168 hrs it needs to be leaving TX rather than entering it.  Can we chalk it up to the old Euro bias of holding energy back over the SW?  

 

 

 

Yeah I was about to ask if that bias still applied with all the new versions of all the models the last few years its kinda screwed me up as to which biases are still there etc.....at least with the old versions I kinda knew how to read between the lines now its not so easy....

[Wow]

Looks like there could be some icing issues over NC though.  2m temps are cold enough.  I will say this, we might have to sacrifice this one, to make room for the other system making its way onshore over CA.  That could be the Christmas, or right around there, storm that affects us.  I think its nice and cold, at least at 2m behind this storm.  

 

DT has claimed that one as the storm to watch.  We'll see.   Lacking quite a bit of cold air by then, however.