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Wintry/Severe/Normal Storm threat 12/19-21

deltadog03

By deltadog03,
in Southeastern States

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

EURO is going to be further NW this run.  Low looks like its starting to cut up into MS.

 

What do you think of that 1028 high floating around in NY...that's an interesting twist. You can see the CAD signature showing up on the Euro because of it. This run is kind of a mix between 12z and 00z from last night. 

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deltadog03

deltadog03

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What do you think of that 1028 high floating around in NY...that's an interesting twist. You can see the CAD signature showing up on the Euro because of it. This run is kind of a mix between 12z and 00z from last night. 

I agree, its a mix of the 2 for sure. It really tells me, and I can't believe Im saying this, but it makes sense..the euro went a little toward the strung out GFS.  The GFS is to strung out, and is still wrong, but I am starting to wonder if the high energy bundled ball of craziness is off the table for now.  It looks like there will be some Icing issues over WNC no doubt.

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burgertime

burgertime

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I agree, its a mix of the 2 for sure. It really tells me, and I can't believe Im saying this, but it makes sense..the euro went a little toward the strung out GFS.  The GFS is to strung out, and is still wrong, but I am starting to wonder if the high energy bundled ball of craziness is off the table for now.  It looks like there will be some Icing issues over WNC no doubt.

 

Euro never really links up with that energy in the northern branch which helps dampen it out. That's a wild card that models won't have a handle on until about 2 days out. 

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deltadog03

deltadog03

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Euro never really links up with that energy in the northern branch which helps dampen it out. That's a wild card that models won't have a handle on until about 2 days out. 

I agree, that will be a super wild card.  I just don't like how the euro is slowly decoupling everything.  In a way its a step toward the faster GFS and CMC but not really.  If that makes sense.  I think the euro will be closer to being right, but IMO the cutter solutions are dead wrong.  I almost think this isn't climbing the coast...maybe ENS will show the same?

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Ollie Williams

Ollie Williams

Posted
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DT's thoughts from the MA thread ...

 

 

 

One of the reasons why the system sliding off the Carolina Coast and bringiS  a significant snowstorm to Western North Carolina and Virginia and eastern portions of West Virginia...  iIs that there is a upstream feature or piece of energy that is located over California Nevada  on 12/ 20.  

The   building Ridge  in the jet stream  towards the British Columbia Coast  FORCES  the  weak shortwave over CAL. NV to amplify and move more rapidly to the east.  This in turn acts as an upstream "kicker "   which prevents the system coming up from Alabama and Georgia to make a sharp turn up the coast.

 
As a result the track is along the Carolina Coast which is   t good snowstorm that for eastern  WVA  Virginia  mrns of Western NC but bad for everybody north of DC

 

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
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Man, frustrating run.  Basically an ideal track here (actually, an ideal track is probably a little further off the coast), but not enough cold air to work with.  Instead, we get a rainstorm with temperatures in the 33-34 range and 850s of +1C...  Pretty "weak" storm, too, considering what the Euro has been tossing around.

 

We'll see.  We're still a ways off, but a weak storm like that isn't going to cut it without cold air in place, IMO.

 

Of course, the WB clown spits out 6" of magic snow somehow.  :weenie:  :lol: (I guess it could possible be sleet, though I doubt it... but I can't tell since I don't have soundings)

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superjames1992

superjames1992

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What's got me worried about ice is that you get the CAD setting up just before the system hits. That would help lock in that cold and then with the high for the most part staying in place it'll have a continuous cold air feed. That needs to be watched. 

 

FWIW, the Euro has pretty good timing for that, too, with clouds rolling in prior to dawn during the dead of night.

 

That being said, it's not cold enough verbatim.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
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It looks VERY close for yall, James...I mean super close.  I think you have to deal with ice issues.  I think the weaker solutions is going to end up being correct..

 

We're apparently really good at ice storms again these days.  We sucked at them for about a decade, but as of last winter we're crankin' up the CAD and cranking out ice storms no matter the month.

 

Our last major ice storm (March 6-7, 2014) came from a Miller A, too!

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Ollie Williams

Ollie Williams

Posted
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We're apparently really good at ice storms again these days.  We sucked at them for about a decade, but as of last winter we're crankin' up the CAD and cranking out ice storms no matter the month.

 

Our last major ice storm (March 6-7, 2014) came from a Miller A, too!

It appears CAD will be a factor this winter.  I don't like the icy look  :yikes:

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
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It appears CAD will be a factor this winter.  I don't like the icy look  :yikes:

 

Yeah, but that's what happens when you live where we do. :)

 

Looks like the Euro ENS are folding to the operational to some degree with more of a Miller A look and a much stronger HP in the NE (pretty much had none before).  The LP is also weaker than the prior mean.

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PackGrad05

PackGrad05

Posted
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I'm wondering if any advisories/warnings will be issued for SW VA and WV later this week before the weekend...

Lots of folks, including myself, are traveling that way on Saturday and I wish the models would get a better handle on exactly what is going to happen...

 

I worry about 77 through SW VA and the turnpike through WV.

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burrel2

burrel2

Posted
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I could see this storm trending into a more significant icing threat, especially for the NC foothills. The high pressure is in a pretty good spot on most of the models. I think they will correct colder at the surface over the next couple days if they can hang on to that high position.  If the high could trend a few mb stronger it could really make things interesting.  

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packbacker

packbacker

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Yeah, but that's what happens when you live where we do. :)

 

Looks like the Euro ENS are folding to the operational to some degree with more of a Miller A look and a much stronger HP in the NE (pretty much had none before).  The LP is also weaker than the prior mean.

 

Looking at the members looks like several were SE but also a few way NW which probably skews the mean.  Still looks promising for you guys to see something wintery out of this. 

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
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I think as RAH stated last night we need to monitor the strength and placement of the high. As we all know the models have done a poor job with CAD setups in the past and this may trend better for many of us in the next couple of days. But, I would think a major winter event is probably not going to happen. I would call win if we get a little sleet/freezing rain to start the event.

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

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I agree, that will be a super wild card.  I just don't like how the euro is slowly decoupling everything.  In a way its a step toward the faster GFS and CMC but not really.  If that makes sense.  I think the euro will be closer to being right, but IMO the cutter solutions are dead wrong.  I almost think this isn't climbing the coast...maybe ENS will show the same?

I just thought it was starting to correct it's bias of holding back energy    ;)   I don't think it will climb the coast either  ;) 

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packbacker

packbacker

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Don't look now, but the GFS is slooooowly trying folks.  More of a "system" as it rolls through the SE.  Rain for everyone if this is correct. Even the mountains. 

 

The para was definitely Euro like but this system sure is starting to weaken on all the models.  Bummer, was hoping atleast the western areas would get hit good.  Hopefully it perks up a bit in the next few runs.

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burgertime

burgertime

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Interestingly enough it seems like the models are starting to pick up on the CAD....CMC has a weak one with a 1024 H in NY. GFS is late like the CMC with a weak High. GFS PARA flirts with a 1028. GEFS has a 1024 in the area. All of them are a little late with the timing but again it should be watched especially if the Euro looks like it did last night. Could see a big threat for ice if so. 

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Lowpressure

Lowpressure

Posted
Posted

Interestingly enough it seems like the models are starting to pick up on the CAD....CMC has a weak one with a 1024 H in NY. GFS is late like the CMC with a weak High. GFS PARA flirts with a 1028. GEFS has a 1024 in the area. All of them are a little late with the timing but again it should be watched especially if the Euro looks like it did last night. Could see a big threat for ice if so. 

Like to see a big higher than 1024-1028. That range rarely seems to get in done, at least this far south.

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packbacker

packbacker

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Interestingly enough it seems like the models are starting to pick up on the CAD....CMC has a weak one with a 1024 H in NY. GFS is late like the CMC with a weak High. GFS PARA flirts with a 1028. GEFS has a 1024 in the area. All of them are a little late with the timing but again it should be watched especially if the Euro looks like it did last night. Could see a big threat for ice if so. 

 

CMC has a some serious CAD going on...

post-0-0-09033300-1418750390_thumb.png

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