Wintry/Severe/Normal Storm threat 12/19-21

[deltadog03]

I have a feeling that tells me the OP run was a little too good to be true.  Not always, but the OP runs w/o ENS support tell me that its a little out there if you will.  I still favor something back further NW.. I hope not, but thats what I thinking as of now.

[BIG FROSTY]

I'm liking my forecast as of now! Of course it will change many times before Saturday!!! lol  

 

 

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SNOW AND RAIN LIKELY...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
70 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...SNOW AND RAIN. COOLER. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE
MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 30S.
CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT

[deltadog03]

[POWERSTROKE]

  On 12/15/2014 at 7:09 PM, packbacker said:

Not surprising, JB thinks it's to far south, as does DT.

He says he thinks to far south but said could change. If you look at Robert and Allan said the last few days the same. Too early to jump on it. We all know it will change 5 or more times before it happens. If it does

[franklin NCwx]

In the end I think it's a killer screw for us big hit for mid atlantic.

[No snow for you]

  On 12/16/2014 at 1:26 AM, franklin NCwx said:

In the end I think it's a killer screw for us big hit for mid atlantic.

That would help with the snow pack and hopefully help for the Christmas Storm or later. 

[Pilotwx]

I think that the low will be west of where it is right now . The ridge that has been responsible for our warmer temps is going to need to be knocked down to allow for the low to come east to give us snow . Keep checking the high to north that will give u the clues you need

[NCSNOW]

The oz Nam 84hr and 12z Euro op 96hr 500mb are basically a carbon copy of each other.

[deltadog03]

00z GFS rolling in now, I have a new 90 second forecast *mostly for Mid GA* and a new model/trends video up online.  I am really interested to see where the models go with tonights runs.  Thanks for all the new likes everyone!  Keep them coming please.  

 

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Wxmanchris/690966551001476?ref=hl

[deltadog03]

GFS still taking this into the abyss....just implodes all the energy.

[burgertime]

  On 12/16/2014 at 4:05 AM, deltadog03 said:

GFS still taking this into the abyss....just implodes all the energy.

 

It's got it's solution and it's latching on all other models be damned. GFS PARA looks closer to what the Euro is cooking. 

[TeleConnectSnow]

I don't think the PARA looks as good this run so far through 102.

[franklin NCwx]

At least it's not a cutter.

[packbacker]

  On 12/16/2014 at 4:07 AM, burgertime said:

It's got it's solution and it's latching on all other models be damned. GFS PARA looks closer to what the Euro is cooking.

Agreed, slides the HP out quicker though. H5 vort tracks down NC/SC line.

[burgertime]

  On 12/16/2014 at 4:09 AM, TeleConnectSnow said:

I don't think the PARA looks as good this run so far through 102.

 

Sorry what I should have said was that it looks closer to a Miller B. I don't buy the 12z Euro Miller A run. 

[TeleConnectSnow]

Both GFS models look like blah

[deltadog03]

Ya, the GFS is still on the good drugs right now.  I am assuming it will be doing that until prolly WED  It may come around then.

[TeleConnectSnow]

The GFS para did come around at 12z/18z, but at 00z it has come back to the OTS look and not robust at all. I am having second thoughts on if we will actually see a big storm, or just a weak low sliding off the coast.

[Disc]

0z para. 

 

EDIT: Removed the snow map because it's rubbish. 850s are blazing.

 

.

[superjames1992]

UKMET and GGEM look southern sliderish from what I can tell... (so far)

[burgertime]

Yep CMC looks more Miller Aish but no real cold air to work with. 

[superjames1992]

  On 12/16/2014 at 4:50 AM, burgertime said:

Yep CMC looks more Miller Aish but no real cold air to work with.

Yeah, it's a weak, strung out storm. We're probably going to need a stronger storm like the Euro to have a chance.

I'm starting to wonder if the GFS isn't totally crazy with being weak and strung-out...

[deltadog03]

  On 12/16/2014 at 4:57 AM, superjames1992 said:

Yeah, it's a weak, strung out storm. We're probably going to need a stronger storm like the Euro to have a chance.

I'm starting to wonder if the GFS isn't totally crazy with being weak and strung-out...

Well, I think tonights run will be super telling.  It will tell me if it comes in weaker tonight, that the GFS might be strung out, but for a reason.

[deltadog03]

EURO through hour 66, 18z thur is stronger and further S with the southern energy.  The "leading" piece is over the OV and helping the NE trof/50/50.

[deltadog03]

by 6z friday the heights are lower across the SE.  H5 is a bit further south, but the northern piece is a little stronger.

[burgertime]

  On 12/16/2014 at 6:10 AM, deltadog03 said:

by 6z friday the heights are lower across the SE.  H5 is a bit further south, but the northern piece is a little stronger.

 

Looks to me like that vortex in the north is further northeast vs. 12z. Probably going to see our low get pulled further northwest vs. the 12z run. 

[burgertime]

12z had the low/vortex out to hour 126...on the 00z it's scooting out by hour 90. 

[deltadog03]

EURO is going to be further NW this run.  Low looks like its starting to cut up into MS.

[burgertime]

Euro was very close to a nice CAD setup there for a minute. 

[deltadog03]

  On 12/16/2014 at 6:19 AM, burgertime said:

Euro was very close to a nice CAD setup there for a minute. 

agreed...I thought it was going to do so.  SFC low is near gulfport by 12z sat heading east.  MAybe snows just north of memphis?