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Wintry/Severe/Normal Storm threat 12/19-21

deltadog03

By deltadog03,
in Southeastern States

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
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Bearer of bad news...haha JK..I would still caution everyone though, this is a first for this solution. Do I buy it, Im interested..yes. Its such a break from continentality though. I guess tonights 00z will be telling.

yeah huge change at 500 compared to last run 50/50 hangs on longer this run. It looks like the ukie now.
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RONALD B

RONALD B

Posted
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Bearer of bad news...haha  JK..I would still caution everyone though, this is a first for this solution.  Do I buy it, Im interested..yes.  Its such a break from continentality though.  I guess tonights 00z will be telling.  

the trend was on last night too today I said this want over !

 

2m's collapse as the SLP tracks north off the coast, this is legit snow per the model

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Jon

Jon

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I'd caution everyone even if they wanted to bank on this solution...850's suck until the low is off the coast and headed out. Outside of what the low generates somehow at 1004mb off of wilmington, the 0C line is in the foothills...by the time the low bombs off HAT at 997, 850's fill in RDU to CLT and west, but most of the moisture has fallen already. So for people west of the foothills, looking at a snowfall map isn't a wise choice here IMO. Haven't looked at soundings but still not cold enough for Central NC. As I've and others have mentioned, some said the bomb wouldn't help with temps but it's obvious it does somewhat. I think we still need a stronger storm here to get Central NC in the action. The snow map on wxbell outside of the foothills I don't buy at all.

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Shawn

Shawn

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For the 12z Euro.. the cold air really comes rushing in.. but not quite sure if it's in time for the main precip.  My gut would say the ones under the comma would get some +SN, 925mb even gets cold in areas.. even some of SC is borderline at 850/925 at points.  Track is everything.

 

The individual ensembles will be good to look at in this situation.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
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I'd caution everyone even if they wanted to bank on this solution...850's suck until the low is off the coast and headed out. Outside of what the low generates somehow at 1004mb off of wilmington, the 0C line is in the foothills...by the time the low bombs off HAT at 997, 850's fill in RDU to CLT and west, but most of the moisture has fallen already. So for people west of the foothills, looking at a snowfall map isn't a wise choice here IMO. Haven't looked at soundings but still not cold enough for Central NC. As I've and others have mentioned, some said the bomb wouldn't help with temps but it's obvious it does somewhat. I think we still need a stronger storm here to get Central NC in the action. The snow map on wxbell outside of the foothills I don't buy at all.

 

Per the model run, yes the first part of the storm is rain, but per the model run there is plenty of precip that falls as legit snow (850 and 2m below 0) for central NC.

 

Edit:  This is per the model, I don't think this will happen either.

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rduwx

rduwx

Posted
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I'd caution everyone even if they wanted to bank on this solution...850's suck until the low is off the coast and headed out. Outside of what the low generates somehow at 1004mb off of wilmington, the 0C line is in the foothills...by the time the low bombs off HAT at 997, 850's fill in RDU to CLT and west, but most of the moisture has fallen already. So for people west of the foothills, looking at a snowfall map isn't a wise choice here IMO. Haven't looked at soundings but still not cold enough for Central NC. As I've and others have mentioned, some said the bomb wouldn't help with temps but it's obvious it does somewhat. I think we still need a stronger storm here to get Central NC in the action. The snow map on wxbell outside of the foothills I don't buy at all.

 

I agree Jon.  I would like to see it colder.

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Jon

Jon

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Per the model run, yes the first part of the storm is rain, but per the model run there is plenty of precip that falls as legit snow (850 and 2m below 0) for central NC.

what is plenty of precip and what is central NC (north? little bit east of GSO?) if you can be more specific I don't have the soundings...

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deltadog03

deltadog03

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With that southern branch piece weaker, it will keep it either A) digging further SE or B) at least moving East and not trying to cut up.  I have a feeling the Southern piece will be the weaker of the 2 pieces.  It makes me a little nervous that either again, A) the EURO is sniffing out a better storm for everyone. OR B) its starting to loose the storm.  My guess is its NOT looking it at all, and the GFS needs to play catch up...as usual.  

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