Wintry/Severe/Normal Storm threat 12/19-21

[burgertime]

12z GFS running and the differences are just LAUGHABLE at 12z THUR at H5 vs the EURO.  GFS is strung out like a junkie.  LOL  EURO more consolidated with the southern energy into N Mexico.  No way in You know what that will shouldn't just come eastward.

 

Beat me to it. What a mess at 5h. Energy is all strewn out. Mark my words this will somehow end up like the Euro with that northern energy coming in on the backside to energize the southern energy. 

[deltadog03]

By 12z FRI the diff. with the 2 models again is just amazing.  Its either going to score the coup or its going to be wrong again!  I shouldn't hammer it as much, but goodness....We shall see where this run ends up, but it won't be even CLOSE to the king.

[deltadog03]

Beat me to it. What a mess at 5h. Energy is all strewn out. Mark my words this will somehow end up like the Euro with that northern energy coming in on the backside to energize the southern energy. 

I fully agree.  I will say that I am very impressed with how the NWS, since IMO, they have the ultimate voice when people want to figure out the weather, talks about the EURO a lot now.  It used to be so taboo to talk about how the GFS isn't doing what the EURO is...etc.   Anyone from NWS can chime in here, but do yall still get "graded" on verification scores with the GFS (products)?

[burgertime]

GFS is only 200 miles south  of the 6z run and weak as ****. 

[burgertime]

Low goes from roughly ATL - CLT - MYB....what a difference six hours make. 

[tnweathernut]

It's more miller b. The op and ensembles take the low to northern Alabama then transfer.

Interesting, as I found a post from Wes (usedtobe) in the MidAtlantic forum that said this.............

 

"Anyway, almost all the euro ens members have the miller a look."

[packfan98]

Does this mean the big cutter is off the table?

[burgertime]

Does this mean the big cutter is off the table?

 

Looking like it. My guess is GFS is switching over to the Euro solution but isn't handling the shortwave in the west well. I mean it could end up like the GFS but hard to argue against the Euro...and again this was a big jump towards the Euro IMO. 

[tnweathernut]

Looking like it. My guess is GFS is switching over to the Euro solution but isn't handling the shortwave in the west well. I mean it could end up like the GFS but hard to argue against the Euro...and again this was a big jump towards the Euro IMO. 

Yes, no doubt about it.

[burgertime]

GFS PARA refuses to let go of an OV storm. Looks like it's about to link up with some northern energy and create a huge amped up mess for the north. 

[deltadog03]

I honestly don't know what to say...Im just amazed how much difference there is btwn these models.  I know there usually is, and this is the WORST period for the GFS, but holy heck batman.  They are WORLDS apart.

[packbacker]

GFS PARA refuses to let go of an OV storm. Looks like it's about to link up with some northern energy and create a huge amped up mess for the north. 

 

Looks pretty much like the Euro, will see.

[burgertime]

Looks pretty much like the Euro, will see.

 

Yea dampens out as some energy gets held back. Like Chris said it's amazing how different the Euro and GFS are right now.

[WxBlue]

I honestly don't know what to say...Im just amazed how much difference there is btwn these models.  I know there usually is, and this is the WORST period for the GFS, but holy heck batman.  They are WORLDS apart.

 

No kidding. ECMWF saw all of this happening for few days now and both regular GFS and Para-GFS are *finally* getting the hint, although still not fully there. It's like trying to talk to a drunk...

 

EDIT: Para-GFS look very ECMWF-ish with the transfer of low southeast.

[burgertime]

CMC looks like it's finally getting a clue. Looking closer to the Euro out to 92....don't have access to 5h though yet so hard to tell. 

[deltadog03]

CMC is trying, Jon, nothing like the EURO, but getting closer to it..GFS is really in a land of its own.

[Jon]

CMC looks like it's finally getting a clue. Looking closer to the Euro out to 92....don't have access to 5h though yet so hard to tell. 

yeah 1009mb low off coast of NC at 132, 994mb off coast of MA/PA 144 mountain snow, some zr...nothing inland.

[packfan98]

Para GFS clown map via JB on twitter:

[Jon]

Update from NWS RAH, hopefully sums up some stuff for you guys in Central NC: http://youtu.be/wFHAahzbIu4?t=2m29s

[franklin NCwx]

Interesting, as I found a post from Wes (usedtobe) in the MidAtlantic forum that said this.............

"Anyway, almost all the euro ens members have the miller a look."

it's more miller a for them as it has the surface low in northern Alabama then 12 hrs later centered over Wilmington.

[tnweathernut]

it's more miller a for them as it has the surface low in northern Alabama then 12 hrs later centered over Wilmington.

I didn't know A vs. B was geographic dependent?  

 

I am more interested in where we go from Saturday than this storm this weekend.  I was feeling good about how the pattern evolved fromChristmas to New Year time period up until the last 24-48 hours and now I wonder what that period will look like.

[franklin NCwx]

well I guess its not but the low does transfer so I guess that is the technical meaning of a miller B

[franklin NCwx]

well I guess its not but the low does transfer so I guess that is the technical meaning of a miller B

[Jon]

I didn't know A vs. B was geographic dependent?  

 

I am more interested in where we go from Saturday than this storm this weekend.  I was feeling good about how the pattern evolved fromChristmas to New Year time period up until the last 24-48 hours and now I wonder what that period will look like.

 

well I guess its not but the low does transfer so I guess that is the technical meaning of a miller B

17/50 have the miller B look at this point, and that's being generous in usedtobe's favor. I think more like 50% have a Miller B transfer, and the Miller B sign on the ensemble is there. I'm not sure if that's "most" but I understand what Franklin is saying here, some that transferred I didn't count as Miller B because it transferred so quickly, it was hard to pinpoint the primary low. If I did that number would be closer to 50%...meaning still up in the air. I wish I could show you the spread in the low locations at 138hrs but it's a paid wxbell map, but for those who have wxbell check it out by going here http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/yeps_members.php and clicking low locations, hour 138, you can see two distinct areas of low means. One over SC/GA which is larger and one over eastern TN.

[calculus1]

Great early look at the storm next weekend from Brad P:

 

http://wxbrad.com/weekend-storm-is-looking-all-rain-right-now-except-for-the-mountains/

[deltadog03]

I am impressed with the possibility of SVR weather, as we were mentioning before.  The euro has a 60t LLJ here, and 95KT at 500mb.  CAPE is going to be very low, around 100-200.    New thoughts map is up on my FB page.

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Wxmanchris/690966551001476?ref=hl

[Brick Tamland]

Great early look at the storm next weekend from Brad P:

 

http://wxbrad.com/weekend-storm-is-looking-all-rain-right-now-except-for-the-mountains/

 

 

Probably the best part of it is this:

 

This weekend is the 1st storm in what will be an active storm track through the end of the year. Snow lovers this isn’t your storm yet! This is the one that lays the groundwork for the next few.

[packbacker]

Probably won't end up mattering, but the 12z Euro is further south than the 0z at 108 hours....

[deltadog03]

I agree with Brad, this storm HAS to happen to start the pattern change.  BTW, euro looks a little weaker in the southern piece of energy but further south as well.  I have a feeling this will be weaker and further south.  NOTHING like the GFS, but not as bundled so far through 18z FRI  HR102  SFC low NEAR HOU

[packbacker]

Euro is way SE at 120, SLP over the FL panhandle.