Wintry/Severe/Normal Storm threat 12/19-21

[GaWx]

I recommend people ignore the silly Euro clown lol in NC CAD areas.

[RONALD B]

I recommend people ignore the silly Euro clown lol in NC CAD areas.

the east trend is back on nc is back in the game

[HKY18]

I recommend people ignore the silly Euro clown lol in NC CAD areas.

so zr instead of snow that clown map shows?

[WxBlue]

so zr instead of snow that clown map shows?

 

Surface temperature isn't cold enough outside peaks of Southern Apps, but 850 mb might be west of I-85.

 

 

the east trend is back on nc is back in the game

 

Not quite.

[GaWx]

so zr instead of snow that clown map shows?

 

It thinks ZR/IP is SN.When will it ever learn?

[WxBlue]

And we got our possible Christmas low leaving Mexico now. Let's see what we got...

 

EDIT: Guess Euro held it back SW longer this time around.

[superjames1992]

That's a hell of a Miller B.  Damn.  Verbatim, the Euro shows hours and hours of 32/RN here from what I can tell with 850s mostly in the +2C range.  Looks like Mt. Airy gets a bad ice storm.

 

Of course, the clown somehow spits out 6" of "snow".

 

The WV panhandle is annihilated.

 

Model wars continue.  The Euro seems to be locked in, more or less, but the GFS/PGFS/GGEM look quite different.  We'll see.

[superjames1992]

I'm just going to post this real quick before I hit the sack...

We have our first (sort of) weenie DGEX run of the season (for some):

00z EPS looks much improved with mean "snowfall" at KGSO up to nearly 3" and well over half of the members showing wintry precip. The probability map also seems to show ~50% probability over > 1" of snow. We'll see if its a blip or not tomorrow, though this is the second run in a row mean wintry precip has nearly doubled.

[franklin NCwx]

lol are u drinking ?this run of the euro was a miller A but the trend se is there !

no it was a miller b. Primary goes to nW Alabama then transfers to Wilmington. Ens mean looks similar.

[burgertime]

no it was a miller b. Primary goes to nW Alabama then transfers to Wilmington. Ens mean looks similar.

 

Yep, while there as a bit of a southern jog still a Miller B for sure. I'll be interested to see the Euro runs of today tomorrow to see if that jog continues. Amazing how far apart the GFS and Euro are right now. 

[Hvward]

Euro ensemble still wants to bring something frozen to Asheville. Around 42/50 to be exact. BL temps hoover between 32-35 through the event though so I bet we see a few snowflakes to sleet transition, then a sleet to rain turnover by the end. Who knows though really at this point in time. I agree that it is crazy to see how far apart the GFS and Euro are in the 5-6 day range. Typically this is where the Euro is at its best, so we will see if that continues to hold true for this storm.

[Lowpressure]

And shortly we get to add the NAM to the fun and games!

[burgertime]

For the Piedmont as of right now I wouldn't be worried about ZR. I've seen this a lot, models tend to overdue the ZR when it hovers around 32. Really for a big ZR event we need temps to hover around 29 or so. With such a weak CAD it will probably sit at 33 and rain with how the Euro depicts it.  

[msuwx]

Euro ensemble still wants to bring something frozen to Asheville. Around 42/50 to be exact. BL temps hoover between 32-35 through the event though so I bet we see a few snowflakes to sleet transition, then a sleet to rain turnover by the end. Who knows though really at this point in time. I agree that it is crazy to see how far apart the GFS and Euro are in the 5-6 day range. Typically this is where the Euro is at its best, so we will see if that continues to hold true for this storm.

The European ensemble mean is in lock-step with the operational. Interesting system for NW NC at least. 

 

TV mets are forced by powers that be/ station managers to not speculate on wintry threats until its almost a slam dunk.

Just to clear this up, I have never in my entire career had a news director or GM tell me what to say in my forecasts. 

[calculus1]

The European ensemble mean is in lock-step with the operational. Interesting system for NW NC at least. 

 

Just to clear this up, I have never in my entire career had a news director or GM tell me what to say in my forecasts. 

 

Welcome back for the winter season, Matthew!  I hope to see you post more and more often.  I also appreciate your daily weather video briefings.  Great work as always!

[franklin NCwx]

The European ensemble mean is in lock-step with the operational. Interesting system for NW NC at least.

Just to clear this up, I have never in my entire career had a news director or GM tell me what to say in my forecasts.

hey Matt good to see you around. What are your current thoughts on how this system evolves?

[msuwx]

Welcome back for the winter season, Matthew!  I hope to see you post more and more often.  I also appreciate your daily weather video briefings.  Great work as always!

 

 

hey Matt good to see you around. What are your current thoughts on how this system evolves?

 

Thanks guys! I will be around to post as interesting systems move through. 

 

As for the upcoming system Saturday, I am still trying to get a good feel for it. However, whenever you have excellent agreement with the operational and ensemble mean of the European, that's often a tough combo to beat. We will see. 

[FallsLake]

RAH still in a wait and see mode:

 

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DEVIATION IN
THE MODELS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT CENTRAL NC ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH AGREE
THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY AND
MOVE GENERALLY EAST OR NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...A
TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE MIDWEST...DEEPER/MORE AMPLIFIED AND A BIT
SLOWER IN THE ECMWF VERSUS THE QUICKER AND LESS AMPLIFIED GFS
SOLUTION. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER SOLUTION...HOWEVER
BOTH MODELS GENERATE PRECIP OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL NC BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE CONTINUED MODEL DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTY...CONFIDENCE
IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LOW...BUT THERE IS RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THERE
WILL BE PRECIP ON SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WHETHER THERE
WILL BE ANY P-TYPE OR SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON
THE POSITION AND TIMING OF THE LOW AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE REGION.
GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...UNCERTAINTY...AND LOW CONFIDENCE NOTED
ABOVE...WILL REFRAIN FROM GOING THROUGH EVERY POSSIBLE SCENARIO AND
JUST NOTE TWO THINGS. FIRST...ANY P-TYPE CONCERNS WOULD BE LIMITED
TO THE FAR NORTH AND WEST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH FOR NOW KEEP TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND THE
PRECIP LIQUID. SECOND...IF THERE IS A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...IT
WOULD LARGELY BE LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST...BUT FOR NOW MENTION
OF THUNDER IS LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO HINGE
ON HOW THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THAT
ASPECT OF THE FORECAST AS WELL...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW
40S TO LOW 50S FROM NW TO SE ON SATURDAY...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID
30S. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SUNDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...COOLER OVERNIGHT...LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

 

[CandymanColumbusGA]

Thanks guys! I will be around to post as interesting systems move through. 

 

As for the upcoming system Saturday, I am still trying to get a good feel for it. However, whenever you have excellent agreement with the operational and ensemble mean of the European, that's often a tough combo to beat. We will see. 

Yeah, I've been highlighting this time-frame in my emails to the rest of the team. It won't be snow/ice for us here in Georgia/Alabama, but severe is a possibility. We've already had 2 tornadoes before Thanksgiving and this southern storm track means we'll be flirting with severe for almost every storm. Those in Florida are also going to have to deal with more severe weather threats than usual with the southern stream going strong. Should be fun to track for you guys over the coming days.

[packbacker]

I'm just going to post this real quick before I hit the sack...

We have our first (sort of) weenie DGEX run of the season (for some):

00z EPS looks much improved with mean "snowfall" at KGSO up to nearly 3" and well over half of the members showing wintry precip. The probability map also seems to show ~50% probability over > 1" of snow. We'll see if its a blip or not tomorrow, though this is the second run in a row mean wintry precip has nearly doubled.

 

It's interesting, the mean for GSO is more than that for BOS, that was a definite shift south on the EPS from previous runs.

[deltadog03]

I can some severe possibly for us candyman. Wind shear is gonna be thru the roof.

[tnweathernut]

Anyone have any Miller A vs. Miller B thoughts on the 0z Euro op and ensembles from last night?  It does appear as if the Euro is LOCKED on a storm happening.

 

I don't think we can discount other solutions that cut the low to the Ohio Valley or the ones that shred the system as it comes east, but I do think we can say the chances of either of those solutions happening are much smaller than what the Euro is showing.

 

So here is my question. The Euro and it's ensembles look VERY miller A'ish from 96 to 120, but then transition to a Miller B look (though it gives the appearance of a primary from east central Louisana to Myrtle Beach. I can't see in between panels, so maybe a met with access can discuss ....................

 

Is this more a hybrid A/B?

[franklin NCwx]

It's more miller b. The op and ensembles take the low to northern Alabama then transfer.

[dsaur]

Well, I certainly think Robert meant for his discussion to be taken seriously.  He definitely wasn't joking.  So, if the public takes it seriously, then they are responding just as he would hope they would.

 

Now, if the "widespread general public" act like idiots and panic and claim the end of the world is upon us because of the impending certainty of a snow disaster, then that's on them for their inability to differentiate the nuances between possibilities and guarantees.  I do not blame mass hysteria on level-headed, well-reasoned posts by experienced meteorologists.  I blame mass hysteria on naive, reading-comprehension-challenged, social-networking fanatics with smart phones.

Atlanta last year proved that nothing can stop the public like an inch of snow onto freezing streets.  Doesn't take a big storm, doesn't take hype, or lack of hype.  Just takes a general unawareness of ones surroundings, inability to be self sufficient, a lack of curiosity, and/or complete apathy, and numbing inability for masses to act sensibly without direction, because individuality is subsumed into the weakest lemming link, and you too can be sleeping in your car while the temps crash   Then blaming the National Weather Service for your own failure to take responsibility for your actions, and well being.  If in doubt, stay home.  What's gonna happen if you don't go to work?  Have to sleep on the streets? So what else is new?  T

[Brick Tamland]

Thanks guys! I will be around to post as interesting systems move through. 

 

As for the upcoming system Saturday, I am still trying to get a good feel for it. However, whenever you have excellent agreement with the operational and ensemble mean of the European, that's often a tough combo to beat. We will see. 

 

I know winter is really starting when East comes on board!

 

Looks like the Euro is the only one showing anything wintry for NC. Like others have said, crazy how far apart the Euro and GFS are. Hopefully the Euro is right and this is the beginning of the pattern change for winter.

[deltadog03]

Glad your hear East. Always like your posts. This screams Mike B all the way. I'm not gonna lie, it's gonna be a very though feat to beat the EURO when the OP and ENS are in good agreement. Does it mean is slam dunk it wins, oh hell no. However, let's face it, it's a better model than ours, and the GFS will really struggle at times this year because of the energy in the pattern. Progressive models, like the GFS and CMC don't like El Niño anything because there is too much going on.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Glad your hear East. Always like your posts. This screams Mike B all the way. I'm not gonna lie, it's gonna be a very though feat to beat the EURO when the OP and ENS are in good agreement. Does it mean is slam dunk it wins, oh hell no. However, let's face it, it's a better model than ours, and the GFS will really struggle at times this year because of the energy in the pattern. Progressive models, like the GFS and CMC don't like El Niño anything because there is too much going on.

 The GFS has had a history of spitting out invalid solutions during a pattern transition. Once the transition is complete, the agreement between the models will be better as well as the LR verification scores. Let's get this pattern change out of the way and then we can see what's coming down the pipeline.

  As for the Euro solution, I would not be too hasty to discount it. I believe it has a better handle on things than the American model. Let's see what today's suite has to show us. it should give us clues as to where we are trending. One thing is fairly certain.... the change is underway.

[burgertime]

 The GFS has had a history of spitting out invalid solutions during a pattern transition. Once the transition is complete, the agreement between the models will be better as well as the LR verification scores. Let's get this pattern change out of the way and then we can see what's coming down the pipeline.

  As for the Euro solution, I would not be too hasty to discount it. I believe it has a better handle on things than the American model. Let's see what today's suite has to show us. it should give us clues as to where we are trending. One thing is fairly certain.... the change is underway.

 

GFS and CMC have looked god awful. You can see how the GFS is trying to shift to the Euro but can't quite figure it out at 5h. CMC just is beyond terrible with this system. I guess there is a chance it totally fizzles out but no way you get that much energy floating around and nothing interacts. 

[Jon]

Thought I'd share, after going for a bomb, then a miller B, then squashing the storm like the CMC, the Chinese model has come full circle and shows a Miller B once again.

[deltadog03]

12z GFS running and the differences are just LAUGHABLE at 12z THUR at H5 vs the EURO.  GFS is strung out like a junkie.  LOL  EURO more consolidated with the southern energy into N Mexico.  No way in You know what that will shouldn't just come eastward.