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Wintry/Severe/Normal Storm threat 12/19-21

deltadog03

By deltadog03,
in Southeastern States

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

RAH still keeping the door open to a possibility of wintery precip (and even severe):

 

<Clipped Long Range Discussion>

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ON FRIDAY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT... AS A SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST
STATES AND TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL DIFFERS IN HOW
STRONG THE SYSTEM WILL BE AND RESULTANT TRACK. HOWEVER... IT STILL
APPEARS THAT WE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP ON SATURDAY.
THUS... HAVE RAISED POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE. WE SHOULD SEE SOME SORT
OF CAD DEVELOP... AS WE WILL INITIALLY HAVE A DECENT SURFACE HIGH
LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... MUCH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO THE FINER DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM AND WHAT
TYPE OF SURFACE LOW CONFIGURATION WE WILL HAVE. THUS... WILL ONLY
TREND TEMPS TOWARDS THE COOLER RAW MODEL GUIDANCES. WHILE ITS NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE SOME MIX OF WINTRY
PRECIP AND/OR FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP ON SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND/OR CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN
TO SNOW AS PRECIP IS ENDING ON SATURDAY EVENING... WILL KEEP ALL
PRECIP LIQUID FOR NOW. IN FACT THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT WE CAN NOT EVEN ENTIRELY RULE
OUT A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY (LOW
PROBABILITY CURRENTLY THOUGH). WPC PREFERS TO GO WITH THE ECENS
MEAN... WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF. THUS... WILL TREND THE
FORECAST COOLER... WITH A DAMMING FLAVOR. HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY IN
THE UPPER 30S NW TO LOWER 50S SE (AND COULD BE COOLER).
 

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

The sharp gradient in NC that's being talked about is the norm. As was stated it was very common in the 80s and 90s. I see it first hand continuously with ptype transitions, accums e.t.c.

The last big one involving just snow accums was the previous Christmas storm of 2010. Saw slop and white rain all day and 10 Miles to my west lay almost 4 inches of snow compared to my bare ground.

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
Posted

The sharp gradient in NC that's being talked about is the norm. As was stated it was very common in the 80s and 90s. I see it first hand continuously with ptype transitions, accums e.t.c.

The last big one involving just snow accums was the previous Christmas storm of 2010. Saw slop and white rain all day and 10 Miles to my west lay almost 4 inches of snow compared to my bare ground.

that was a great storm! A foot of snow on Christmas with temps staying below freezing was a once and a lifetime event.
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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

Yea Franklin that was a good one. I got my years mixed up. I meant to refer to the pre Christmas storm of 2009. Christmas 2010 was awesome we got little over 5 here at the house on that one.

Anyway not expecting anything here but novelty stuff ice at best with this one. However I got this feeling the week of Chtistmas we.might be in business. Odds are way higher this year than our normal 5% with the pattern that will start unfolding latter this week.

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BlueRidgeFolklore

BlueRidgeFolklore

Posted
Posted

I would say it makes sense that the areas which average a lot more snow tend to cash in more often, though.  Areas in the western Piedmont and foothills are pretty much guaranteed to receive accumulating snowfall yearly, which is not necessarily the case in the Coastal Plain.

 

(I'm not sure this is updated for the 1981-2010 averages, but the point still stands).

 

ghsnowcl.gif

 

Statistically, Asheville averages nearly eight times more snowfall per winter than Wilmington.  Greensboro averages roughly four times more snowfall per winter.  Etc.  You see the same kind of deal in the Mid-Atlantic, where the N/W burbs of DC average a lot more snowfall per winter than DC itself and S/E.

 

 

No way is that map right. 6-9 over the Smokies, and 9-12 in Northern Madison County? They get that by mid-November is seems on most years. Lol.

 

Exaggeration I know, but no way is that right.

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jacobr57

jacobr57

Posted
Posted

Seems as if there is a Robert first call/ possibility of a weekend snow map floating around on the other board! Gonna need Rain Cold to confirm?!

 

There was a quick update a few hours ago with a map outlining areas with increasing likelihood for a significant winter storm, along with areas potentially receiving ice and thunderstorms.

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

There was a quick update a few hours ago with a map outlining areas with increasing likelihood for a significant winter storm, along with areas potentially receiving ice and thunderstorms.

I think that's his illustrated European output map not really a first call map

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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

Posted
Posted

Seems as if there is a Robert first call/ possibility of a weekend snow map floating around on the other board! Gonna need Rain Cold to confirm?!

 

 

He does have a prelim first map on where the precip lines up, running close to the Euro...but he's been very adamant about those on the southern border of liquid/frozen precip and how that could be adjusted over time.

His site also has an update!

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

I didn't really see any ice here on the Euro.  Looked like 33/RN to me.  Maybe Robert thinks the Euro is too warm, though it looks like one of those classic situations where we start out with ZR, at best, and quickly turn over to 33/RN due to latent heat release.

 

I remember with the February 5, 2010 storm (SNOWMAGEDDON), we started out with heavy snow in the morning (3" total), then turned over to sleet at dawn, and then over to rain around 8:30 AM once the Miller B ushered in enough WAA.  It rained for the rest of the day and the temperature never climbed above 33.  Fun times.  A great winter!  I think the northern foothills, such as Mt. Airy, hung on with the snow a bit longer (I think some areas up there got significant icing).  It was a real surprise as I don't think we expected much front-end stuff.

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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
Posted

Not a first call, but outlining an area and putting the words" significant snow storm" at 6 days out, with basically the Euro run, is kind of going out on a limb...

 

Looks like evidence of a good met to me:  someone who is willing to call it as he sees it, even five days out.  If he's wrong, he's wrong.  But at least he didn't wait until 24 hours out before he was willing to make a forecast.  I like this approach.  If I want climatology alone to govern my forecast, I can look up the stats just as good as the next person.  I don't need a met for that.

 

7u02snH.png

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted

Looks like evidence of a good met to me:  someone who is willing to call it as he sees it, even five days out.  If he's wrong, he's wrong.  But at least he didn't wait until 24 hours out before he was willing to make a forecast.  I like this approach.  If I want climatology alone to govern my forecast, I can look up the stats just as good as the next person.  I don't need a met for that.

 

 

 

The problem is widespread general public will take his message seriously and it'll create unneeded hype. I don't like mets waiting until 24 hours out before calling either, but we're still 6-7 days out and we all know a lot can change. Even though Robert is good at his stuff, he got to know models will flip-flop a lot over the next several days. TV mets can't just show their viewers latest ECMWF run and be confident that NW NC mountains will get a foot of snow next week or people will call for their heads very quickly. I do think they're little too conservative at times, but they do have job security on line.

 

It's worth noting I've seen couple of meteorologists hinting stormy pattern today, though.

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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
Posted

The problem is widespread general public will take his message seriously and it'll create unneeded hype. I don't like mets waiting until 24 hours out before calling either, but we're still 6-7 days out and we all know a lot can change. Even though Robert is good at his stuff, he got to know models will flip-flop a lot over the next several days. TV mets can't just show their viewers latest ECMWF run and be confident that NW NC mountains will get a foot of snow next week or people will call for their heads very quickly. I do think they're little too conservative at times, but they do have job security on line.

 

It's worth noting I've seen couple of meteorologists hinting stormy pattern today, though.

 

Well, I certainly think Robert meant for his discussion to be taken seriously.  He definitely wasn't joking.  So, if the public takes it seriously, then they are responding just as he would hope they would.

 

Now, if the "widespread general public" act like idiots and panic and claim the end of the world is upon us because of the impending certainty of a snow disaster, then that's on them for their inability to differentiate the nuances between possibilities and guarantees.  I do not blame mass hysteria on level-headed, well-reasoned posts by experienced meteorologists.  I blame mass hysteria on naive, reading-comprehension-challenged, social-networking fanatics with smart phones.

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted

Well, I certainly think Robert meant for his discussion to be taken seriously.  He definitely wasn't joking.  So, if the public takes it seriously, then they are responding just as he would hope they would.

 

Now, if the "widespread general public" act like idiots and panic and claim the end of the world is upon us because of the impending certainty of a snow disaster, then that's on them for their inability to differentiate the nuances between possibilities and guarantees.  I do not blame mass hysteria on level-headed, well-reasoned posts by experienced meteorologists.  I blame mass hysteria on naive, reading-comprehension-challenged, social-networking fanatics with smart phones.

 

It's the bold part I'm worried about. You'll be surprised how little public understand even the basics of meteorology, especially when it come to possibilities/guarantees. TV mets know this and that's why they're always conservative until we get into short-range or we would be having a hysteria once a week during winter when most of them are completely unneeded.

 

Don't get me wrong. Robert is a great meteorologist with good track record and he can do whatever he want with his Facebook page (him and DT's are the only ones I trust long-range). I'm just saying I understand why TV meteorologists got to hold their cards closely. Anyway, this is banter stuff so we should get back to models :) I like your chances in Hickory with this upcoming storm.

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

It's the bold part I'm worried about. You'll be surprised how little public understand even the basics of meteorology, especially when it come to possibilities/guarantees. TV mets know this and that's why they're always conservative until we get into short-range or we would be having a hysteria once a week during winter when most of them are completely unneeded.

Don't get me wrong. Robert is a great meteorologist with good track record and he can do whatever he want with his Facebook page (him and DT's are the only ones I trust long-range). I'm just saying I understand why TV meteorologists got to hold their cards closely. Anyway, this is banter stuff so we should get back to models :) I like your chances in Hickory with this upcoming storm.

TV mets are forced by powers that be/ station managers to not speculate on wintry threats until its almost a slam dunk.
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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted

Not much difference between 00z and 12z run, although 50/50 low is little farther east at same time frame with stronger low entering Gulf of Mexico this time around. 

 

EDIT: Yup, stronger low this run and little more north. Think this one is another inland NC track.

 

EDIT2: It's slower than 12z run. This one will slam someone down the road very hard.

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