Wintry/Severe/Normal Storm threat 12/19-21

[NCSNOW]

Mount Airy new snow capital east of the mtns. As if the 19 inch storm last March to end the season wasn't enough, the snow God's want to get Big Frosty out of the gates early. Thing to take from euro is triad start as snow from rural hall nw and then change to ice/ cold rain Rest of us start as maybe quick flake sleet graupel then switch to cold rain imby and the transition line creeps nw for this run anyway till you get some elevation, 3000 ft all snow

[superjames1992]

The Euro tried to do something with the initial overrunning precip like the CMC did last night.

 

As for the actual storm, it looked great for the mountains, W TN, and VA, though I honestly didn't see any frozen precip in the Piedmont, despite the clown.  Nice 33-degree rain, verbatim.  Exciting.

 

I guess Mt. Airy might stay snow on this run, but it's right on the line.  Kind of hard to see them staying majority-snow with that setup, but who knows?  I thought the run looked different early on, but the end result was roughly the same.

[superjames1992]

BTW, the Canadian is set in its ways.  Another weak southern slider.  MODEL WARS.  It's actually too warm, anyways, for NC, though with a stronger system, I guess you never know.

 

I am probably going to ax any glimmer of hope for this one after tonight's 00z runs.  It's on life-support now, at best.  I'm pretty sure I would have already given up any hope if I didn't live in the NW Piedmont.  The mountains are obviously in better shape and I'd be excited if I were there.

[franklin NCwx]

The euro has a surface low in nW Georgia. That's a good track for Nashville!

[franklin NCwx]

Ukmet is not as wound up as the euro.

[burgertime]

EPS looks about the same. Good run for TN, Mountains and looks lke it will be a good one for the MA as well. 

[packbacker]

BTW, the Canadian is set in its ways.  Another weak southern slider.  MODEL WARS.  It's actually too warm, anyways, for NC, though with a stronger system, I guess you never know.

 

I am probably going to ax any glimmer of hope for this one after tonight's 00z runs.  It's on life-support now, at best.  I'm pretty sure I would have already given up any hope if I didn't live in the NW Piedmont.  The mountains are obviously in better shape and I'd be excited if I were there.

 

I definitely wouldn't throw in the towel after looking at the 12z EPS members, there is a nice cluster around the mean, several a tick SE of the mean which would be big for you.  I think anyone GSO and points NW are still very much in the game.  Maybe something like a 1/22/87 could occur, maybe not as deep but something similar.  The Euro seems locked in now, you get it do day 5 with this SLP track and it's not going to waver to much.

 

[superjames1992]

I definitely wouldn't throw in the towel after looking at the 12z EPS members, there is a nice cluster around the mean, several a tick SE of the mean which would be big for you.  I think anyone GSO and points NW are still very much in the game.  Maybe something like a 1/22/87 could occur, maybe not as deep but something similar.  The Euro seems locked in now, you get it do day 5 with this SLP track and it's not going to waver to much.

 

Do you know what the setup was for that January 1987 storm?  I believe that's the biggest storm GSO has had since probably at least the 1960s.  I am curious how inland the low tracked.  It's not too often RDU basically gets nothing while we get plastered (usually, RDU will at least get something).

 

EDIT: Looks like the EPS mean snowfall has doubled again here to 1.6".  Looks like about half of the members show wintry precip and there's a few big dogs in there.  CLT, RDU, and pretty much anyone S/E of here are <1" with only a few members showing wintry precip.  Probability of >1" of snow looks like ~30% here and <10% in RDU and CLT.  Mt. Airy and the mountains are >50%.

[Hvward]

Wow 12z euro ensemble was much better for Asheville on this run compared to the 0z even though the OP was the exact opposite.  Ensemble has around 37 members with some form of snow (getting hard to tell which have the event now with multiple threats) and more big dogs then I have seen this year showing up (6 members with 9"+).  Not going to get too excited about this because I still think we will be battling BL temps, but it is encouraging to see the ensemble much improved on the 12z run.  Nothing is set in stone yet with this low track and 50 miles to the west of what is being shown could bring a multitude of various precip types to the valleys of the Apps.  

 

other 12z ensemble accumulating members count...

 

Boone: 42/50 (49/50 with some form of accumulation in the next 10 days)

 

Franklin: 35/50 ( a few with just a NWF look like KAVL)

 

Greensboro: 21/50

 

Hickory: 24/50

 

Raleigh: 13/50

 

Mt. Airy: 28/50

 

Charlotte: 13/50

 

GSP: 12/50

[griteater]

Do you know what the setup was for that January 1987 storm?  I believe that's the biggest storm GSO has had since probably at least the 1960s.  I am curious how inland the low tracked.  It's not too often RDU basically gets nothing while we get plastered (usually, RDU will at least get something).

 

It had a big +PNA ridge with northern/southern stream phasing...sfc low went right up the coastline.  You can scroll through the frames here - http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1987/us0122.php

[nflwxman]

I definitely wouldn't throw in the towel after looking at the 12z EPS members, there is a nice cluster around the mean, several a tick SE of the mean which would be big for you.  I think anyone GSO and points NW are still very much in the game.  Maybe something like a 1/22/87 could occur, maybe not as deep but something similar.  The Euro seems locked in now, you get it do day 5 with this SLP track and it's not going to waver to much.

 

 

What a strong gradient in the piedmont. I'm not strongly familiar with NC snowstorm climatology, but is that common down there?

[GaWx]

Wow 12z euro ensemble was much better for Asheville on this run compared to the 0z even though the OP was the exact opposite.  Ensemble has around 37 members with some form of snow (getting hard to tell which have the event now with multiple threats) and more big dogs then I have seen this year showing up (6 members with 9"+).  Not going to get too excited about this because I still think we will be battling BL temps, but it is encouraging to see the ensemble much improved on the 12z run.  Nothing is set in stone yet with this low track and 50 miles to the west of what is being shown could bring a multitude of various precip types to the valleys of the Apps.  

 

other 12z ensemble accumulating members count...

 

Boone: 42/50 (49/50 with some form of accumulation in the next 10 days)

 

Franklin: 35/50 ( a few with just a NWF look like KAVL)

 

Greensboro: 21/50

 

Hickory: 24/50

 

Raleigh: 13/50

 

Mt. Airy: 28/50

 

Charlotte: 13/50

 

GSP: 12/50

 

Be wary of the EPS due to the flawed snow Euro accumulation algorithm, especially if there's any CAD. That feeds into the EPS members' snow amounts, too. They have the same problems.

[superjames1992]

It had a big +PNA ridge with northern/southern stream phasing...sfc low went right up the coastline.  You can scroll through the frames here - http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1987/us0122.php

 

Thank you.  Interesting track, a little inland.  I guess that's why RDU missed out.  Usually, that wouldn't work out here, either.

 

What a strong gradient in the piedmont. I'm not strongly familiar with NC snowstorm climatology, but is that common down there?

 

I've never seen such a gradient in my years following the weather here (I can't find anything similar through at least 2000).  That gradient is crazy with you going from 10" to 2" in just 25 miles or so.  Sometimes, we score while Raleigh doesn't (and vice versa), but it's unusual for one to be basically blanked like that while the other gets close to a foot.  I'd speculate the GSO area mixed a little, too, based on the higher totals in the foothills.

 

That said, we do get sharp gradients in storms, as show below.

 

Situations like this are not infrequent:

 

 

January 2000 had a sharp gradient in the other direction:

 

[Marion_NC_WX]

What a strong gradient in the piedmont. I'm not strongly familiar with NC snowstorm climatology, but is that common down there?

 

 

A lot of the old 1980's storms, true ENE or NE moving Miller-A storms, had a sharp cutoff line that usually fell somewhere in the Western Piedmont

[FallsLake]

What a strong gradient in the piedmont. I'm not strongly familiar with NC snowstorm climatology, but is that common down there?

NC can get big storms but usually somebody gets screwed. Very few times that everybody is happy. This of course is one of my favorites.

 

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/

[burgertime]

What a strong gradient in the piedmont. I'm not strongly familiar with NC snowstorm climatology, but is that common down there?

 

I would say it's fairly common especially as you move east past Charlotte along 85. I've been on that line many many times where just 30 miles west gets 4+ inches and CLT gets around 1. 

[Hvward]

Be wary of the EPS due to the flawed snow Euro accumulation algorithm, especially if there's any CAD. That feeds into the EPS members' snow amounts, too. They have the same problems.

 

Yeah I am, BL temps look to be a problem.  Just passing along what I can count and what is showing up.  Anyone getting excited over 10-15/50 ensemble members showing snow needs to rethink their approach.  Weatherbell or better yet the Euro should work on the algorithm, but at least it is fun to look at lol.  Have to take it with a grain of salt.

[burgertime]

Well the 18z made a big shift west with it's cut but still not quite a Miller B like the Euro had. 

[Webberweather53]

What a strong gradient in the piedmont. I'm not strongly familiar with NC snowstorm climatology, but is that common down there?

 

 I certainly notice a tendency, especially in El Nino years to see these strong NW gradient snows which essentially are an enhancement of climatology... Areas around a line from about the VA border thru Roxboro, Greensboro, & Statesville, & points north & west tend to really cash consistently during these kind of winters. Once you go southeast of Raleigh & Charlotte, you're mostly relying on one storm to do most, if not all of the heavy lifting in terms of snowfall, last yr however, was a clear exception...

 

Another storm I'll add to the list of recent memory in terms of NW gradient snows is January 29-30 2010... Here in Fayetteville, we were expecting a massive ice storm, luckily the layer of cold air just above the surface was just deep enough to support sleet for the majority of the event, our neighbors to our south in Robeson & Bladen counties weren't so lucky. I picked up 4 inches of pure sleet in that storm. Considering liquid ratios for sleet are somewhere in the vicinity of 3:1, if that was all snow, I would have probably picked up somewhere around a foot of snow, dang...

 

 

These snowfall gradients in individual storms feedback to the entire winter as a whole. Take 2002-03 winter for example, one heck of a gradient in totals between the coastal plain & the Western Piedmont...

[superjames1992]

I would say it makes sense that the areas which average a lot more snow tend to cash in more often, though.  Areas in the western Piedmont and foothills are pretty much guaranteed to receive accumulating snowfall yearly, which is not necessarily the case in the Coastal Plain.

 

(I'm not sure this is updated for the 1981-2010 averages, but the point still stands).

 

 

Statistically, Asheville averages nearly eight times more snowfall per winter than Wilmington.  Greensboro averages roughly four times more snowfall per winter.  Etc.  You see the same kind of deal in the Mid-Atlantic, where the N/W burbs of DC average a lot more snowfall per winter than DC itself and S/E.

[burgertime]

Not sure where to post this but the GFS PARA is very close for the Christmas store. Low is bombing off the coast. Takes about the perfect track just not enough cold air in place.

[wxjunkie]

This is very true, having grown up in the western burbs. DCA had 32.4 inches of snow last winter, while IAD had 52.8...LOLL

 

I remember sooooooo many times growing up where DCA flipped to rain or sleet, while IAD remained snow-heavy at times for the duration of the event.

[superjames1992]

Not sure where to post this but the GFS PARA is very close for the Christmas store. Low is bombing off the coast. Takes about the perfect track just not enough cold air in place.

 

Perfect track coming out of the Gulf at D9.  Strong storm, too, at 1001 mb heading towards the FL panhandle.

[burgertime]

Perfect track coming out of the Gulf at D9.  Strong storm, too, at 1001 mb heading towards the FL panhandle.

 

Yep, one run of one alternate model lol....but I will say every model seems to put a big cutoff low in the baja...Euro just doesn't kick it out in time which plays to it's bias. PARA run this go round would make sense with it's evolution. 

[superjames1992]

Yep, one run of one alternate model lol....but I will say every model seems to put a big cutoff low in the baja...Euro just doesn't kick it out in time which plays to it's bias. PARA run this go round would make sense with it's evolution. 

 

Too bad about that powerful LP over the upper Midwest, though.  Ugly...  Need to work on that.

 

The regular 18z GFS was awful with the Christmas event, I see.

[Webberweather53]

I would say it makes sense that the areas which average a lot more snow tend to cash in more often, though.  Areas in the western Piedmont and foothills are pretty much guaranteed to receive accumulating snowfall yearly, which is not necessarily the case in the Coastal Plain.

 

(I'm not sure this is updated for the 1981-2010 averages, but the point still stands).

 

 

Statistically, Asheville averages nearly eight times more snowfall per winter than Wilmington.  Greensboro averages roughly four times more snowfall per winter.  Etc.  You see the same kind of deal in the Mid-Atlantic, where the N/W burbs of DC averages a lot more snowfall per winter than DC itself and S/E.

 

 

In a non-El Nino Winter, however this isn't necessarily the case, & we often see a vast array of tracks through the Carolinas, which aside from storms that strike when climatology is less favorable, especially for areas outside the mountains & NW Piedmont, these years clearly lack the robust gradient snows across the piedmont we often see time & time again in El Nino winters... 

 

Dec 1989

 

Jan 2000, up the middle, much like Jan 2002

 

January 2002, right up the heart of central NC

 

February 1984

 

December 2000

 

January 2011

 

January 2008

[deltadog03]

More thoughts on my FB page. Sorry it took so long. At six flags. Wxmanchris on Facebook

[burgertime]

Robert (Foothills) just posted on FB that he thinks the models are mishandling the vortex in the northeast...honestly I can't say I disagree every run does something different with it. For that reason he has ice as a potential for folks along I-85. Will probably have something more in depth on his site soon. 

[burgertime]

GFS ENS bias control run is interesting it looks like it sends that low for the 20th further south east. Looks more like the Euro. 

[RONALD B]

Y come no one has talked about the euro ensembles taking a more east track the ensemble mean even showing snow for northern parts of nc ?