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Wintry/Severe/Normal Storm threat 12/19-21

deltadog03

By deltadog03,
in Southeastern States

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Tacoma

Tacoma

Posted
Posted

GFS PARA also not anywhere close to being cold enough even for the mountains.

Yep I think from what you guys are putting out this morning we will be lucky to see any snow even in the wnc mtns.  I sure hope we do but it always seems like there is a monkey wrench thrown in after things look good for a couple of runs.  I want to commend everyone that puts out the interesting knowledge that I love reading and look forward to a fun and hopefully snowy winter coming up.  I just have a sneaky feeling we won't see a good snowstorm until after the first of the year.  Seems the cold air never wants to cooperate .  Then timing of cold air and moisture is so tough around here even in the wnc mtns.   Thanks again guys and look forward to a lot of good reading this winter.  :snowing:  :snowwindow:

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

I'm traveling to ohio through Virginia and West Virginia on Saturday. Trying to figure out if ill see anything except rain on the way.

Hi fellow pack grad! You'll see something, depending on the track of course and you should keep up with the trends but either way it looks like where you're going to be traveling will see something out of this especially if it's a miller B or the low stays intact and travels over Central NC, either way you get something in the mountains of VA and WV as you make your way to OH. Safe travels and make sure if this thing trends to heavy snows on those windy roads you don't risk it. Those turnpikes can be wild. I've only traveled on them when it was snowing once and we were on the way down so I felt better, didn't really pick up until we got into some flat land in VA.

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Webberweather53

Webberweather53

Posted
Posted

While it obviously helps, I don't think it's necessarily a necessity to have a snowpack in place prior to the storm.  We've had major winter storms with negligible snowpacks to our north before.

 

nsm_depth_2009121605_National.jpg

 

nsm_depth_2010120305_National.jpg

 

nsm_depth_2004022505_National.png

 

I just don't think we should write off any chances simply because we don't have a nice snowpack in the North (though I realize it hurts our chances).

 

 

You certainly have a point & after looking at all the RAH past events since 2000 I compiled a few images which I drew in the southern edge of the snow extent the day before a winter storm w/ varying degrees of resolution & added in the "average" placement of the southern edge of the snow extent in the higher resolution image, which follows the spine of the Appalachians & the I-70 corridor. Darker shades of blue represent overlapping between different events & hence a higher frequency of occurrence to see the southern edge of the snowpack reside over a particular region... 

US-Snow-cover-edge-NC-Snows-1-day-lag-10

US-Snow-Cover-NC-Snows-1-Day-Lag-Low-Res

 

 

There's certainly a lot of variance among individual events, but I think the obvious conclusion here is in order for us to have a significant chance at wintry wx during the course of the winter, we need to exceed climatology, & despite the variability it's quite rare for us to see a winter storm around here in NC if the snowpack doesn't at least generally extend down thru the I-90 corridor.

 

I derived these images from Rutgers Snow Lab & also provided their corresponding percentile that goes w/ the monthly climatology. 

 

December 

Rutgers-Snow-Lab-N-America-Snow-Climatol

 

January 

Rutgers-Snow-Lab-N-America-snow-climatol

 

February

North-America-Snow-Climatology-February.

 

 

Even w/ the passage of this upcoming winter storm over the upper midwest & Great Lakes, we're still going to be well outside the range of the 50th percentile for snow extent, that's if we intend on seeing wintry weather from the storm next week. Christmas however is an entirely different story...

 

gfs_asnow_us_14.png

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

MA is going to get crushed on this one as the low looks to bomb out just off the coast of VA. Heading up and pounding the NE.

Of course they are...lol. Looks like the 50/50 wasn't as strong and because of this couldn't influence the southern low's track as much, yielding a Miller B type look. Everything looked pretty good up until 120 to my eye.

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Of course they are...lol. Looks like the 50/50 wasn't as strong and because of this couldn't influence the southern low's track as much, yielding a Miller B type look. Everything looked pretty good up until 120 to my eye.

 

Yea I think TN and the mountains and VA still have a chance but anyone east is probably screwed....not that there was much of a chance to begin with. 

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

How's the longer run and the possible Christhmas storm? The cold still coming?

 

Tough to say right now. Euro is having a problem holding back that energy in the southwest. Models keep it kind of like this 12/20 storm. Not much cold air to really tap until after Christmas....but the right setup could get it done. 

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Boone: 12.1"

Greensboro: 3.5"

Winston-Salem: 4.5"

Asheville: 3" (Snow hole)

Mount Airy: 9.6"

Roanoke: 12.8"

Martinsville: 9.4"

 

East of a line from Roanoke Rapids/Greensboro/Hickory see little to no snow.

 

 

Thanks for the info...I have a very hard time buying Winston and GSO get that much just looked a little to warm for anyone outside of the mountains in NC. 

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Disc

Disc

Posted
Posted

Thanks for the info...I have a very hard time buying Winston and GSO get that much just looked a little to warm for anyone outside of the mountains in NC. 

 

Went back and took a look at the upper levels and GSO/Winston are hanging at around 3-5C at 850 during the height of the precip. I'd say they start as snow and then mix later on. Mountains are where you want to be for this one according to the Euro.

 

EDIT: Surface temps are "meh" too until later on.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

The Euro snow maps continue to be embarassingly bad and, as I've said, I don't use WB. (This is not a WB problem as much as an ECMWF problem...the source). It has several inches of SN in parts of NC for which the 850's are clearly above 0C throughout the 12/20 storm. SMH.

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burrel2

burrel2

Posted
Posted

IMO, the wound up low going too farth north and west for most in this forum is far from set in stone. The Ukmet,CMC, cmc ensembles, and even the chinese model(FWIW), all have a weak gulf low washing away as it moves due to east.

 

Plus, the Euro tends to lead the way in this time range, but has a tedency to be a little to wound up at this range, IMO.

 

Maybe we can find a middle of the road solution that tracks a moderate strength low along the gulf coast and ENE off the atlantic. (I know, wishful thinking)

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