Wintry/Severe/Normal Storm threat 12/19-21

[deltadog03]

Hey everyone!  I know this is a long time away, and we have plenty of time to watch it, but I think we all agree, there is going to be some kind of storm, even if its just a rain filled soaker.  Any who, I have been getting a lot of questions about what is the wedge from my viewers so I threw that in there as well.  Feedback is great.  I don't care if its good or bad.  IF you want to like my Facebook page and or twitter page that would rock as well, but you don't need too.  IF you do, thank you very much.  I am trying to expand those pages and get more interaction with y'all.  Please share the video and invite your friends to like the page as well.  Anyway, here ya go...Hope you enjoy!

 

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Wxmanchris/690966551001476?ref=hl

[Marion_NC_WX]

Excellent video...keep'em rolling in the future!

[deltadog03]

Excellent video...keep'em rolling in the future!

Thank you!  I plan on it.  It is so much easier to do that, than just type stuff out.  LOL  

[LithiaWx]

Great video, well done sir.

[deltadog03]

Great video, well done sir.

Thank you!  I appreciate it!

[deltadog03]

Well, GFS says, get ready for SEVERE weather for this system.  That would be a nice lakes cutter and SVR would easily be possible.  Is this idea possible, absolutely!  Then it tries to bring in a system near Christmas that would have some areas flirting with Wintry weather.  

[Jon]

Well, GFS says, get ready for SEVERE weather for this system.  That would be a nice lakes cutter and SVR would easily be possible.  Is this idea possible, absolutely!  Then it tries to bring in a system near Christmas that would have some areas flirting with Wintry weather.  

man you get the GFS fast...I'm out to 183

[Southern Track]

Great video Chris!

[Webberweather53]

Nicely done Chris, & I like the idea of severe wx (if anything) more so than wintry wx w/ this storm system specifically...

[deltadog03]

man you get the GFS fast...I'm out to 183

Thanks!  Ya, our weather vendor...WSI pushes it out quickly.

[deltadog03]

Great video Chris!

Thanks!

[deltadog03]

Nicely done Chris, & I like the idea of severe wx (if anything) more so than wintry wx w/ this storm system specifically...

Thank you sir!

[deltadog03]

The good doc is running, and is out to hour 126, 6z wed, and some noticeable changes. The energy around the great lakes, tues storm is more spread out and stronger.  keeping a nice look around the lakes.  thats more than 12z run. the energy to make up the next week storm is stronger and further south and about to make landfall in socal.

[Anonmet_GSO]

Hi Chris & the Board - first time poster, long time lurker, and big time weather hobbyist but not a MET thus "a non Meteorologist."

 

Really appreciate your emphasis on CAD, NE winds, and the principle winter wx type being frz rain.  So often I see CAD mentioned along with a snow forecast which in my 56 years of Carolina winters, rarely does CAD produce snow.

 

Reason being the high pressure by the very nature of it's dam'ing effect is in New England and therefore the winds bring modified air off the Atlantic which ends up warming the upper atmosphere.

 

Strong high pressure further west around the Great Lakes supplying NW winds to a coastal low that eventually takes over with it's ENE winds is the ticket, so again, thanks for highlighting the CAD/NE wind/icing connection - great teaching video and one that got me out of the closet - lol.

 

Hi to all of the NEWS14 peeps and everyone else.

Marc

[Jon]

The good doc is running, and is out to hour 126, 6z wed, and some noticeable changes. The energy around the great lakes, tues storm is more spread out and stronger.  keeping a nice look around the lakes.  thats more than 12z run. the energy to make up the next week storm is stronger and further south and about to make landfall in socal.

I'm up...lets hear a play by play

[deltadog03]

Hi Chris & the Board - first time poster, long time lurker, and big time weather hobbyist but not a MET thus "a non Meteorologist."

 

Really appreciate your emphasis on CAD, NE winds, and the principle winter wx type being frz rain.  So often I see CAD mentioned along with a snow forecast which in my 56 years of Carolina winters, rarely does CAD produce snow.

 

Reason being the high pressure by the very nature of it's dam'ing effect is in New England and therefore the winds bring modified air off the Atlantic which ends up warming the upper atmosphere.

 

Strong high pressure further west around the Great Lakes supplying NW winds to a coastal low that eventually takes over with it's ENE winds is the ticket, so again, thanks for highlighting the CAD/NE wind/icing connection - great teaching video and one that got me out of the closet - lol.

 

Hi to all of the NEWS14 peeps and everyone else.

Marc

sounds good...thanks for the kind words..welcome!

[deltadog03]

Through 6z Friday, the euro is about the same, from what I can tell with the 12z run.

[Jon]

A lot of moisture at 162 compared to 12z over TX/OK, this thing is cutting. Maybe it will allow a second wave to come under it as I do see some moisture hanging back near socal.

[deltadog03]

1040mb high, from what I can tell is starting to move over the northern/central great lakes.  Can see the isobars pushing in from the NE over the SE.  This looks like it might miller B...just like the12z run.

[superjames1992]

Looks further north than 12z so far from what I can tell.  Held back a little more, too.

 

EDIT: Eh, I don't know... we'll see where it goes.

[deltadog03]

by 00z sat, 1036mb, it looks like, high pressure is starting to really nose into the SE and low pressure starting to gather strength over SE TX.

[Jon]

1040mb high, from what I can tell is starting to move over the northern/central great lakes.  Can see the isobars pushing in from the NE over the SE.  This looks like it might miller B...just like the12z run.

Yeah it's weird seeing the vort just plow into the high but then keep getting fed from behind...there's a lot of energy there. At 144 you can see more energy come in off the coast of CA in norcal if you will and just phase.

[deltadog03]

Looks further north than 12z so far from what I can tell.  Held back a little more, too.

a little slower for sure this run..maybe 6 hours tho..not bad.

[deltadog03]

Looks wedgie for the CAD areas, but this run isn't going to cut it, IMO  looks almost SVR (ish) for the SE.  through 12z SAT

[deltadog03]

euro a strung out mess...storm yes, maybe more severe than anything else...its actually looks crappier than the gfs..lol  anywho we will see what shakes loose tomorrow.  good night everyone!

[Jon]

yeah definitely looks more Miller B-ish than 12z...still a 1006mb low off the coast at the end of the run but the cold is just not there compared to the 12z.....+2C in the mountains to +7C gradient over Greenville at 850mb over NC....No fantasy map this time. This seems like the realistic option for this system, not trying to cause any cliff diving just need to temper our expectations for this one.

[GaWx]

Nicely done, Chris! The wedgie is always an interesting topic and that should help people learn more about it.

[deltadog03]

Nicely done, Chris! The wedgie is always an interesting topic and that should help people learn more about it.

Thanks Larry!  I appreciate it.  I am interested to see what happens with time frame.  Might be dealing with Severe weather. 

[Jabcv14]

Very nice video! I'm really curious on what's going to happen here in the North Carolina Foothills. CAD usually brings us those nasty ice storms but some have given us snow before. Still going to watch this though. 

[deltadog03]

Very nice video! I'm really curious on what's going to happen here in the North Carolina Foothills. CAD usually brings us those nasty ice storms but some have given us snow before. Still going to watch this though. 

Thank you, I appreciate it.  I still feel like something is going to happen over the SE.  Is it SVR wx or wintry, or both...Models a little all over the place.